Good morning, friends!

My Twitter timeline has become a sort of reality-bending carnival mirror.

Although I’ve curated it in such a way that I only follow what I consider to be pretty reasonable people, it’s not uncommon for me to see two back-to-back tweets that take the same fact and spin two contradictory narratives.

It’s mind-boggling.

From the state of the economy to the Russia-Ukraine war, people seem to be so adamant about their beliefs that they’re incapable of even considering another viewpoint. I recently read an article titled, “Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds.”

In it, cognitive scientists Steven Sloman and Philip Fernbach propose an interesting thought experiment: Think about the toilet in your home, an item with which your are quite familiar.

Now, you know what happens when you press the handle and the water goes down the drain, through the pipes and into the sewage system. But do you know how this actually happens?

If you’re anything like the Yale graduate students in this experiment, you probably don’t know as much as you think you do. In the study, the students were asked to rate their understanding of devices they encounter every day — like toilets, zippers, and cylinder locks. Afterward, they were asked to write a detailed, step-by-step explanation of how those things actually work. It turned out that all of these devices are way more complicated than you might imagine — and those are things you encounter every single day.

Sloman and Fernbach call this “the illusion of explanatory depth,” which refers to the belief that we know way more than we do.

Here’s an excerpt from the article that sent a shiver down my spine:

“Where it gets us into trouble, according to Sloman and Fernbach, is in the political domain.

“It’s one thing for me to flush a toilet without knowing how it operates, and another for me to favor (or oppose) an immigration ban without knowing what I’m talking about.

“Sloman and Fernbach cite a survey conducted in 2014, not long after Russia annexed the Ukrainian territory of Crimea. Respondents were asked how they thought the U.S. should react, and also whether they could identify Ukraine on a map. The farther off base they were about the geography, the more likely they were to favor military intervention. (Respondents were so unsure of Ukraine’s location that the median guess was wrong by eighteen hundred miles, roughly the distance from Kiev to Madrid.)”.

We can all learn something from this study. Next time that you feel a strong opinion coming on, ask yourself: Can I write a detailed step-by-step explanation before sharing my thoughts with others? In other words, figure out how the toilet works first and only then opine about it.

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THE PROFILE DOSSIER: On Wednesday, premium members received The Profile Dossier, a comprehensive deep-dive on a prominent individual. It featured Derren Brown, the psychological illusionist targeting your subconscious mind. Become a premium member and read it below.

The Profile

The Profile Dossier: Derren Brown, the Psychological Illusionist Targeting Your Subconscious Mind

As a magician, Derren Brown’s job is to mislead the human mind into believing something false. But Brown says he’s simply using magic as a tool to show us just how powerful our minds are when used with purpose. Unlike many of his peers, Brown is open about the fact that he doesn’t possess any supernatural abilities…

Read more

4 days ago · 5 likes · Polina Pompliano

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PROFILES.

— Hollywood’s leading man taking on a new role [**HIGHLY RECOMMEND**]
— The star of ‘Fifty Shades of Grey’
— The 88-year-old poker legend
— The visual identity designer behind Instagram
— The runners of the world’s most hellish race
— The startup revolutionizing the media landscape
— The boy band that took over the world

PEOPLE TO KNOW.

Hollywood’s leading man taking on a new role: We know him as a legendary leading man, a Hollywood power broker, maybe the greatest heartthrob of all time. But Brad Pitt isn’t attached to any of those old conceptions. In this profile, we learn that his ambitions for the rest of his life are more mystical than we ever could have imagined. (GQ)

“I’m one of those creatures that speaks through art. I just want to always make. If I’m not making, I’m dying in some way.”

The star of ‘Fifty Shades of Grey:’ The film “Fifty Shades of Grey” turned Dakota Johnson into a globally known name in 2015. It was that franchise of movies that defined her in the public imagination for years. But in this profile, she adds an asterisk: “I signed up to do a very different version of the film we ended up making.” (Vanity Fair)

“I’m proud of what we made ultimately and everything turns out the way it’s supposed to, but it was tricky.”

The 88-year-old poker legend: Doyle Bunson has been winning at poker for 70 years—long enough to become an icon and watch an outlaw’s game become an industry. Here’s how he became one of Texas’ most famous gamblers. (Texas Monthly)

“We don’t stop playing because we get old. We get old because we stop playing.”

The visual identity designer behind Instagram: Mackey Saturday is the principal designer behind Instagram, Unsplash, and Oculus. He specializes in “visual identity design,” which may include creating logos or re-designing the brand messaging. Here’s how Saturday captures the essence of a brand and brings it to life. (Clay Earth)

“I'm almost miserable sometimes in going through my own brain to get these ideas out.”

The runners of the world’s most hellish race: The Barkley Marathons is a 100-mile event many consider the toughest endurance run on Earth. Thousands have attempted it, and only 15 have ever finished. Most years see no finishers at all in the race’s 60-hour time limit. And 2022 was no exception. Despite no one finishing, one Barkley first-timer, Jasmin Paris, beat the clock to become the first woman in a decade to complete three loops – otherwise known as the ‘fun run.’ Meet the people who attempt to finish this impossibly trying race. (The Guardian)

COMPANIES TO WATCH.

The startup revolutionizing the media landscape: Substack turns five this summer, half a decade after debuting with a promise to “accelerate the advent of what we are convinced will be a new golden age for publishing.” Substack has aggressively pursued that goal, making it both a darling of the media world and a breakout star of Silicon Valley. More recently, the company has found itself on the front lines of the culture wars. But even amid bursts of negative media coverage, Substack has maintained a large and loyal user base, and there are no signs of an exodus. (Vanity Fair)

“What we are trying to do is build a true alternative to the attention economy.”

The boy band that took over the world: In an age of despair and division, a boy band from South Korea remixed the rules of pop and created a fandom bigger than Beatlemania. Here’s how BTS became one of the most popular bands in history. (The New Yorker)

“This is not the end for us.”

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AUDIO TO HEAR.

Laurie Santos on the science of eudemonology: Happiness is kind of mushy, so is it possible to study it in the same way we do math and physics? Laurie Santos’ work in cognitive psychology has proven that happiness isn’t as elusive as we may assume. “These days, we have almost two decades-worth of scientific work that’s done in this field of positive psychology, and we’ve learned a lot,” she says. “There’s lots of evidence-based tips out there for what you can do to feel better.” (Link available to premium members.)

Mark Manson on the inevitability of suffering: Unlike most people who strive to rid their lives of pain, Mark Manson does the opposite. "There's no such thing as a problem-free life," he says, drawing on Buddhist philosophy. "Life is about picking your problems, so stop avoiding them. Instead, choose the ones that invigorate you and give your life meaning." (Link available to premium members.)

VIDEOS TO SEE.

Khaby Lame on his silent genius: With more than 142 million TikTok followers, Khaby Lame is top creator on the platform. One of the biggest keys to Lame’s success is that his videos transcend language. This video breaks down exactly why Lame’s videos are so viral. One reason? All of his videos pass the “over-the-shoulder test,” meaning that if you can look over someone’s shoulder who’s watching the content and still enjoy it without sound or context, then it has viral potential. This is a must-watch. (Link available to premium members.)

Peter Lynch on beating the market: It's rare to find an investment manager who isn't hyper-focused on valuations, projections, or financial data. This deviation from the norm is what makes investor Peter Lynch an anomaly in his field. “As an undergrad, I was on the liberal arts side of Boston college, avoiding all the required math and accounting courses which are the normal preparations for business," recounts the legendary mutual fund manager. "Instead, I studied metaphysics, philosophy, logic—along with history, psychology, and political science.” (Link available to premium members.)

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