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Your US House Race Update

The 'red wave' has crashed into a frothy mess.

Sep 6

US House Seat Map — *Districts are rated based on their 2020 presidential vote. Districts are labeled “swing” if its 2020 vote had a margin of less than 10 points.

Happy September, It’s officially election season! Let’s review how recent events have upended midterm election forecasts.

What Color is the “Wave?”

Historically, the president’s party loses seats in Congress during midterm elections and there’s been heavy discussion on social media about how Americans have shifted politically during these turbulent two years. Elon Musk tweeted a now-infamous webcomic, alleging that voters are turning toward the Republican party due to leftist extremism. That logic, alongside the 2021 election results, has powered forecasts of a cresting red wave in November.

But SCOTUS’ recent abortion ruling rollback may be serving as a wavebreaker for Republicans (and also exposes how Musk’s tweet was oh-so-wrong.) Recent elections in Alaska, Kansas, Nebraska, New York and Minnesota have all resulted in better-than expected performance for Democrats. In addition, Republican incumbents have lost more primaries than Democratic incumbents, continuing the demise of moderate Republicans within the party. Taking their place: increasingly ideologically extreme House candidates that are expected to struggle in the general election.

Democrats also have an incumbency edge heading into this midterm election cycle. 185 current House Democrats have won their primaries and will be defending their House seat in November. On the opposite side of the aisle, House Republicans have 181 incumbents defending seats on the ballot.

Either way, most agree that the expected red wave has crashed into a frothy mess. Whoever emerges victorious in November will have to up the mess.