Russia got a major reality check in the first weeks of its invasion of Ukraine: Its military failed to “take Kyiv in three days'' (as Russian strategists predicted and Western officials feared it would). Instead, it faces stiff resistance, and the war has dragged on for a year. Here’s a look at what might happen next, and how the conflict could be resolved.

What each side wants

Russia’s leadership no longer appears to be trying to oust Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky from power. Instead, the short-term goal seems to be gaining control over the territories Russia annexed last fall. Putin has said he’s open to negotiations, while Russian troops continue to attack Ukraine’s cities.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials have been unwavering in their stance that a peace settlement is impossible until Russia withdraws from within Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders (which would mean leaving Crimea and regions that had been under the control of Russian-backed separatists since 2014). Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko told Morning Brew that the need to liberate these territories is a consensus view shared by the vast majority of Ukrainians.

What’s to come?

Military experts warn that the situation could morph into a stalemate and the war might drag on for months or even years, with neither side able to make any significant progress.

It’s possible that the two sides will agree to freeze the conflict, which would entail minimal fighting but no peace settlement. But according to Fesenko, “there is a common understanding” among experts that this scenario “will not bring peace, but will only be a pause in the war.” He predicts that meaningful negotiations won’t begin before the end of the year, and that the next six months (at least) will be marked with active combat.

Ukraine’s war effort relies on Western aid, but some voices in the US and EU have been questioning the cost of continuing to support Ukraine on such a scale. But economist Sergei Guriev told us that Ukraine’s allies “can afford this aid easily,” as it represents a very small share of their collective economies.

Guriev believes that a necessary condition for permanent peace is “Putin exiting [power].” He says that after the war ends, Marshall Plan-style aid will be necessary for Ukraine—and Russia. But he says Putin remaining in the Kremlin would herald a future where Russia is “a mix of Iran and North Korea,” economically stagnant and saddled with international sanctions.

But for now…both sides hope to make headway in the coming months and are suffering heavy losses as the fighting goes on.—SK

States sue over abortion pill access. With the overturning of Roe v. Wade opening the door to new abortion restrictions, legal battles over abortion pills are heating up. Yesterday, 12 Democratic state attorneys general sued to strike down “excessively burdensome” dispensing restrictions on the drug mifepristone, part of a two-drug regimen for medication abortions. Meanwhile, a judge in Texas is expected to rule soon in a suit by antiabortion groups trying to overrule the FDA’s approval of the same drug. As of last year, more than half of US abortions were done with pills rather than surgery.

Meta joins the AI race with a llama. Well, not *a* llama, but LLaMA, which stands for Large Language Model Meta AI, Meta announced yesterday. Large language models are the tech that fuels applications like OpenAI’s ChatGPT or Google’s Bard. But LLaMA may be more democratized than its peers in a couple of ways: 1) Any researcher can see its inner workings, which isn’t the case for Google, OpenAI, or Bing and 2) It’s petite compared to its peers, which means it costs less to operate.

Polls open in Nigeria's big election. Today, Africa’s largest country will choose its next president among 18 potential candidates. This election will be one of the most important in the nation’s history, as Nigeria faces an economic and security crisis. The winner will likely be one of three frontrunners, including Atiku Abubakar and Bola Ahmed Tinubu—two candidates seen as political insiders and who have faced corruption allegations in the past. The third is underdog Peter Obi, who has been hailed as an antiestablishment candidate and rallied the country’s young people.

This week, Tennessee lawmakers passed the nation’s first bill restricting public drag performances. It’s the first to pass, but there are at least 20 similar bills proposed around the country by Republican politicians.

The specifics: The bill criminalizes “adult cabaret entertainment” on public property or anywhere children might see. It puts “male or female impersonators” (i.e., drag performers) into that category, regardless of the content of their performance. First-time offenders would be charged with a misdemeanor, and subsequent offenders would face a felony and up to six years in prison.

Proponents of the bill say it protects children from sexualized performances, though critics note the state already has obscenity laws in place that ban things like nudity and sexual content in front of minors.

