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China’s growth is lagging behind its neighbors | Dealmaking has plunged since July |

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Today's big stories

  1. China’s growth is set to fell behind the rest of Asia for the first time in three decades
  2. Where to find opportunities in the UK market crisis – Read Now
  3. Global dealmaking has fallen off a cliff

China’s Looking Frail Next To Hale and Hearty Neighbors

China’s Looking Frail Next To Hale and Hearty Neighbors

What’s Going On Here?

Projections out on Tuesday suggested that China’s growth will fall behind the rest of Asia for the first time in over three decades.

What Does This Mean?

In the immediate wake of Covid, China seemed to be at the forefront of the world’s recovery from the pandemic. But a lot has changed since then: the country’s strict zero-Covid approach – which depends on snap lockdowns and mass testing – has restricted movement and left consumer activity pretty depressed. And when you consider too that China’s all-important property sector – which makes up about 30% of the economy – is taking a worse bruising than Olivia Wilde’s "Don't Worry Darling", it’s no wonder the World Bank now predicts the Chinese economy will grow just 2.8% this year. For the rest of Asia, though, things look comparatively rosy: high commodity prices (good news for exporters) and a strong rebound in domestic demand mean it's expected to grow by a healthy 5.3% this year.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: The world’s watching its wallet.
China’s woes don’t end there. You see, with recession fears (and in some cases, actual, full-blown recessions) setting in, China’s exports are taking a hit. That’s worrying for a country that typically relies on exports to fuel growth, but the numbers don’t lie: Shanghai’s port processed 8% less cargo this August compared to last August – a dropoff that’s contributed to plunging shipping costs from China, which are now at their lowest in over two years (tweet this).

The bigger picture: A silver lining for everyone else.
It’s a dog-eat-dog world out there, and China’s difficulties present the country’s trading partners with plenty of opportunities – specifically the countries China exports to. See, falling demand should ease some of the congestion that’s been plaguing global supply chains, while lower shipping costs could help to cool inflation globally too.

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Analyst Take

The Winners And Losers From The UK Market Turmoil

The Winners And Losers From The UK Market Turmoil

By Russell Burns, Analyst

It’s been a rough year for UK investors. And this week: it’s been one for the books

The British pound plunged to all-time lows and the country’s borrowing costs surged as investors reacted to the government’s new tax cuts and the challenge facing the country’s central bank.

And that was just… Monday.

All this turbulence is likely to be with us for a while, so let’s take a look at the market winners and losers it’ll likely create along the way.

That’s today’s Insight: who wins and who loses in the UK’s market turmoil.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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No Deal Or No Deal In The Itty-Bitty M&A Market

No Deal Or No Deal In The Itty-Bitty M&A Market

What’s Going On Here?

Data out this week showed that global dealmaking has fallen off a cliff.

What Does This Mean?

The mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market began the summer on a record high, with eight back-to-back, breezy quarters of over $1 trillion in deals. But things have taken a turn since – and with only $640 billion in deals agreed since July began, we’re on track for M&A’s worst quarter since the pandemic brought dealmaking to a halt in 2020. “Disappointed but not surprised” – your parents’ catchphrase when you were a teen – probably captures the world’s reaction to the news pretty accurately. After all, fears of a recession mean companies are feeling weak-kneed about making big purchases, and dented share prices mean they’d have to sacrifice more of their stock than usual as payment. On top of that, loans are increasingly hard to come by – and expensive even when they can be found.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: Expect deals to fail.
Even private equity firms – which buy up companies in the hope of improving and reselling them later on – have gone off the boil. Spurned by picky banks who are reluctant to fund their ventures, they’ve been turning to private lenders to plug the gap. Now, though, it’s clear that private lenders only have so much cash to give, and the spectacle of huge deals being delayed – or simply falling through – is becoming commonplace.

For markets: Asia’s holding firm.
The initial public offering market is in a similar sorry state at the minute but one way or another, Asia seems to be bucking the trend. This year, money raised through stock listings in Asia makes up a record 68% of the global total, versus a meager 14% in the US – traditionally the world’s busiest listings market. That said, some of Asia’s most impressive sums were raised by Chinese companies that got booted out of the US, like China Mobile and CNOOC.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Life’s tragedy is that we get old too soon and wise too late.”

– Benjamin Franklin (US founding father)
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🇺🇸 What’s Next For The US Economy?: 1pm, September 29th
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