Insider Finance - Business - Red alert recession signals

View in browser

March 26, 2023

Hi, I’m Matt Turner, the editor in chief of business at Insider. Welcome back to Insider Today’s Sunday edition, a roundup of some of our top stories.

On the agenda today:

Miami’s crypto party is over — and the city is facing the fallout.
The inside story of the $12 billion HR startup Deel's breakneck growth.
The “Airbnbust” proves the Wild West days of online vacation rentals are over.
Why Goldman Sachs alumni are being poached by elite hedge funds.

But first: Everyone is back to talking about a recession. I break down the latest below.

If this was forwarded to you, sign up here.

DISPATCH

Red alert

Joshua Roberts/Reuters

2023 started with fresh hope that the US could avoid a recession. It didn’t last long.

Inflation has persisted even as many commodity prices have dropped sharply. Tensions with China have intensified after the US shot down a spy balloon from the country. Add in the recent turmoil in the banking sector, and conditions have taken a serious turn for the worse.

The Federal Reserve last week responded by raising rates by 25 basis points, fewer than the 50 that had been expected just a few weeks ago, but still a hike. Financial conditions are likely to get tighter still as a result of the stress facing small and midsize lenders, which play a significant role in US bank lending.

Tougher lending standards could have the impact of one or multiple rate hikes, Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a post-decision presser. Goldman Sachs agrees, quantifying the effect as 25 to 50 basis points of rate increases.

That has big name investors and market signals predicting a recession, and soon. Bill Gross and Jeff Gundlach, both considered “bond kings” thanks to their investing prowess, sounded the alarm. "Red alert recession signals," Gundlach said.

Even Powell's preferred bond-market indicator says a recession is on the way this year.

Keep up with the latest markets and economy news by signing up for notifications on our app.

DOWNLOAD OUR APP

THIS WEEK'S STORIES

The party is over

Getty Images; Alyssa Powell/Insider

The market winds have changed. And if any city is the city to see that change, it’s Miami, Insider's Linette Lopez writes.

When Linette visited Miami in 2021, it was the capital of crypto and a paradise for a new type of “too-online stock jockey.” She returned in January after the market's meteorological reversal to search for survivors, only to find that the years of wild partying had ended.

What it’s like in Miami now.

‘Deel Speed’

Robyn Phelps/ Insider

Deel, a buzzy human-resources startup, promises to break down the old geographical barriers to recruiting talent by helping companies hire around the world. When the pandemic hit, Deel embraced the moment. It let staff work remotely and subsequently ballooned in size, from a team of fewer than 30 employees to over 2,000.

Deel’s turbocharged growth scored it a private valuation of $12 billion. But according to more than 30 current or former Deel workers, the startup has a growth-at-all-costs mentality that’s blistering even by Silicon Valley standards.

Behind the scenes of Deel’s rapid rise.

Also read:

Workers at $12 billion HR startup Deel say it may have misclassified them as independent contractors. Deel says it has not.

‘Airbnbust’

Arif Qazi / Insider

Whispers of an apocalyptic “Airbnbust” are spreading online. Some hosts say they’re facing a fall in bookings, stiff competition for guests, and tumbling earnings. Yet, at the same time, other hosts are thriving like never before.

The market is a bust for some, a boom for others. But one thing is clear: We’ve hit a turning point in the long-running battle over short-term rentals.

Why the Wild West days are over.

Also read:

Is your Airbnb watching you? Hosts and guests often clash over security cameras

The pilfering of Goldman

Tyler Le/Insider

The world's top hedge funds, from Millennium to Citadel, are increasingly hoovering up talent from Goldman Sachs.

Amid a substantial post-financial-crisis growth spurt, hedge funds have supplanted the world's top investment banks as the most desirable posts for premier Wall Street personnel — and Goldman alumni are top of their wish list.

We’ve charted the migration.

Also read:

Credit Suisse's investment bankers are so concerned about cuts, employees are being told to look for new jobs. 'They encouraged it.'

THIS WEEK'S QUOTE

"Let’s give him the Pedro Pascal treatment."

— A TikTok comment with over 12,000 likes in support of TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew, who had a “disaster” day in front of Congress — but is getting plenty of love on the platform.

MORE TOP READS

Vice, Amazon, & more

Inside the demise of Vice, the media giant that’s now scrambling for a buyer.
Mistakes by the US's top spies let China turn a deadly midair collision into an intelligence coup.
Leaked document shows Amazon's flawed job-posting process led to “over-hiring.”
Ukraine is using captured Russian tanks, but their new gear may not last long.
How one guy is using ChatGPT to launch a business with just $100.
The 26 hottest proptech startups of 2023, according to venture capitalists.
Finland is offering free vacations for people to come and learn how to be happy.
The Google engineering head Urs Hölzle's plan for increased efficiency.

