Finimize - 🤕 A recession isn’t a sure thing

Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for June 17th in 3:11 minutes.

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Today's big stories

Ferrari is finally taking meaningful steps into the EV business
There are four ways the Fed’s giant rate hike is likely to play out, and different ways to trade each of them – Read Now
UK online retailer Boohoo’s quarterly results were an out-and-out disappointment

Electric Supervehicle

What’s Going On Here?

Ferrari announced on Thursday that it’s investing billions into developing a slate of EVs.

What Does This Mean?

Ferrari has been working tirelessly for years to engineer its gas-fueled supercars into the perfect combination of deft handling and raw power. But EVs have been a distraction lately, sauntering into the garage and elbowing the jukebox like they’re the Fonz or something. That’s since forced the company to release a few hybrid models, which now make up 20% of its sales.

But even Ferrari has had to admit that it needs to move faster. So it’s now hoping to launch its first fully electric car in 2025, as well as make 40% of all sales fully electric within the following five years. And it’s just laid out a plan to do just that: the company is turning its flagship Italian factory into a hub for battery-powered cars, as part of a $4.6 billion investment that aims to make 60% of its models electric or hybrid by 2026.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Ferrari lays it on thick.
Ferrari’s shares have underperformed most of its EV-ready rivals lately, so Thursday’s announcement will have come as a relief to investors. And that’s before the company got to the non-EV-based good news: Ferrari said it was expecting its profit to climb by as much as 80% this year compared to last, it promised to boost shareholder dividends, and it said that it intends to buy back over $2 billion worth of its own shares by 2026.

Zooming out: Your Fiat will have to wait.
Thing is, Ferrari is actually better-placed than most to thrive in this environment. Its customers, after all, aren’t the sorts of people wringing their hands over inflation, given that they’re, well… rich. But most of us aren’t, which might be why data out on Thursday showed that European car sales fell 13% in May from the same time in 2021 – the 11th drop in a row.

You might also like: What investors are getting wrong about the EV market right now.

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Analyst Take

An Investor’s Guide To The Impending Recession (... Or Not)

Carl Hazeley, Analyst

So the Federal Reserve has just upped rates by 0.75% – the biggest jump since 1994.

Needless to say, this slam-on-the-brakes doesn’t bode particularly well for the US economy, nor that of the rest of the world.

But where we go from here isn’t set in stone: there’s a lot of talk about a recession, sure, but it’s not a foregone conclusion.

In fact, according to investment manager abrdn, there are four most likely scenarios here.

So that’s today’s Insight: each of the ways this could pan out, and how to invest whichever one you find yourselves in.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Boohoohoo

What’s Going On Here?

British online retailer Boohoo gave an upsetting quarterly results update on Thursday.

What Does This Mean?

Boohoo indeed: the company came into this update having admitted that it might not grow sales at all in the first half of its financial year, which started in March. It figured a slowdown was all but inevitable for a couple of reasons: because cash-strapped shoppers have been returning more clothes than usual, and because supply bottlenecks have clipped the wings of its fledgling US business.

So it surprised no one when Boohoo said on Thursday that its sales fell 8% from the same time last year, partly down to its first-ever drop-off in UK sales. The retailer – whose other brands include PrettyLittleThing and Nasty Gal – blamed intense competition, but it also said that comparing today’s inflation-bruised figures to last year’s post-lockdown boom didn’t do it any favors. And while Boohoo stood by its full-year revenue outlook, that isn’t saying much: it would still be the smallest uptick in sales since the company listed in 2014.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Every investor for themselves.
Rival ASOS is in exactly the same sinking ship as Boohoo, downgrading its sales growth forecast for the year from 10-15% to 4-7% on Thursday. Investors, for their part, clambered over each other to reach the exits: Boohoo and ASOS’s stocks dropped 15% and 20% after each of their announcements, meaning they’re now down 53% and 62% this year.

The bigger picture: The BoE plays catch-up.
Boohoo might want to spare some tears for when consumers are really pinching the pennies, because the Bank of England just upped its key interest rate by 0.25% for the fifth time in a row, bringing it to a 13-year high (tweet this). The central bank also said it’s now expecting inflation to top 11% later this year – up from its previous forecast of 10% – and that it was prepared to act “more forcefully” with rates going forward.

You might also like: All these rate hikes are bad for one group of stocks – until they’re not.

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💬 Quote of the day

“If you do things well, do them better.”

– Anita Roddick (a British businesswoman, human rights activist, and environmental campaigner)

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🌎 Finimize Live

🎉 Coming Up This Week

All events are in UK time.

😎 The Impact Of Web3 On Music, Culture, And Community: 12pm, June 17th
👉 Mining Crypto With IoT Devices: 6pm, June 17th
♻️ The Pros And Cons Of Investing In Green Energy Today: 12pm, June 21st
⛔️ How Not To Invest In The Next Luna: 1pm, June 22nd
🥕 Investing In The Rise Of Plant-Based Food: 1pm, June 23rd
🤗 Investing In Metaverse Opportunities: 5pm, June 23rd

💪 And Then After That…

♻️ Analysing Emerging Trends In Green Stocks: 5pm, June 27th
🇺🇸 How To Prepare For A Recession: 1pm, June 29th
🏠 Blockchain And Real Estate: What’s Next?: 6pm, June 29th

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