Shopping at discount or off-price retailers is often described as a treasure hunt. But while consumers still deal with inflation and a potential recession looms, 2023 will probably look more like a hunt for essentials.

As of December, inflation on a YoY basis continues to slow down from its 2022 highs, but that doesn’t mean off-price retailers won’t have room to compete in 2023. Economists believe there’s a 64% chance the US economy will shrink this year, according to Bankrate’s Fourth-Quarter Economic Indicator poll.

But the off-price market may see a decline in total revenue in 2023, according to Erin Schmidt, senior analyst at Coresight Research. She explained that much of that decline can be attributed to the performances of Burlington and Ross, two apparel off-pricers whose customers have struggled to keep up in an inflationary environment.

• Ross’s $4.6 billion in Q3 sales were roughly similar on a YoY basis, but comparable sales fell 3% after a major 14% increase in 2021.
• Burlington’s comparable sales in Q3 decreased 17% after seeing 16% growth in 2021.

“Their average unit retail is between like $10 and $12,” Schmidt said. “And so they have reported that their customers have just really pulled back on their spending.” She added that she believes both Burlington and Ross will rebound this year.

Off-price has historically thrived under poor economic conditions as consumers trade down from full price stores, Paige Thomas, president and CEO at Saks Off 5th, told Retail Brew in an email. She added that she believes the “trade down” effect will spill over into 2023.

• Last year, Saks Off 5th introduced a new loyalty program, Off 5th Rewards, which has found its members shop with the company more frequently with larger basket sizes.

Keep reading here.—KM

The Brannock Device

• Patented: 1929
• First patent holder: Charles F. Brannock

If the shoe fits: As a young man in the 1920s, Charles Brannock worked in the Park-Brannock shoe store co-owned by his father, Otis C. Brannock, and Ernest N. Park in Syracuse, New York.

Figuring out what size brogues to bring customers, he discovered, was complicated. An early foot-measuring tool, the Ritz Stick, invented by Oliver C. Ritz-Woller, who received a patent in 1916, was essentially a glorified wooden ruler. Still sold today, the Ritz Stick has a fixed heel block and a slidable toe block to measure length; turning it 90 degrees and repositioning the foot measures width.

What if, Brannock wondered, a device could measure the length and width simultaneously?

Foot in the door: As a student at Syracuse University, Brannock would awake in the middle of the night, ideas percolating, to make sketches and notes for a new foot-measuring device, according to a 2000 article in Invention & Technology.

He built the prototype on his childhood Erector set, then began to manufacture the Brannock Device in 1925, according to an article from the Lemelson Center for the Study of Invention and Innovation at the Smithsonian National Museum of American History, which maintains a collection of Brannock Device Company records and papers.

By 1926, a national sales force began doing brisk business with shoe stores. In 1927, at 24, Brannock applied for a patent for the device, which was granted in 1929. The device proved popular abroad as well, with patents or trademarks secured in more than 20 countries, beginning with Great Britain and Canada in 1929.

Keep reading here.—AAN

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Alexandria Keener Hammond is owner of My Girlfriend’s Wardrobe, a consignment boutique in York, Pennsylvania, offering everything from Birkenstock to Burberry. Hammond started the shop when she was a sophomore in college, beginning online only in 2012 before opening its storefront a year later.

How would you describe your job to someone who doesn’t work in retail? Personal shopper, tech support, emotional support, retail superhero.

One thing we can’t guess about your job from your LinkedIn profile? Exactly how much I love helping my customers and consignors.

What’s your favorite project you’ve worked on? Working with a nonprofit and giving deserving women clothing as they work towards a better life. Helping them pick out clothing and gain a bit of confidence is very rewarding.

Which emerging retail trend are you most excited about this year, and why? The boost in the secondhand market. One, because I own a consignment store. Two, because I remember when shopping secondhand wasn’t “cool.” Three, I love how sustainable it is and the true impact it has on our environment. Four, I love to help customers and consignors save money.

What’s your go-to coffee order? Vanilla iced coffee, extra vanilla.

Worst piece of advice you’ve received? “See how things go…”

What was your favorite retail product when you were 15, and what’s your favorite retail product now? Charm bracelets at 15. Now, my favorite products are things that make my life easier.

Today’s top retail reads.

Can it: Canned fish, like tuna and sardines, is all the rage with young consumers. Now, brands are working to keep up with demand and push the canned-fish category forward with new products. (the Wall Street Journal)

Tough nut to crack: The year ahead is full of retail uncertainties, especially for CPGs. (Food Dive)

Under the influence: Influencers got consumers to buy $3.6 billion worth of products last year—here are the items they bought the most. (Glossy)

“Leave something behind?” Abandoned carts are the bane of every retailer’s existence. See how you can streamline the customer experience with this little video we put together in partnership with Bolt.*

^{*This is sponsored advertising content.}

Retail media networks are growing rapidly. Our analysts review trends in retail media ad spending and provide predictions for 2023 and beyond.

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• Here are the CPG trends to expect in 2023