What does this mean? It eliminates all-ages drag shows like drag brunches and drag queen story hours, and severely limits what will be possible at public pride parades. The language in the legislation could also be interpreted to apply to trans people doing any kind of performance—not just drag, critics warn.

It doesn’t end with drag: At least 340 anti-LGBTQ+ bills that range from limiting gender-affirming care to mandating which bathroom people can use have been introduced in the US this year, according to The Human Rights Campaign.—MM

Keep your little rocket ships grounded, because a federal court ruled yesterday that emojis, specifically , count as investment advice. A New York district court judge wrote in a filing that, even when the word “profit” isn’t directly mentioned, the emojis “objectively mean one thing: a financial return on investment.”

Why was the judge looking at emojis? He was reading the tweets of the non-fungible token company, Dapper Labs—which is being sued over whether its NBA Top Shot NFTs should be registered as securities. Dapper’s a big mark: Sales of the tokenized game highlight clips exceed $1 billion.

The suit claims that the NFTs gained or lost value depending on the success of Dapper’s blockchain—making them more akin to securities like stocks and bonds than collectibles like baseball cards and Beanie Babies.

Looking ahead…the court hasn’t ruled on the status of the NFTs yet, but it did refuse to dismiss the case in the ruling that cited the emojis. If it ultimately does find that Dapper’s NFTs are securities, it could prompt regulators to take a hard look at other NFTs, too.—JW

Stat: Not everyone is as confident as Jerome Powell that the Fed can pull off lowering inflation without also tanking the economy. A group of high-profile economists presented research yesterday saying they’d reviewed 16 times when central banks managed to beat back inflation in the US, UK, Canada, and Germany—and they found exactly zero where it happened without a recession. We’re still gonna spend like it’s not coming, though.

Quote: “It’s not a weekend for the beach.”

We’re guessing most Angelenos are taking that advice and staying inside, since parts of Los Angeles County are under their first blizzard warning since 1989 through this afternoon. The heaviest snowfall will be high in the mountains, where up to eight feet are expected, but the nasty winter storm that has lashed California and swept through the US could have valley-dwellers building snowmen next to palm trees, too.

Read: How I broke into a bank account with an AI-generated voice. (Vice)

Protect yourself: Learn how to stop thieves from stealing your iPhone data.

Meet us at the food court: A deep dive into mall food.

All about the booty: Here’s what to do if you find a shipwreck full of treasure.

Make things grow: These are the veggies experts say it’s easiest to tend.

Plan to retire early: We all want to, but most of us don’t know where to start. That’s why Money with Katie put together this series to help break down the keys to early retirement.

Get cash back: The free Upside app gets you cash back on everyday items like groceries, gas, and at restaurants. Earn an extra 25¢/gal on your first tank with code MORNINGBREW25.*

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Brew Crossword: Pretty sure it was a coincidence, but on the same day Warren Buffett is releasing his shareholder letter, we’re releasing an investing-themed crossword. If you’re bullish, play here.

Open House

Welcome to Open House, the only newsletter section that has accepted it will never be able to afford this mansion. Never. Ever. We’ll give you a few facts about a listing and you try to guess the price.

Today’s home is on the highly exclusive private island of Mustique, a popular vacation spot for rock stars like Mick Jagger and David Bowie, as well as British royalty. “The Terraces” sits on a 17-acre plot. Amenities include:

• 13 beds, 13 baths
• Panoramic views of the Caribbean and Atlantic coasts
• Hand-painted ceilings

How much for this mega-mansion?

Hint: it's one of the most expensive properties in the world.

You have a case; now learn how to articulate it. The Brew’s Get a Raise toolkit helps you confidently ask for a salary boost. Get paid now.

This free email empowers the modern-day business leader to make better technology-related decisions. See for yourself.

Feel like you’re searching for a unicorn in space without a spacesuit? Join HR Brew and Duolingo for a virtual event where you may just find that astronaut attire.