Finimize - 🛩 Low-flying forecasts

What’s going on here?

While the smartphone market is dialing down, Apple’s iPhone is holding firm.

What does this mean?

The global phone market has been on the slide lately, with data from Counterpoint Research showing sales fell for eight straight quarters. But demand for $600-and-up models is growing, and Apple, the maestro of upmarket handsets, is reaping the rewards. That’s let the firm swoop in and reach record market share across new markets – like India, for example, where Apple’s growth hit 50% just last quarter. That kind of performance might be why the company’s planning to keep its iPhone shipments steady, despite the broader industry’s issues. And with some price hikes reportedly coming soon, Apple’s cash register might just ring a little louder before long.

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: One bad apple.

As the world’s most valuable company, Apple has the global economy hanging on its every quarterly report. Its sprawling supply chains stretch from Uncle Sam’s backyard to the bustling factories of China and Vietnam. So when Apple manages to keep its head above water in the choppy seas of the smartphone market, you can bet there’s a collective sigh of relief echoing through the halls of its suppliers like TSMC and Foxconn – and the millions they employ.

For markets: Tech-tonic shift.

US tech giants’ stocks have been on a tear this year, so much so that the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 resorted to a “special rebalance” to reduce their massive sway over the index. This tweak – which came into effect on Monday – reduced the weightings of the biggest tech firms from a hefty 50% to a more balanced 40% of the index. But while the move reduces the risk of these heavyweights pulling the market down with them, it also means the rest of the index will have to pull its weight to keep the Nasdaq’s momentum going.

What’s going on here?

Ryanair’s profit boomed last quarter – but its touch-and-go forecasts suggest the future’s uncertain.

What does this mean?

Hot on the heels of EasyJet’s record profit, Ryanair – Europe’s biggest airline by passenger numbers – also had a moment in the sun. The cut-price carrier capitalized on a surge in summer demand, which pushed its average airfare up 42% from the same quarter last year. And that uptick helped offset the headwinds of higher fuel prices and employee costs, helping the firm sail to a profit nearly four times greater than last year’s quarterly takings.

But despite setting a new record profit for the period, Ryanair’s long-term future is less clear. First, there are worries about a potential slowdown in travel. And then there are Boeing’s delayed planes, which have forced Ryanair to cut its full-year passenger growth forecast. That uncertainty didn’t sit well with investors, who sent shares down 8%.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: Lofty ambitions and low-low prices.

Penny-pinching customers could actually play into Ryanair’s hands. After all, folk are likely to become more price-sensitive as economic turmoil bites. And that would suit the low-cost carrier just fine – especially given its plan to lower prices even further this winter, when it will have 25% more seats to sell than in 2019. If that pays off, the Irish firm could grab even more of the European market over time, helping to meet its goal of a 30% share come 2034.

The bigger picture: Plane talk.

Travel demand might seem robust now, but make no mistake, customers are already making changes. Case in point: low-cost giants like Ryanair are already seeing an uptick in better-off customers using their services. Plus, over 80% of Brits say the cost of flights has been influencing their destinations, so they’re opting for shorter city breaks over longer beach vacations this summer – and trading down on hotels too.