The Pomp Letter - Why Is US Life Expectancy Dropping?
To investors, Investing is a game of demographics. You want to select markets that are ascending, not descending. Data points like population growth, percent of young people, and life expectancy are key indicators of where the world is going. Pick the right market and you can make the trend your friend. Pick the wrong market and you’ll have a strong headwind. I want to spend our time today focused on life expectancy, which is simply “the average period that a person may expect to live.” You would anticipate that the most developed nations have the highest life expectancy, but that is not necessarily the case. We’ll use the United States as an example. Max Roser and the team at Our World In Data point out that the United States has a lower life expectancy than other rich countries. Why is this? Roser explains:
This is kind of crazy to think about. America, likely the most developed nation in the world, is worse off than other developed nations. But it gets even wilder when you add in how much Americans spend on healthcare in comparison to these other countries. The United States is in a league of its own. There is no other wealthy country in the world that has a life expectancy below 80 years old, nor is there another wealthy country that has a health expenditure per capita above $7,000. The US checks both boxes. These statistics alone would be concerning, but unfortunately there is another story that is capturing the attention of people who pay attention to national demographics. Wait, what is going on here? According to Mary Hui from Quartz:
This is not exactly shocking when you understand the reasoning. Hui writes:
This begs the question — will the US life expectancy recover or will the US buck the trend of wealthy nations as it sees a further decline in future years? No one knows the answer. But we better hope that a quick reversal occurs, because other demographic data points like fertility rate aren’t going to make up for the loss. Data from Census.gov states:
So we are seeing US life expectancy recently drop for the first time in decades, and the fertility rate is on a three decade decline, so the demographics in the United States are not looking too hot right now. This doesn’t guarantee the leading democracy while fail, nor does it mean that investors should pull all of their capital out of US markets. It simply highlights that the future may not look like the past. Investing is all about demographics and there is a strong, data-driven argument to highlight the US could have some of its most compelling trends left in the past. There are few countries that have been able to thrive for decades in the face of deteriorating demographics, so this is worth continuing to watch in the coming years. Demographics are complex. There is plenty of debate and controversy around data collection, measurement methodologies, and what is actually important. Let this letter serve as inspiration for you to dig further and start doing your homework. Your future portfolio will probably thank you. Hope everyone has a great start to the week. I’ll talk to each of you tomorrow. -Pomp If you are not a subscriber of The Pomp Letter, join 225,000 other investors who read my personal opinion on finance, technology, and bitcoin each morning. THE RUNDOWN:MicroStrategy Files to Sell Up to $500M of Stock to Fund Bitcoin Purchases: MicroStrategy, a software developer that has become a corporate bitcoin vault, plans to sell up to $500 million of stock to fund more purchases of the cryptocurrency. A Friday filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission revealed the stock offering, which will be for “general corporate purposes, including the acquisition of bitcoin.” Read more. Blockchain.com to Open Dubai Office After Securing Preliminary Regulatory Approval: Blockchain.com has won provisional regulatory approval to operate in Dubai, according to a Reuters report. The London-based exchange has signed a contract with Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority – the city’s new digital assets regulations agency – to open up an office in the emirate, the story said, though it remains unclear when hiring for the office will begin. Read more. US Senators Press Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg to Combat Crypto Scams: Six Democratic members of the Senate Banking Committee have sent a letter to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg asking what the company is doing to fight cryptocurrency scams on its Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp platforms. The group of senators is led by Bob Menendez of New Jersey and includes Sherrod Brown of Ohio, chairman of the Banking Committee, and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Read more. JPMorgan Hires Former Microsoft Executive to Its Digital Assets-Related Payments Group: JPMorgan has hired former Microsoft executive Tahreem Kampton as a senior payments executive within the bank’s payments group. His focus will be on the future of payments, including blockchain technology and the digital ecosystem, according to a statement sent to CoinDesk. “Tahreem Kampton has joined J.P. Morgan Payments as a senior payments executive with a focus on driving thought leadership to help the payments industry and therefore clients, to evolve, thrive and grow,” said JPMorgan. “Specifically, he will lead co-innovation with key partners in payments, blockchain and the digital ecosystem where JPMorgan has already built a strong foundation.” Read more. Andrii Baryshpolets is a Chess Grandmaster and has a PHD in Economics. In this conversation, we discuss the path to becoming a grandmaster, machine learning, cheating, Bitcoin & Crypto, and books and resources to become better at chess. Andrii also gives us insight into the Russia / Ukraine war as a Ukrainian and shares his thoughts on the macro economic environment. Listen on iTunes: Click here Listen on Spotify: Click here Weekly Update on BitcoinPodcast SponsorsThese companies make the podcast possible, so go check them out and thank them for their support!
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