Finimize - 🏦 Wall Street was wrong

Airbus bagged the world's juiciest order from IndiGo | China's banks cut lending rates |

Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for June 21st in 3:09 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. Airbus bagged the biggest aircraft order in history from India’s IndiGo
  2. Here’s how Wall Street’s 2023 forecasts are working out so far – Read Now
  3. Chinese banks cut their benchmark lending rates for the first time in almost a year

Plane Sailing

Plane Sailing

What’s going on here?

Airbus, the European aircraft behemoth, just hit a sky-high record, inking a deal to sell 500 planes to IndiGo.

What does this mean?

The global aviation industry has been on a rollercoaster ride lately. A few years ago, it was all about grounded fleets and massive losses. But fast forward to today, and we’re seeing soaring profits and gung-ho airlines outbidding each other with record orders. The Paris Air Show, taking place this week after a four-year hiatus, is the perfect stage to showcase that newfound pizzazz – and Airbus has gone and stolen the show, bagging the biggest aircraft order in history from IndiGo, India’s largest airline by market share.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: Possible turbulence.

All that gusto has got some industry veterans warning that airlines might be biting off more than they can chew. Just months ago, Air India set a record with an order for 470 aircraft. Add to that the huge purchases by Ryanair and Saudi startup Riyadh Air earlier this year, and we’re looking at announced deals nearing 1,500 airplanes. See, if economic growth slows and travel demand dips after the post-pandemic rush, airlines could find themselves back in the red. And if that proves to be the case, then they could be back to their loss-making ways sooner than Ryanair starts charging passengers to use the toilet.

The bigger picture: High-flying future.

This deal is more than just a feather in the cap for the aviation industry: it’s a testament to India’s growing global stature. After all, India recently leapfrogged China to become the world’s most populous nation – and unlike China, India’s population is predominantly young and growing. So, with half of its population under 30 and over two-thirds in the working age bracket, it’s no wonder India’s on track to become the world’s fastest-growing major economy in the near future.

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Analyst Take

The Pros Got It Wrong: How The Big Calls For 2023 Are Panning Out

The Pros Got It Wrong: How The Big Calls For 2023 Are Panning Out

By Russell Burns, Analyst

Every January, the best-known names across Wall Street release their predictions for the coming year.

They usually make headlines for a while, and then mostly get forgotten.

But this year’s been a banger, and a lot of those experts have been scrambling to update those forecasts.

So, as we rush up to 2023’s halfway mark, it seems like a great time to take a look at how the big calls for this year are panning out, how they’re changing, and what to look for as we head into the second half.

That’s today’s Insight: the stock market rally, the 60/40, and the big calls that went wrong.

Read or listen to the Insight here


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China’s Chop

China’s Chop

What’s going on here?

Chinese banks did a bit of a pivot on Tuesday, cutting their benchmark lending rates for the first time since the dog days of last summer.

What does this mean?

China’s economy kicked off the year at a sprint, but recently, it’s been more of a leisurely stroll. Retail sales, industrial production, and infrastructure spending all dipped in May, which is why the Chinese central bank decided to trim both short-term and medium-term interest rates last week, marking the first cuts since August 2022.

Chinese banks followed suit on Tuesday, shaving their own benchmark lending rates. Both the one-year and five-year “loan prime rates” got a 0.1 percentage point trim, leaving them at 3.55% and 4.2% respectively. The game plan: to make borrowing cheaper and give the Chinese economy a much-needed adrenaline shot.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: Real estate, real difficult.

Investors were crossing their fingers for a bigger, 0.15-percentage-point cut to the five-year rate. You see, that rate’s tied to mortgages, and a heftier cut could have given a greater boost to the country’s ailing property market. And this isn’t small beans we’re talking about: after all, the property sector accounts for a whopping 24% of China’s economy. So, many economists think that it’ll take more than this to breathe life back into the property market – like financial lifelines for cash-strapped developers or government incentives aimed at reducing mortgage down payments.

The bigger picture: The crowd goes mild.
May’s economic slowdown has some economists adjusting their predictions. JPMorgan, UBS, and Standard Chartered all trimmed their 2023 growth forecasts to 5.5% or lower last week. And not to be outdone, Goldman Sachs joined the choir over the weekend, lowering its own forecast from 6% to 5.4%. But let’s not lose perspective: these new estimates still outstrip China’s official 5% growth target – its least ambitious one in over thirty years.

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💬 Quote of the day

"Never trust people who smile constantly. They're either selling something or not very bright."

– Laurell K. Hamilton (an American fantasy and romance writer)
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