Highlights From The Comments On Subcultures
1: Maximum Limelihood Estimator writes:
I called this “a cyclic theory” to acknowledge my debt to Turchin, but you may notice that as written it doesn’t repeat. Just because disco was cool in the 70s and uncool in the 80s doesn’t imply it will be cool in the 90s, uncool in the 00s, and so on forever. It will probably just stay uncool. The cyclic aspect, if it exists, would involve the constant spawning of new subcultures that rise and fall on their own. So disco begets dance music, dance music has its own golden age and eventual souring, and then it begets something else. The atheist movement begets the feminist movement begets the anti-racist movement begets and so on. What about the stronger claim - that no (non-calendar-based) cycles exist? I think this is clearly false if you allow cycles like the above - in which case the business cycle is one especially well-established example. But if you mean a cycle that follows a nice sine wave pattern and is pretty predictable, I have trouble thinking of good counterexamples. Except for cicada population! I think that’s genuinely cyclic! You can argue it ought to count as a calendar-based cycle, but then every cycle that lasted a specific amount of time would be calendar-based and Limelihood’s claim would be true by definition. __________________________ 2: People giving specific examples that either agree or disagree with the model: Guy Downs (who I think should come up with an excuse to debate Guy Standing), writes:
Tetragrammaton writes:
_______________________ 3: Erusian writes:
4: Laura Creighton writes:
I guess I should have been more respectful to David Chapman’s model, because the most common criticism in the comments was “actually I think it’s more of [reinvents David Chapman’s model]. Fine. Good work David. _____________________ 5: Anon writes:
I had used the example of Planned Parenthood, which has a board of directors and strong institutional tradition so you can’t just waltz in and take it over. It sounds like the difference between this and what Anon’s proposing is that you can found your own pro-choice organization and (if it’s good enough) displace Planned Parenthood as the center of the pro-choice movement. I think this system - exit over voice, market selection, whatever you want to call it - is usually an improvement on pure authoritarianism. ___________________ 6: AvalancheGenesis writes:
My rationalist timeline:
Now things are pretty stable, partly because we put enough distance between ourselves and our growth phase that we can start to get a little hipster cool again, and partly because effective altruism is the Hot New Thing that everyone is supposed to have an opinion on. This is the usual pattern of exciting talked-about movements spawning successor movements that then get to be exciting and talked-about in turn, while the original movement gets to go back to being normal people with a common interest again. By the way, in the past week, effective altruism has gotten long, glowing profiles in the New Yorker, the New York Times, Vox, the cover of TIME Magazine, shoutouts from Elon Musk and Andrew Yang, podcast interviews with Tyler Cowen and Tim Ferriss, and criticism from Freddie deBoer. Enjoy it while it lasts! ___________________ 7: MT writes:
The germ of this idea was my feeling that I’ve been in movements where it starts out feeling like everyone can’t stop gushing about how great we are, and then later there’s another phase where criticism reigns and everyone feels slightly embarrassed to be involved. This doesn’t feel tautological to me, although it might become trivial if you allow enough selection bias (some movement where this hasn’t happened “isn’t the kind of movement this happens to”). I could prove this by making nontrivial predictions about which movements are going to get less camaraderie and more internecine struggle in the future. Four years ago I would have said “new left socialism”, and I think I did endorse Robby Soave’s article to that effect at the time, but I think new left socialism is well into involution or even postcycle now. Last year I would have said YIMBYism, but I’m not up-to-date on it and maybe it’s already transitioned too. The only movement I see that’s still clearly high on “we are so great and such good friends with each other” is postrationalism/ingroup/TPOT, so sure, I expect things to get worse for them (sorry for this potentially self-fulfilling prophecy). (I’m nervous about saying EA because they still have more money than they can spend in a reasonable amount of time; as long as that situation continues they won’t be exactly resource-scarce, and the people with the purse-strings will have a natural advantage as “elites”.) I’m actually surprised how few uncomplicated happy growth spurt movements I can think of now, compared to how many I can think of that seem to have passed through that stage. I think this is a combination of:
Does anyone else know groups in this phase now? _____________________________________ 8: Nate writes:
Why should they be involution? The NYT piece Meet The Renegades Of The Intellectual Dark Web is a picture-perfect example of what it looks like when a movement is starting its growth phase. Newspapers write articles about how edgy and cool you are and how the establishment is afraid of your growing power. The couple of people who joined the movement out of genuine conviction when it was unpopular or made them look weird (eg Jordan Peterson, Eric Weinstein) get catapulted to superstardom. IDW seemed like an unusually short period of time before everyone turned on each other and it became cringe, maybe because nothing united them besides being heterodox and there’s no reason for adherents of different heterodoxies to like or agree with each other. So there were a brief couple of months when people were excited about having a powerful mutual rallying flag against The Man, and then they turned on each other. There’s also another thing I didn’t get to in the original post about something like attack surface. When a movement is small, outsiders mostly don’t bother coming up with good criticisms, because nobody cares and it feels like punching down. In early Growth phase, the movement is still confined to its natural base and has a buzz of excitement around it and nobody wants to criticize it then either. But as it gets bigger, it becomes a well-known important topic (cf. all those news articles about EA), it starts feeling actually threatening to people (eg one vegetarian is a cute eccentric weirdo, but if 50% of people are vegetarian then you start feeling judged for not being one, and maybe people start taking meat off the menu), plus it’s in Involution phase so insiders are cooperating with outside critics. ____________________________ 9: FarTheThrow writes:
Worrying about status doesn’t feel like worrying about status, and usually it’s not even helpful to think about it on the status level. It’s like nutrients. Most non-sociopaths don’t go about trying to “obtain nutrients”, they just happen to eat foods, and some of those foods are healthier and tastier than others… Being in a Growth phase subculture feels like “my contributions are appreciated”, “people respond to my comments”, “my feedback is taken seriously”, “there are lots of interesting projects I can work on”, “I feel accepted socially”, “I tend to get the positions I apply for”, “I make friends easily”, “it’s easy for me to make progress on tasks I put my mind to”, et cetera. Being in an Involution phase subculture feels like the opposite. There are intimidatingly-high barriers for entry, and the only advice people will give you is “lurk moar”. Everyone else is better at the thing than you are, and you have no compensatory advantages. You’re not sure how to break into social networks or get invited to things, and although there might be formal programs to help (eg internships), you cannot get any. “Status” is an abstraction that covers all of this stuff. Like all abstractions, it’s less useful than just describing the thing you are abstracting over in careful detail, but like all abstractions, you might not feel like doing that and then the abstraction is helpful Kaj Sotala writes:
This is a definitional dispute and I should know better than to get involved in definition disputes, but I can’t help myself: I feel like “it’s not status - it’s just a sense of belonging, being appreciated, and connecting with people” is like saying “it’s not language - it’s just letters, words, and sentences.” I guess Kaj is using status in a strict sense and I am using it in a loose sense. Or maybe Kaj is talking about going from neutral status to high status (where you start to feel like a special bigshot) and I am including going from negative status to neutral status (where you start to feel accepted and part of the group). Imagine if for some reason the word money had a connotation of “thing you use to buy luxury goods so that poor people are jealous of you”. Then people would tell economists “You’re so cynical in thinking that labor markets are about money - a lot of people just want to pay their monthly rent and provide food for their families”. Normally in a situation like this I would use a different word, but I don’t know if there’s a good snappy replacement. Accepting suggestions! You’re a free subscriber to Astral Codex Ten. For the full experience, become a paid subscriber. |
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