Insider Finance - Business - Wall Street’s crystal ball is broken

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January 18, 2023

Hello, Insiders. It’s day three of the World Economic Forum, and our business editor in chief Matt Turner is on the ground in Davos. Matt wrote today on LinkedIn that he’s “picked up on a slight change in tone from the more gloomy assessments of the global economy through the past few months.”

Several of the execs he's spoken with — based in NYC, Shanghai, London, and more — told him that economic pressure has actually "lightened" in recent weeks: “In particular, they’ve pointed to: China’s reopening; signs that inflation is slowing in the US; and a warmer-than-expected winter in Europe that has taken some of the pressure off of energy supplies."

Check out Matt’s latest post here. But are you at Davos, too? If so, we want to hear from you: insidertoday@insider.com. And now, the news.

— Nicholas Carlson

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The latest

Microsoft employees are bracing for more layoffs, after the tech giant cut about 1,000 employees in October. What to know.
Reality TV stars Todd and Julie Chrisley reported to prison to begin their sentences for bank fraud and tax evasion. Here’s what the Florida prisons are like, and what’s next for them.
Husband of missing Massachusetts woman charged with murder. Police say Brian Walshe searched “how to dispose of a 115-pound woman’s body.” Read more.

The big story

Marianne Ayala/Insider

Wall Street's big predictions for 2023 are already crashing and burning.

Finance workers of all stripes are returning to work after skiing, gallivanting around the Caribbean, or just visiting Mom for the holiday season, senior correspondent Linette Lopez writes.

But as they settle in at their desks and turn on their trading terminals, they're in for a rude welcome: The market is already making a mockery of their prophecies.

Around the time everyone starts listening to Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas Is You," Wall Street's phalanx of analysts and economists participate in their own annual tradition: rolling out long jargon-packed reports predicting what's to come in the year ahead. In normal years, they even get a few of these predictions right.

But 2023 is already not a normal, stable year, and some of Wall Street’s biggest predictions — on everything from interest rates to recessions — are souring as quickly as a carton of milk.

READ THE FULL STORY HERE

Top reads

Getty Images

A group of companies want to stop $6 billion in student-loan relief from reaching borrowers. They aim to prevent the funds going to 200,000 borrowers in an already-approved settlement, arguing it “unfairly harms their reputations and prejudices their rights.” Find out more.
Meet the ‘zillennials.’ The generation sitting at the edge of both millennial and Gen Z has enormous spending power. Many of them live with their parents and have a ton of disposable income. What to know.
Goldman Sachs is still hiring, despite its recent layoffs. As many as 3,200 people were handed pink slips last week, but Goldman Sachs still has as many as 350 openings worldwide, with over 200 of those jobs in the US alone. Here’s which divisions are recruiting the most.
Scottsdale’s Super Bowl crackdown. The popular Phoenix suburb is fighting back against rentals on Airbnb and Vrbo as it prepares to host the big game. Locals say its 5,000 short-term rentals have had a detrimental effect on neighborhoods. Read more.
Twitter’s fire sale. Twitter has opened an online auction for surplus office supplies, and the highest bid has already hit $22,500. From an industrial-sized pizza oven to a statue of the Twitter bird, here are all the weird things you can buy.
A gender reveal went wrong when the woman remembered her partner was colorblind. The whole thing was captured for the TikTok masses. Watch what happened.
How a Chinese mole in the FBI was finally unearthed. Over the past decade, more than a dozen Chinese agents recruited by the CIA have been killed or imprisoned. Now it seems an FBI counterintelligence agent was largely responsible, per a new book. Get the full story.

Take a look

Dean Tyler Photography

The tiny Maine island that’s not fit for “man or beast” in winter. Charlotte Gale bought Duck Ledges Island for $339,000 in July. But there was one condition — she had to spend a night there alone. See the island Stephen King says is worthy of a novel.

Watch this

How Crime Works: Meth labs. Insider spoke with Adi Jaffe, a former crystal meth dealer in Los Angeles, about dealing with cartels, superlabs, and more. Watch here.

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This edition was curated by Nicholas Carlson, and edited by Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan, Dave Smith, and Nathan Rennolds. Get in touch: insidertoday@insider.com.

Key phrases

senior correspondent Linette Lopez a dozen Chinese agents former crystal meth dealer Super Bowl crackdown reality TV stars long jargonpacked reports enormous spending power popular Phoenix suburb industrialsized pizza oven Dean Tyler Photography World Economic Forum surplus office supplies Pitch Deck Library big storyMarianne Ayala tiny Maine island Duck Ledges Island missing Massachusetts woman FBI counterintelligence agent chief Matt Turner normal stable year

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