Earnings+More - Weekend Edition #70
Weekend Edition #70Vegas Strip defies the odds, UK gambling ministers we have known, Red Rock 'staring growth in the face', sector watch – tokens +MoreGood morning. Today’s agenda includes:
I love the sound of breaking glass. Strip defies recession talkStrip revenues of $693m in September were up 8.2% YoY, far above some analyst estimates and 18.9% above the levels achieved in September 2019. Boom town: Strip slot GGR up 15.3% YoY was the main driver as Las Vegas continued its strong – almost gravity-defying – run in 2022. YTD Strip revenues are up 22.8% to $6.1bn, helping Nevadas to 12.8% YTD improvement to $11bn. Macquarie estimated visitation rose 9%.
🔥Las Vegas Strip GGR in the year-to-date Sports-betting pointerHold my hand: Deutsche Bank analysts believe they have spotted a nugget of detail on sports betting that may have resonance in other markets. Pointing to the high hold rates reported in September to date across various states, they suggest some have been attributing this higher rate of hold to a lack of promo spend.
** SPONSOR’S MESSAGE: BettingJobs is the leading global recruitment solutions provider to the iGaming, Sports Betting and Lotteries sectors. Boasting a 19-year track record supporting the iGaming industry, and with a team of experts and world-class knowledge, it’s no surprise BettingJobs is experiencing rapid growth with outstanding results. Our industry-recognised recruiters will be attending SiGMA Malta, from 14th - 18th November 2022. Contact info@bettingjobs.com to arrange a meeting with our consultants during the event, who will be delighted to discuss any queries you may have. UK gambling ministers With the news that Damian Collins has been replaced as the UK’s minister for gambling, it means the UK sector has had to get to know 15 ministers in 21 years. Ins and outs: We are indebted to Dan Waugh from Regulus Partner who has put together the graphic below showing the turnover among gambling ministers since 2001. Since Tracey Crouch resigned in November 2018 there have been seven ministers.
No shocks at Red RockQ3 revenue was flat YoY at $414.4m while adj. EBITDA fell 1.4% at $181.9m Despite numerous questions from the analysts on the call about signs of economic distress, the management team at Red Rock remained resolute, suggesting in the words of CEO and chairman Frank Fertitta that the company “hasn't seen anything” to change its outlook.
If you build it: Longer term, the company noted it had~630 acres of land across the Las Vegas valley and has identified parcels of land for sale which, as JMP noted, the cash from which would provide a “liquidity runway” for future growth projects.
Churchill Downs sticks to its gunsThe management team was encouraged by its first foray into B2B provision with the FanDuel deal Horsing around: Following its deal to supply horseracing content to FanDuel, Carstanjen said the group’s early forays into B2B activities were highly encouraging and it was flexible in what it could offer. “No two deals will look the same,” he added.
Jefferies said Churchill Downs’ “fundamental performance and growth pipeline remain on track”. Analyst takesEvolution: the team at Regulus Partners said the Q3 numbers displayed the “usual pattern” of live casino substantially outpacing RNG but that this was down to geography rather than the product with Asia providing substantially all the live casino growth, up 67%. This Asia growth “may still raise question marks in stricter regulated markets” and the inherent risk will dominate the company’s outlook. Sector watch – fan tokensFertile ground: Socios’s first venture into boxing was cut short after the fight between Conor Benn and Chris Eubank Jr was canceled due to an "adverse analytical finding for trace amounts of a fertility drug" in Benn’s sample.
Lower tier: Meanwhile, the Ethereum-backed collectable, NFT and fan token unicorn Sorare has announced new partnerships with lower-division football clubs across Europe. Betting row: Sorare, which last year raised €680m and has a market value of €4.3bn, has also found itself at the center of a row between brand ambassador Kylian Mbappé and French sportsbooks.
Sorare investment: The controversy has somewhat abated, but Mbappé’s partnership with Sorare has come under scrutiny because he is also an investor in the firm. French gambling regulator ANJ met with Sorare in August and is assessing whether Sorare’s business model is akin to gambling. REITS reviewVICI and GLP reported overnight. VII said revenues rose 100% YoY to $751.5m primarily due to the merger with MGM Growth Properties. GLP, meanwhile, saw revenue rise 11% to $333.8m. Note: Both companies will conduct their calls with analysts later today. NewslinesCaesars Sportsbook is now live in Ohio and available to download ahead of the market debut on Jan 1. French regulator ANJ has called on operators to clarify their terms and conditions in bonus offers ahead of the World Cup and for welcome bonuses to capped at €100. Low6 and Rivalry will partner to design and launch a free-to-play Pick’em game for the upcoming 2022 League of Legends World Championships and The International 11 eSports events. ESA Gaming has launched its iCasino products on 888Africa’s platform 888bet. Las Vegas-based retail sportsbook Superbook has gone live with its Iowa OSB offering. What we’re reading“There is no character in the entire canon of world literature and drama more useful for explaining markets than Wile E. Coyote,” writes John Authers for Bloomberg. What we’re writingThe NFL is no longer a must-have. Scott Longley for EGR. Off socialMusk begins Twitter overlordship with mass firings. Calendar
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