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The solar industry is a mess...
May 09, 2022 View Online | Sign Up | Shop

Morning Brew

eToro

Good morning. A few weeks ago we reported that airlines were planning to jack up prices for the summer travel season. After spending the weekend booking trips, I can confirm: They are definitely doing that.

Not that driving is any cheaper…

Neal Freyman

MARKETS: YEAR-TO-DATE

Nasdaq

12,144.66

S&P

4,123.34

Dow

32,899.37

10-Year

3.128%

Bitcoin

$34,188.23

Oil

$109.54

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 8:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: You don’t need us to tell you this, but your retirement fund is probably getting wrecked from the steep market sell-off. The 100 largest 401(k) funds are all in negative territory this year, and 88 of them have posted double-digit losses, according to data firm BrightScope.
  • Economy: If you’re one of the folks who believes we’re barreling toward a recession, you’ve got Bill Gates on your side. The billionaire told CNN yesterday that “I’m afraid the bears on this one have a pretty strong argument that concerns me a lot.”

ENERGY

What the Helios is going on with the solar industry?

Solar panels Paul Hennessy/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

The US solar industry is a hot mess right now. According to the Solar Energy Industries Association, 318 solar projects around the country, including one in Texas that would have powered more than 10,000 homes, have been canceled or delayed in recent weeks. That’s more than one-third of the US’ utility-scale solar development pipeline.

It’s all because of one company

In March, a small solar panel manufacturer in San Jose, Auxin Solar, asked the Commerce Dept. to launch an investigation into whether Chinese solar products were being illegally funneled through other Asian countries on their way to the US.

  • Illegal, because in 2012 the Obama administration slapped tariffs on Chinese solar panels in an attempt to help domestic manufacturers (like Auxin) compete with products that have been heavily subsidized by Beijing.

In response to Auxin’s petition, the Commerce Dept. began investigating the allegations that China was skirting tariffs. But, due to the threat of steep retroactive tariffs, that probe has driven up prices for solar parts and effectively frozen all imports of panels and components from those Asian countries (Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam). And receiving no imports from those countries is a big problem, because 82% of the most popular solar modules in the US come from there.

Solar advocates are livid with Auxin and the feds

Renewables leaders are flabbergasted that solar development has been put on ice at a time when the US needs to be ramping up clean-energy production to meet its climate targets. Amid mounting pressure on the Biden administration to step in, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo acknowledged the frustration but said her “hands are very tied” by a federal statute requiring the department to investigate claims of tariff avoidance.

Auxin, for its part, says the investigation into potential Chinese misbehavior is completely justified. “We don’t have a business if we don’t do something about this,” CEO Mamun Rashid told the Washington Post, adding that he is surprised to be deemed a villain in this story (the “Phantom Menace,” according to one clean power blogger).

Big picture: The Biden administration is having a tough time squaring the industry-wide freeze with its goal of halving the cost of solar electricity by 2030. And even if the investigation ultimately finds no wrongdoing, industry experts say the current uncertainty has already created long-lasting damage.

        

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WORLD

Tour de headlines

US First lady Jill Biden (L) offers flowers to Ukraine President wife Olena Zelenska Susan Walsh/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

Ukraine latest: First Lady Jill Biden made a surprise visit to Ukraine on Mother’s Day and met with Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska. It was the first public appearance by Zelenska since Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24. On the war front, a Russian strike killed around 60 people after flattening a school they were sheltering in the basement of, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

All hail the multiverse. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness brought in $185 million at the North American box office this weekend, good for the best opening of the year and the second-biggest opening of the pandemic era (Spider-Man: No Way Home is still No. 1). After a series of bummer releases during Covid, such as Eternals and Black Widow, Disney’s Marvel has to be relieved.

A new era in Northern Ireland. Sinn Féin, the largest Irish nationalist party, won the most seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly for the first time—a landmark victory for a group that has been linked to violence around Northern Ireland’s position within the UK in the late 20th century. Sinn Féin ultimately wants Northern Ireland to leave the UK and establish a united Ireland with its neighbor, the Republic of Ireland.

STARTUPS

The current mood in Silicon Valley

 Jared in Silicon Valley looking out of a window Silicon Valley/HBO via Giphy

Sentiment in Silicon Valley is the “most negative since the dot-com crash,” investor David Sacks tweeted. Layoff announcements are becoming more common than funding rounds, companies are scaling back growth plans, and even the LaCroix is starting to taste a little flat.

It’s a vibe shift. Venture funding nearly doubled to $669 billion from 2020 to 2021 as record-low interest rates and infinite optimism around the tech sector fueled a fundraising boom.

