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Pennsylvania: More of The Same

Despite losing a seat in the US House, the state's congressional districts don't see much change.

Justin Brown

Jul 5

Districts are colored to match the party of the incumbent candidate.

Topline Takeaways

Pennsylvania is one of a handful of states to lose a congressional district in this redistricting cycle.
After Republicans failed to draw a map that would be passed by the state’s Democratic governor, the state Supreme Court stepped in to rectify the stalemate.
The state’s new congressional districts largely resemble the old ones as justices selected a citizen-submitted map that sought to maintain the status quo.

Who’s in Control?

Pennsylvania’s redistricting process is governed by the legislature and requires gubernatorial approval to adopt new maps. Republicans currently hold a majority in both of Pennsylvania’s legislative chambers and passed a new map that favored their party. The state’s Democratic Governor, Tom Wolf, quickly vetoed the map, forcing a stalemate.

The state Supreme Court stepped in to settle the matter in late February. Justices ultimately selected a map submitted by a group of citizens who sought to preserve the status quo, rather than draw radical new district lines. As a result, few partisan shifts are seen when comparing Pennsylvania’s old districts to its new ones.

New District Breakdown

The biggest change to Pennsylvania’s congressional districts is a loss of a seat, taking the state down to 17 representatives in the US House. Mapmakers opted to eliminate the old 12th district: a rural district along the state’s northern border with New York that supported Trump by 30+ points. The new map splits these voters into the neighboring 9th, 13th and 15th districts: all districts that already lean heavily toward Republicans.

Under this map, five of the state’s new districts are considered competitive: three lean slightly toward Democrats and two lean slightly toward Republicans. Two of these districts have incumbents running against the political headwinds. Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-1) will defend his suburban seat against Democratic challenger Ashley Ehasz despite voters supporting Joe Biden by 4 points in the last election. Up in Scranton, Democratic incumbent Matt Cartwright will have to find a way to stay afloat in the new PA-8 as his voters supported Trump by a slim 3-point margin in 2020. These will be among several races to watch in Pennsylvania come November.