Finimize - 🍀 Russia gets lucky

A hoax report wasn't too far off | Russia isn't giving out oil |

Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for July 14th in 3:05 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over a lemon and lime bitter at TwinFin in Lagos, Portugal (🌥 33°C/91°F)

Today's big stories

  1. US inflation continued to climb last month, if not as much as a fake report would have had you believe
  2. Russia’s poised to shut off a major gas line to Europe, so now might be a good time to give a new trade a try – Read Now
  3. Russia’s oil exports fell in June, but a rising price kept the country of out trouble

The Price Is Wrong

The Price Is Wrong

What’s Going On Here?

Data out on Wednesday showed that US consumer prices continued to climb by more than expected last month.

What Does This Mean?

Earlier this week, a report emerged claiming that US consumer prices were 10.2% higher in June than the same time last year. And while it turned out to be a hoax, it certainly seemed plausible enough: the US government has, after all, been downplaying the latest inflation numbers ahead of the real update. It was so plausible, in fact, that stocks slumped following its release.

Fake or not, it wasn’t far off: consumer prices rose 9.1% in June, well above May’s 8.6% and April’s 8.3%. That was mostly down to – you guessed it – energy and food prices, which were 42% and 10% higher than the same time last year. And even though salaries have been rising lately, clearly they haven’t been rising fast enough: the data showed that inflation-adjusted hourly wages fell 3.6% – the biggest drop since 2007.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Are stocks about to rally?
Higher prices and lower salaries could lead to a drop in consumer spending, which is bound to be flagged as a concern this earnings season. But Deutsche Bank doesn’t think it’ll lead to another stock market selloff: the bank argues that the writing has been on the wall for a while now. In fact, Deutsche has pointed out that the market has historically rallied during an earnings season that follows a selloff like the one we’ve just seen.

The bigger picture: The almighty dollar.
This data only makes it more likely the Fed will hike interest rates substantially again later this month, which will continue to make the US dollar an appealing prospect for international savers and investors. The ECB’s reluctance to hike rates, meanwhile, is having the opposite effect on the euro. That might be why the euro fell below the value of the greenback for the first time in 20 years on Wednesday.

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Analyst Take

How To Hedge Yourself If Russia Pulls The Plug On European Gas

How To Hedge Yourself If Russia Pulls The Plug On European Gas
Photo of Reda Farran

Reda Farran, Analyst

And we’re off.

Russia has now halted the flow of gas through the Nord Stream pipeline – Europe’s main gas import infrastructure – for 10 days of scheduled maintenance.

The taps will come back on again on the 21st July. Or at least, that’s what Europe is hoping.

It’s nervous that Russia might be taking the chance to cut off its supply for good, and that it might only be a matter of time before the aggrieved country does the same to the other key pipelines.

But while the move would have major consequences for consumers, the economy, and your portfolio, there is a way to protect yourself.

So that’s today’s Insight: how to hedge yourself if Russia pulls the plug.

Read or listen to the Insight here


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Oils Of War

Oils Of War

What’s Going On Here?

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report on Wednesday estimating that Russian oil exports dropped off last month.

What Does This Mean?

Ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe – by far the country’s biggest oil export market – has gradually been phasing out its oil. And while the Middle East and elsewhere are still buying the country’s slippery elixir, they haven’t been taking enough to make up for Europe’s principled stand: the IEA estimates that Russian daily exports fell by 250,000 barrels in June.

But Russia has had one saving grace: the price of oil averaged $117 a barrel last month, as global supplies continued to fail to keep up with a post-pandemic rebound in demand. So even though Russia exported far less of the dusky earth juice, the value of its oil exports still rose by $700 million to over $20 billion in June (tweet this).

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: More demand, please.
Oil’s higher price is already impacting demand for the commodity by more than the IEA first thought, which might be why the agency has lowered its estimates for global demand. It now thinks demand will overtake pre-Covid levels next year rather than this one, and also warned that faltering demand poses a real risk to the global recovery – not to mention the economic stability of emerging economies.

Zooming out: It’s up to the governments.
The US is urging Middle Eastern producers to help boost supply, but it’s not quite that simple: Saudi Arabia and the UAE only have the capacity to increase their daily output by 2.2 million barrels a day. That might sound like a lot, but the world gets through about 4 million an hour. So the IEA is recommending governments create their own policies to limit energy use, in a bid to keep their economies on track.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Some people want it to happen, some wish it would happen, others make it happen.”

– Michael Jordan (an American businessman and former professional basketball player)
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🌎 Finimize Live

🎉 Coming Up In The Next Week…

All events in UK time.

🔮 How To Think Like An Analyst: 10am, July 13th
💪 How To Survive A Stock Market Crash: 6pm, July 13th
🌍 Blockchain, Crypto, and ESG: 5pm, July 19th
👀 Your Guide To Earnings Season: 3pm, July 20th
🎉 Navigating The World Of Stablecoins: 6pm, July 20th

🥳 And After That…

🔥 How To Use Machine Learning For Trading: 12pm, July 21st
🍷 Is Wine The Perfect Recession-Proof Investment?: 1pm, July 27th
♻️ Building A Crypto ESG Framework: 6pm, August 2nd
📈 A Case For DAO Treasury Diversification: 6pm, August 9th
💻 How To Spot The Best Tech Stocks: 6pm, August 16th

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