Morning Brew - ☕️ Hold the AI

Why Betterment is not all in on AI.
Morning Brew October 12, 2022

Emerging Tech Brew

Happy Wednesday, unless, of course, you are a PC maker. Demand for personal computers is falling at its fastest rate in more than two decades, according to Gartner estimates: In Q3, global PC shipments fell 19.5% from a year earlier. Unlike a year ago, when PC makers were having a hard time filling orders, they now have more computers than they can sell in these economically uncertain times.

The lesson of the last few years remains: Predicting the business world is really, really hard.

In today’s edition:

Why one of the biggest robo-advisors doesn’t use AI
🚙 VW sees a dormant brand as ideal for its US EVs
Reader poll: Sony PSVR

Hayden Field, Dan McCarthy

AI

Automated investing ≠ AI

Automated investing ≠ AI Dianna “Mick” McDougall, Photo: Max Lirnyk/Getty Images

Betterment is one of the world’s largest robo-advisors, but its consumer-facing investment offerings make virtually no use of machine learning.

And according to Betterment, they just work better that way.

“We haven’t used machine learning [in our consumer-facing robo-advisor product] for a very specific purpose, because it hasn’t really addressed a core problem that we felt like machine learning could directly address in effective ways,” Mychal Campos, Betterment’s senior director of investing, told us in an interview.

“Us not using it doesn’t mean we didn’t put the research into it. We did, and we found that, actually, we have much simpler approaches, which actually are more effective,” he added.

Big picture: Despite the “robo” part of robo-advisor, Campos recalled that when the team explored using machine learning for portfolio construction, they went down “kind of a rabbit hole,” and the AI-based portfolio optimization resulted in lower expected returns.

  • The team only wanted to use more advanced technology if it filled a clear need and led to clear benefits, he said, so when faced with these results, they ditched the flashier tech for more traditional statistical modeling.

With $33 billion in assets under management through March 2022, Betterment eclipses independent competitors like Wealthfront but reportedly falls behind traditional investment companies like Vanguard and Schwab as far as robo-advisor asset value. Keep reading about the fintech’s robo-advisor here.HF

        

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

In the past, VW sees its all-electric future

In the past, VW sees its all-electric future

Why invent a new EV brand when you can simply revive a cult-classic brand that’s been dormant since the ’80s?

That’s the question that Volkswagen execs seem to have asked themselves ahead of the company’s all-electric reboot of the mid-century off-roading brand Scout. VW aims to start production of a Scout SUV and pickup truck in 2026, eventually increasing sales to 250,000 vehicles per year, and using the brand to hopefully gain a bigger foothold in the large car-loving US.

In late September, as part of our first-ever Emerging Tech Brew Summit, we spoke with Scout CEO Scott Keogh about what’s ahead for the old-is-new-again venture. Keogh was previously head of VW America.

How it started: With “a little bit of fear and a little bit of business objectives,” Keogh said at the event. “I had a boss that said, ‘Hey, how do we get bigger market share as a group in America?’”

  • The company is targeting a 10% market share in America, he said, up from “4%–5%” today.

How it’s going: Keogh said the “defining challenge” is infrastructure, in particular raw materials.

“[Sourcing raw materials] is what we are spending a lot of time doing,” he said, pointing to VW’s recent partnerships with mining companies in Canada. “It’s critical to get the raw materials close,” he added.

  • Scout plans to release two prototypes in 2023, Keogh said, and hasn’t yet announced a production site.

Looking ahead…Keogh said the automotive world is flipping on its head with the rise of EVs. While automakers used to obsess over whether there was enough demand, now it’s all about the supply side.

“I think we’re going to be in a relatively prolonged environment of higher demand than the ability to meet it,” he said.

Click here to read on-site.DM

        

FROM YOU

Reader poll: Sony PSVR edition

A man plays a video game with a virtual reality head-mounted headset "PlayStation VR" developed by Sony. Chesnot/Getty Images

It hasn’t changed its name to Verse or Reality or anything like that, but all the same, Sony is placing a sizable bet on VR. Its second-edition headset, named…PSVR 2…is set to come out in early 2023.

Last week…We asked you all to weigh in on whether Sony’s VR headset will ever achieve the popularity of its PlayStation consoles. Here’s how it shook out among our 1,200+ respondents:

  • One-third (33%) have faith that PSVR will eventually match PS in popularity.
  • Just under half (47%) think the console will remain more popular than the headset.
  • And the remaining 20% misplaced their crystal balls (read: they responded IDK).

The company is reportedly planning to produce 2 million units by March 2023, although the figure reportedly could change depending on the “device’s sales momentum.” For reference, it took Sony’s first PSVR headset more than a year to sell 2 million units, per RoadToVR.

  • IDC estimated that 13.9 million VR headsets will be sold worldwide this year, with Meta capturing 90% of the market thanks to the popularity of its Quest 2 headset.
  • Speaking of which, Meta unveiled its latest Quest headset yesterday—check out a recap here.

Looking ahead…Unlike the standalone Quest 2, Sony’s VR headsets only work with a PlayStation console: The original PSVR headset was tethered to the PS4, and the upcoming PSVR 2 will connect to the PS5. PlayStation consoles are popular, but that still puts a ceiling on the headset’s market. Sony has reportedly sold ~21 million PS5s worldwide.—DM

This week’s poll: Have you ever used BeReal?

Yes
No

BITS AND BYTES

BeReal logo with Instagram logo looming large behind it Francis Scialabba

Stat: BeReal has surpassed 50 million installs, per SensorTower estimates. Monthly active users are also up, um, 2,254% from January.

Quote: “The big-picture message here is that the early adopters of these systems still have a poor understanding of the technology’s limits.”—IIHS president David Harkey on consumer perception of ADAS systems like Tesla Autopilot and GM Super Cruise

Read: How an 18-year-old recreated the known universe in Minecraft.

Learn: It’s budget-building season. If Q4 is giving you nightmares, join the Brew’s Financial Forecast sprint and prepare to walk away with a completed business budget for 2023. Secure your seat here.

Scalable security: A strong biz is a safe biz, and Vanta is here to help you Fort Knox-ify your company’s data. Join their live product demo to get the deets on Vanta’s market-leading compliance automation software.*

*This is sponsored advertising content.

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Delta Air Lines joined the “take a flying car to the airport” party. For more on said party, check out our story about United’s eVTOL push.
  • Lego’s parent company bought an ed-tech firm for $875 million.
  • CATL expects its Q3 profit to hit ~$1.2 billion—nearly triple what it was a year prior.
  • Lyft is testing a new algorithm for its drivers. The pilot enables drivers in 18 US cities to view trip details, like destination and pay, before they opt into a ride.
  • GM is creating an energy division called…GM Energy…which will build EV chargers, solar panels, and other energy accouterments for both consumers and enterprises.
  • A profile of Ted Hoff, who invented the microprocessor.

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Written by Hayden Field and Dan McCarthy

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