CAN'T GET ENOUGH?

Keep up with Insider

Get Insider's app and notifications to be the first to find out about the stories you want to know — from tech to business. Download it here.
Become an Insider subscriber to get actionable, high-value news and insights to improve your career, company, and community. Subscribe here.
Want more of Insider in your inbox? Sign up for our newsletters here.

This edition was curated by Matt Turner, and edited by Dave Smith, Hallam Bullock, and Lisa Ryan. Get in touch: insidertoday@insider.com.

Email sent to: you

Manage your email preferences | Unsubscribe | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy

Key phrases

premier Wall Street personnel substantial postfinancialcrisis growth spurt Red alert recession signals many commodity prices Tougher lending standards big name investors preferred bondmarket indicator online stock jockey buzzy humanresources startup old geographical barriers Silicon Valley standards Pedro Pascal treatment Shou Zi Chew The Federal Reserve Wild West days online vacation rentals multiple rate hikes A TikTok comment elite hedge funds Top hedge funds top investment banks Goldman Sachs alumni US bank lending former Deel workers

Older messages

An SVB employee lost over $1 million

Saturday, March 25, 2023

Plus: 'Quiet firing' tips, and 12 cities where you can live cheaply. View in browser Subscribe March 25, 2023 Hello, Insiders. Welcome to our Saturday edition — and the first full weekend of

TikTok CEO’s testimony went viral

Friday, March 24, 2023

Plus: 'House hacking' your first home, and Amazon return-to-office. View in browser Subscribe March 24, 2023 Hello, Insiders. This is Shona Ghosh, the deputy executive editor for Insider in the

Wall Street: Real estate’s bounce back

Friday, March 24, 2023

The latest in finance. View in browser INSIDER INSIDER Subscribe 10 THINGS ON WALL STREET Happy Friday! Dan DeFrancesco in NYC, and I'm feeling inspired after watching this video of a bouncer

Get ready for more blackouts

Thursday, March 23, 2023

Plus: Fox News behind closed doors, and inside the life of a golf cart girl. View in browser Subscribe March 23, 2023 Hello, Insiders! This is Joe Ciolli, a deputy executive editor in Insider's

Wall Street: For UBS, mo money mo problems

Thursday, March 23, 2023

The latest in finance. View in browser INSIDER INSIDER Subscribe 10 THINGS ON WALL STREET Almost Friday! Dan DeFrancesco in NYC, and I finally got the backstory on the crumbling mansion I used to see

🚀 Dispatches from Tech Week

Sunday, June 4, 2023

Plus, a Puppy of the Week reunion! ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

🐕 Sick as a dog

Sunday, June 4, 2023

The US added way more jobs than expected | A vet drugmaker got snapped up | TOGETHER WITH Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for June 5th in 3:04 minutes. 🎓 Get schooled in AI investing. Join

Vet bills are rising – what can pet owners do?

Sunday, June 4, 2023

Peace of mind is closer than you think ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌

Wall Street’s ugly new normal

Sunday, June 4, 2023

Plus: Meet the average US millennial, and AI's coming for the mediocre middle. View in browser Subscribe June 4, 2023 Hi, I'm Matt Turner, the editor in chief of business at Insider. Welcome

The travel hack airlines hate

Saturday, June 3, 2023

Plus: Glamping for $4000 a night, and why Europe tix are so pricey. View in browser Subscribe June 3, 2023 Happy Saturday, Insiders! Our reporters have been digging into a travel trend that you can

Back to inflation

Saturday, June 3, 2023

Bloomberg Weekend Reading View in browser Bloomberg With America's debt limit drama and its potential for triggering a catastrophic default in the rearview mirror, we return to your regular

Greenback backlash

Friday, June 2, 2023

Bloomberg Evening Briefing View in browser Bloomberg All around the world, a backlash is brewing against the hegemony of the US dollar. Brazil and China recently struck a deal to settle trade in their

Want to unlock your home’s hidden value?

Friday, June 2, 2023

You may be sitting on more equity than you think — find out more today ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌

Creating a Monster

Friday, June 2, 2023

When innovation goes wrong ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Wall Street: A once-in-a-lifetime deal

Friday, June 2, 2023

The latest in finance. View in browser INSIDER INSIDER Subscribe 10 THINGS ON WALL STREET The weekend is here! Dan DeFrancesco in NYC, and I'm disappointed Prison Mike didn't give me a heads up