But now that the Fed is hiking interest rates and the economy slows down, private startups are facing the same challenges as their public market peers.

  • Dozens of fast-growing startups have announced layoffs in recent months, including Cameo, OnDeck, and Gopuff.
  • Tiger Global, the hedge fund with the most investments in private billion-dollar startups, is going through one of the worst stretches of any hedge fund in history, falling 44% so far this year and 15% in April alone.

Bottom line: With the record sums of money that flowed into Silicon Valley during the pandemic, tech startups were like a basketball player shooting on an eight-foot hoop. Now that investors are raising the bar on what they’ll fund, you’ll start to see the fundamentals-focused pros separate from the flashy-but-lacking-substance amateurs.

        

CALENDAR

The week ahead

Russian female officers march during a rehearsal of the Victory Day parade Russian female officers march during a rehearsal of the Victory Day parade. Tian Bing/China News Service via Getty Images

Victory Day in Russia: Today Russia will celebrate its most important holiday, Victory Day, which commemorates the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945. While much of the pageantry will be the same as ever (a huge military parade through Moscow’s Red Square, for example), there’s also a great deal of apprehension this year over whether President Vladimir Putin will announce an escalation of what Russia has called a “special military operation” in Ukraine into a full-scale war.

Inflation data: Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report is expected to show a drop in inflation from last month’s blistering 8.5% pace, but not by much. The Fed hiked interest rates the most in 22 years last week to push prices down faster.

Earnings: Coinbase, Disney, Palantir, AMC, Rivian, and Wendy’s will share their Q1 financials as earnings season winds down.

Everything else:

  • The Senate will vote on legislation that would codify abortion rights into law on Wednesday. While it’s not expected to pass, “Every American will see how every senator stands,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said.
  • Wednesday is Eat What You Want Day (this has the raw cookie dough lobby written all over it).
  • Beware: Friday is the 13th of the month.
        

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

Rich Strike with Sonny Leon up wins the the 148th running of the Kentucky Derby Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Stat: Rich Strike made a stunning charge down the final stretch to win the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. At 80–1 odds, the horse pulled off the second-biggest upset in Derby history. In fact, Rich Strike wasn’t even in the field until the day before the race, when another horse, Ethereal Road, was scratched. Here’s the overhead view of Rich Strike making his move.

Quote: “New Mexico is facing 100 straight hours of the worst possible set of fire conditions.”

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham warned residents of critical-to-extreme wildfire conditions that are about to hit the state (and the broader southwestern US) over the coming days. New Mexico is already being torched by the second-largest fire on record, the Calf Canyon fire, which has destroyed 170,665 acres and is 21% contained.

Read: The internet has become strangely nostalgic for life in the Middle Ages. (The Atlantic)

BREW'S BETS

Dive back into the week.

Good stuff: 18 little stories that will have a massive impact on your life.

Free leadership lessons: Join Kara Goldin, the founder of Hint Water, for a free 75-minute Morning Brew Leadership Workshop on May 18 at 7pm  ET. Register now to level-up as a leader and get a taste of the MB/L program.

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WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • A consortium led by American Todd Boehly, a part-owner of the LA Dodgers, agreed to buy Chelsea FC from Roman Abramovich for up to $4.9 billion.
  • Jared Kushner’s private equity fund reportedly plans to invest some of the $2 billion provided by Saudi Arabia into Israeli startups, signaling friendlier relations between the two countries.
  • Bitcoin continued to fall over the weekend, and is now almost 50% off its all-time high.
  • Bono and the Edge performed a set in a Kyiv subway station.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Turntable: Play the classic version here and the timed version here.

Character actors

Ncuti Gatwa, of Sex Education fame, has been named the latest actor to play Doctor Who in the long-running British sci-fi show. For today’s trivia, we’ll give you a list of actors, and you have to name the character (real or fictional) they played on-screen.

  1. Alec Guinness, Ewan McGregor
  2. Benedict Cumberbatch, Ian McKellen, Robert Downey Jr.
  3. Noomi Rapace, Rooney Mara
  4. Colin Farrell, Danny DeVito, Robin Lord Taylor
  5. Olivia Colman, Emma Thompson, Helen Mirren

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ANSWER

  1. Obi-Wan Kenobi
  2. Sherlock Holmes
  3. Lisbeth Salander
  4. Penguin
  5. Queen Elizabeth II

✢ A Note From eToro

Securities trading through eToro USA Securities, Inc. Member of FINRA and SIPC. Crypto Trading through eToro USA LLC, not FDIC insured.

         

Written by Neal Freyman

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