As recently as Thursday morning, I expressed a modicum of cautious optimism about the United States avoiding its first-ever default. White House negotiators met with House Republicans and seemed to be making progress. While I had concerns about the contents of such a deal, a budget agreement to lift the debt ceiling was quite possible. It wasn’t just me. Washington and Wall Street were feeling good. The market had even been trending up on the expectation that a financial catastrophe would be averted.

On Friday morning, optimism turned to panic. The negotiators hit an impasse and paused further discussions. We are less than two weeks away from the so called  “X date” when the U.S. could run out of money, default on its debts, and spark the most devastating unforced error in history. Over the weekend, talks were back on and then off again. As I write this, the Republican offers are heading in the wrong direction, and no meetings between the negotiators are scheduled.

Is this theater? Are we screwed? Should we panic? Buy gold? Bury our money in the backyard?

The debt ceiling reports from the legacy media are nothing short of horrendous. And confusing. Much of it is laundering the viewpoints of the GOP leadership aides upon which Capitol Hill reporters depend for scoops. Their “journalism” excuses the irresponsible position of Republicans and puts all of the onus of preventing default on Joe Biden and the Democrats. I don’t blame anyone for being confused.

Here’s what you need to know based on my experience working in the White House during the last two Republican-engineered debt ceiling crises...