2023 VC predictions: Finding an exit from the 'messy middle'

Welcome to TechCrunch+ Friday

After staging our first TechCrunch Disrupt in San Francisco in three years, Slack is much quieter than usual this morning.

My colleagues are flying home to cities as far flung as Taipei, Paris and London; I just took a streetcar home, which should keep my expense report simple.

Moscone Center did not look like we’re experiencing a downturn in tech: the Expo Hall and demo booths were buzzing, and attendees were networking with enthusiasm in the hallways (Are business cards making a comeback?).

Next week, I’ll share a recap of the panel I moderated, “Taking the BS out of your TAM.” In a conversation with Kara Nortman (Upfront Ventures), Aydin Senkut (Felicis Ventures) and Deena Shakir (Lux Capital), we explored the many mistakes first-time founders make when calculating the size of their market, and pinned down the information investors are actually looking for.

Everyone had actionable insights to share, and more than one attendee stopped me in the hallways afterwards to let me know how much they appreciated our frank discussion. If you don’t want to wait for my recap, you can watch a video of the panel right now.

Thanks again to everyone who participated!

Eric Tarczynski, managing partner and founder of Contrary Capital, says we are entering a “messy middle” era for venture capital:

“Companies can no longer raise $5 million to $10 million seed rounds with nothing but a deck and the assumption that revenue multiples will skyrocket beyond historical norms,” he writes in a TC+ guest post.

Looking ahead to 2023, Tarczynski foresees an environment where “the VC landscape has started to bifurcate,” as “slow M&A activity and no IPOs” and “good companies in ‘safe’ industries” temper investor expectations.

Thanks for reading,

Walter Thompson
Editorial Manager, TechCrunch+
@yourprotagonist

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