The Generalist - What I’m Watching in 2023

Friends,

I am so excited for 2023. After a bit of downtime over the past couple of weeks (during which I read as many great pieces of long-form journalism as possible), I’m returning with renewed energy and drive. There is so much I want to learn together this year, and some big improvements I’m eager to push forward with The Generalist. Hopefully, in 12 months, we’ll have a lot of epic briefings and major upgrades to look back on!

Critical to our development this year is the hiring of our first-ever writer. If you’re excited to play a major role in developing The Generalist and sharing impactful tech stories with the world, we’d love to hear from you! You can find more information here.

We’re kicking off 2023’s Sunday briefings by sharing the topics and trends I’m keeping a close eye on this year. Across AI, social media, search, VC, and crypto, there are some fascinating changes afoot that could have a significant impact on the ecosystem and the investors, founders, and operators that read this newsletter. Jump in and learn more here:

I’d be excited to hear what you’re watching in 2023. Respond to this email to let me know!

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What I'm Watching in 2023

Actionable insights

If you only have a few minutes to spare, here's what investors, operators, and founders should know about what I’m watching in 2023.

• A big launch. Apple is expected to launch its augmented reality (AR) headset this year. It will represent the company’s most significant new product since the iPhone in 2007, and should reveal the current ceiling for AR consumer hardware.
• Giants show weakness. The last decade of the internet has been dominated by advertising giants like Google and Facebook. In 2023, we might see both of them challenged more aggressively. AI is opening up the search design space, while the combined frailty of social media’s giants leaves room for challengers.
• China’s chips. Toward the end of last year, the U.S. made its most aggressive move yet to curtail China’s access to high-end semiconductors. Thus far, the response has been muted, but in 2023, we should get a sense of how Xi Jinping will seek to ensure access to this critical technology.
• New rules. A caveman’s summary of 2022 might be something like, “AI: good. Crypto: bad.” Indeed. If crypto wishes to avoid similar catastrophes in the future, regulation is necessary. Even with a divided Congress, the U.S. can take steps to implement better rules.

***

Lenin’s maxim about time and history is often repeated: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”

Though a compelling turn of phrase, our modern era seems to have rendered it partially insensible. Certainly, we imagine weeks stuffed with activity and significance – we have all very recently lived through them. But can we really visualize a decade of blankness? Ten years in which nothing of consequence occurred?

Perhaps it is simply the arrogance of the living, but it feels as if we are living in an age of hyperactivity and hypersignificance. Major scientific breakthroughs and technological advancements are announced on a daily basis. We live in an overwritten television series with too many plot points, an excess of twists and turns.

Amidst abundant activity, it’s hard to know where to direct one’s attention. Which meaningful advancement matters most? What radical shift may have an enduring impact?

As I consider the year ahead, there are seven areas I’m keeping a close eye on. These are topics or trends that I think have the chance to substantially alter the tech and venture capital landscape.

Apple’s AR moment

Augmented reality (AR) has been heralded as the next great computing platform for some time. Nearly a decade on from the ill-fated introduction of Google Glass, the technology is in a strange place.

It is ubiquitous, laminating our lives with floating flowers, hovering butterflies, striking cosmetics, and neon lettering. Social media filters have become essential to digital communication and self-expression. And yet, despite its pervasiveness, AR feels rather insignificant. Sure, we can transform ourselves into zombies and angels or fill our background with iridescent bubbles – but is that it? Beyond unconvincing e-commerce applications (Look at these shoes on your feet! Try these virtual sunglasses on!) and niche enterprise deployments, AR hasn’t approached comprehensive mainstream adoption.

This year will help us understand how far away we are from that future. Sometime in 2023, Apple is expected to debut its much-anticipated AR headset. It’s unlikely to be a mass-market hit: there will be undoubted kinks to work out, and the expected $3,000 price point makes it a luxury purchase. While that will constrain its initial impact, Apple’s magic ski goggles will illustrate what the world’s best, most opinionated consumer hardware manufacturer considers the optimal approach.

Join the Community

We’re excited to share what’s brewing in The Generalist Community.

Later this week, we’ll begin a new round of our curated introductions for community members. We connect investors, founders, and operators with each other based on what we think will be a fantastic match for both sides. It’s a great way to turn your network into a competitive advantage with minimal effort.

Here’s one member’s feedback from our last round of curated introductions:

• “Super good match, impressive background and thesis. Looks like we’ll be collaborating together in the future”.

This isn’t an isolated event, either. We see an average match rating of 4.5 - 4.6/5 and an NPS score of 91. So, come join us and capitalize on the opportunities 2023 has to offer.
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Our January introductions will kick off later this week, so if you’d like to partake, join the community today.​

In a meme

​​​​For the pictorially inclined, here's the whole piece — all 2,500 words of it — in a single meme.

Puzzler

​​​All guesses are welcome and clues are given to anyone that would like one. Just respond to this email for a hint.

Joshua K nabbed victory in our final puzzler of 2022. He was not alone in his triumph with Karolina E, Andrew S, Keshav J, Shashwat N, Eugene H, Nancy X, Lindsay G, Nathan M, Ian B, Jon H, Mikaela R, SM, James A, Radhika S, Nnamdi E, Rohit K, and Matthew W all answering this riddle correctly:

The answer? The moon.

Wishing you a lovely rest of your day.
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Until next time,

Mario