Finimize - 🌎 Tourism 2.0

What’s going on here?

New data suggests that the high-flying travel industry is set to go from strength to strength.

What does this mean?

You might be hoping that jam-packed tourist hotspots are just a fleeting feature of post-Covid travel. But according to the World Travel & Tourism Council, this isn’t just a phase: instead, we’re boarding a long-haul, one-way flight to a tourism-fueled future. The organization projects that the travel industry will balloon from its pre-pandemic value of $10 trillion to a staggering $15.5 trillion by 2033 – making up almost an eighth of the global economy. And with that kind of size, travel's poised to become a major job market player too, potentially fueling one in every nine jobs globally.

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: Flying solo.

The travel industry’s set to stand out too, with the sector expected to grow almost twice as fast as the wider global economy. And a lot of that impressive growth is set to come from China. See, Chinese tourists are in a lull right now, but by 2024, they’re predicted to return in full force. To put it in numbers: the US might be the current travel economy champ, but China’s on track to take that crown, edging past the US’s anticipated $3 trillion contribution to the sector with a whopping $4 trillion by 2033.

Zooming out: Boxed in.

There could be some turbulence on the cards for cargo bigwigs. See, while air cargo saw record demand when the pandemic hit and supply chains faltered, things are looking very different now. With commercial flights back in the skies, their cargo holds are back in business too, giving dedicated freighters a run for their money. Pair that with dwindling demand for goods and rising costs (like fuel), and air cargo giants might want to buckle up for a bumpy ride.

What’s going on here?

Data out on Monday showed that British property sellers are taking the scissors to their asking prices.

What does this mean?

With the Bank of England having ramped up interest rates 14 times in a row, mortgage rates have climbed to a vertigo-inducing decade-plus high. And that’s probably driving the troubling pattern that lenders are spotting, with house prices falling at some of the sharpest rates since the financial crisis. July marked the fourth straight month of price drops, according to Halifax – and new data suggests that trend’s only set to continue: an index tracking the price of newly available homes fell 1.9% this month, in the biggest dip since December. And given that sellers typically only slash prices as a last resort, this trend is a pretty clear sign of where the market’s at – and just how deep (or shallow) buyers’ pockets are.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: Rock and a hard place.

For many Brits, the housing market’s turbulence is a double-edged sword. See, while buying a house is becoming an uphill battle, the rental market isn’t any friendlier. After all, the effect of higher rates still feeds through: landlords, facing increased costs, are simply passing the buck to their tenants. And with more people renting due to the challenges of homeownership, demand has surged too. The upshot is that UK rents rose by 5.3% in the 12 months to July – marking the biggest annual uptick since records began.

The bigger picture: House poor.

This isn’t helping the broader economy either. See, in a phenomenon dubbed the “wealth effect”, we tend to spend more when the value of our assets, like homes, goes up – even if our salaries stay stagnant. And given that a home is often the crown jewel of a household’s assets, even those who’ve settled their mortgages might think twice before splurging now, which could spiral into a vicious cycle.