The national Democratic Party is going all in on ‘Bidenomics,’ a term coined to encapsulate Pres. Joe Biden’s economic agenda. Leaders of the national party believe that touting the president’s economic successes is key to winning re-election, so much so, that the party’s House Majority PAC is directing left-leaning candidates across the nation to “go on offense” about the economy.

Biden’s economic plan rests on the thesis that the “the best way to grow the economy is from the middle out and the bottom up.” Yet the metrics that the party uses to justify its success (job numbers, the unemployment rate, GDP growth) are increasingly out of touch with average Americans’ bank accounts. While unemployment is historically low and GDP growth is unexpectedly strong, only 37% of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of the economy. Let’s dissect this disconnect as it proves why “going on offense” on the economy is likely to do Democrats more harm than good in 2024.

Is ‘Bidenomics’ Growing the Middle Class?

While the primary tenet of ‘Bidenomics’ is growing the middle class, middle class Americans are telling pollsters that they’re not seeing economic prosperity. In a Monmouth University poll from April 2023, only 10% of middle-class Americans said that they benefited “a lot” from Biden’s economic policies so far while 51% say the middle class has not benefited at all. Trends are even more troubling for the party when zeroing in on a key Democratic demographic: young voters. In that same poll, voters aged 18-34 ranked “everyday bills, food, groceries” as their top ranking concern above crime, climate change and taxes.

More than half of both Gen Z and millennials are living paycheck to paycheck (some studies claim the population is as high as three-quarters of all young voters.) This is due to the fact that young voters hold significantly less wealth than previous generations did at the same age. Young voters are turning to credit cards to afford basic living expenses and are also the primary drivers of the emerging “buy-now, pay-later” trend in finance. This economic hardship has occurred before student loan payments have kicked in: estimates vary wildly but most expect borrowers to pay at least an extra $200 a month starting in October. (Some estimates predict the average monthly payment will be as high as $500.)

Taking a victory lap on the economy just as 43 million people are watching their expenses increase is only going to sour voters’ attitudes and make Democrats look like they care more about corporate profits than everyday Americans’ bank accounts. Young voters are already skeptical about Biden’s re-election campaign; now is not the time to piss on our legs and tell us it’s raining… ⛈️

“There’s a disconnect between the data and the way people are feeling.... It takes time for people to sort of absorb the fact that we’re in very good shape.”

- Sen. Angus King (I-ME, caucuses with Democrats)

More Jobs ≠ Good Jobs

Political obsession over monthly job growth numbers is increasingly misguided. The ‘Bidenomics’ pitch wastes a lot of time touting their jobs-related successes — 13.4 million jobs gained, the most under any single administration — and a historically low unemployment rate. Sure, this sounds great, but it loses its shine when you realize that more Americans than ever are working multiple jobs to make ends meet.

Again, turning to Democrats’ core voting demographic of young voters: 37% of millennials and 46% of Gen Zers have cited that financial concerns have forced them to seek out second jobs. That’s because as inflation continues to push prices upward and outpace wages, less and less of these new jobs pay a living wage. The same can be said of racialized minorities: while minorities have slightly lower labor participation rates nationally, those that do work are more likely to hold multiple jobs than their White counterparts.

Labor Strikes Highlight Our Inequitable Economy

Hundreds of thousands of workers have come forward over the past few months to raise their grievances about the ways corporate greed is directly hampering their ability to do their jobs and live a healthy life. While the spotlight has been on Hollywood with the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, workers in the hospitality, food service, logistics/shipping, and automotive industries are also either currently on strike or have come dangerously close to striking in recent months. The common grievance throughout these labor disputes: corporations reported record profits then failed to reinvest that profit back into the company via compensation increases or capital investment. Democrats have stayed at arms length, often at the behest of the unions themselves. But openly bragging about the robustness of the post-pandemic economy while workers across industries are striking due to economic hardship? Not a good look… 😬

Maybe Just Don’t Call It ‘Bidenomics’?

“If you use the term ‘Bidenomics,’ but somebody can’t afford their groceries, then they’re like, ‘Yeah, Bidenomics isn’t working for me.” - Rep. Susan Wild (D-VA)

Democrats have other avenues for electoral success, many of which touch on Biden’s economic wins without discounting the economic struggles that the majority of Americans are experiencing. Rep. Susan Wild’s approach to touting the president’s economic agenda in her swing district is through avoiding the ‘Bidenomics’ label altogether. Instead, she explicitly defines Democratic policy wins like the expansion of broadband access included in the 2021 infrastructure law or the price cap on insulin included in the Inflation Reduction Act. This approach clearly communicates what Democrats have accomplished in Biden’s first term while allowing struggling Americans to feel like they’re being heard.

But the bigger takeaway here is that Democrats may be committing an unforced error in trying to spin our erratic economy into a golden narrative. Why is the party so committed to this uphill battle when campaigns centered on protecting abortion rights have produced clear and consistent electoral wins? Our post-Roe environment has proven that the issue is a strong motivator for left-leaning voters in red states, swing states and blue states. Addressing voter concerns about the economy will be necessary in 2024 but campaigning on a narrative that’s at odds with the lived reality of most Americans is a losing strategy. Go ahead and brag about substantive legislative wins but overstating their impacts will only turn voters away.

Leftover Links

• Record share of Americans are raiding their 401(k) plans due to financial hardship.

• While Republicans are split on their own economic agenda, they don’t need one to court angry voters.