Insider Finance - Business - Wall Street’s crystal ball is broken

January 18, 2023

Hello, Insiders. It’s day three of the World Economic Forum, and our business editor in chief Matt Turner is on the ground in Davos. Matt wrote today on LinkedIn that he’s “picked up on a slight change in tone from the more gloomy assessments of the global economy through the past few months.”

Several of the execs he's spoken with — based in NYC, Shanghai, London, and more — told him that economic pressure has actually "lightened" in recent weeks: “In particular, they’ve pointed to: China’s reopening; signs that inflation is slowing in the US; and a warmer-than-expected winter in Europe that has taken some of the pressure off of energy supplies."

Check out Matt’s latest post here. But are you at Davos, too? If so, we want to hear from you: insidertoday@insider.com. And now, the news.

— Nicholas Carlson

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Wall Street's big predictions for 2023 are already crashing and burning.

Finance workers of all stripes are returning to work after skiing, gallivanting around the Caribbean, or just visiting Mom for the holiday season, senior correspondent Linette Lopez writes. 

But as they settle in at their desks and turn on their trading terminals, they're in for a rude welcome: The market is already making a mockery of their prophecies.

Around the time everyone starts listening to Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas Is You," Wall Street's phalanx of analysts and economists participate in their own annual tradition: rolling out long jargon-packed reports predicting what's to come in the year ahead. In normal years, they even get a few of these predictions right.

But 2023 is already not a normal, stable year, and some of Wall Street’s biggest predictions — on everything from interest rates to recessions — are souring as quickly as a carton of milk.

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This edition was curated by Nicholas Carlson, and edited by Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan, Dave Smith, and Nathan Rennolds. Get in touch: insidertoday@insider.com.