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Hi friends!

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Welcome to September 🍁 Here's what's interesting...

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→ Your odds at stock picking.

→ Wages go up while the job market shrinks.

→ Intermediate-term bonds are getting hot.

→ Amazon and Shopify team up.

→ New Deal Corner.

→ An open-source wealth management tool, and more...

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Let's go...

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Stock picking is hard.

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Probably the #1 reason why many don't do it, and why so few are super successful at it.​

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Of course, it's a long game but if we look at the last 5 years, stock pickers had a 25% chance of picking a loser. One in four lost money even though the S&P 500 was up over 50% in that same period.

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Big tech is obviously the main contributor for the gainz.

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Still even after the crazy bull run the last few years, a full 125 stocks on the S&P500 are priced lower now than they were 5 years ago.

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Some are going to take more than a miracle to rebound - meaning many probably won't.

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The article being referenced (linked below) tries to make a few points, but what are your takeaways?

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One I think is that stock-picking to try and beat the index SHOULD be hard. Failure is the price some people will have to pay for attempting to outperform.

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Another, perhaps a better takeaway, is that this is all completely normal.

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Yes it feels bad to have an investment go down. But much of the world runs on power laws. Markets most certainly do. We generally hear about this in venture capital, but the power laws are just as applicable to large public companies as they are to small private ones.

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Most of the gains will always come from a few outliers.

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→ Read: 25% Of The S&P 500 Are 'Dead Money' Stocks You Likely Own​

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Did you know?

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🗞️ BUSINESS & FINANCEY STUFF

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🤑 Stock-Based Compensation is a trendy way to reward employees, but not everyone agrees. It may sometimes save cash and offer tax perks, but SBC dilutes the earnings pie for existing shareholders and has frequently been abused by company management everywhere.

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🤑 BlackRock's potential spot bitcoin ETF could offer a more transparent and affordable option but it might not bring in the gold rush we're all hoping for, but instead, shift liquidity around in a zero-sum game.

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🤑 T-bills are so yesterday. Yields around 5%, higher if the Fed keeps hiking rates, until of course they're forced into a rate cut. The yield gap between them and longer-term bonds is narrowing so now intermediate-term bonds are cool - ain't this fun?

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🤑 Two ETFs popped up to test Jim Cramer's stock picks: one that followed his advice and another that did the opposite. The one tracking Cramer's picks is closing, even though it outperformed the other 🤷‍♂️ ​

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🤑 Not that long ago COVID was going to end brick-and-mortar as we knew it. Seems people love shopping too much - suburban malls and dollar stores are the new hotspots. Retail's evolving, and could be a smart profitable investment.

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🤑 Another one down. Amazon aggregator Benitago files for Bankruptcy protection two years after raising $300M+ (non paywall version). More aggregators are in trouble for sure.

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🤑 With the holiday shopping season approaching, the Panama canal congestion could could be a serious problem. If you're an inventory-based business owner, have a contingency plan, shippers are paying close to $3M to skip the line.

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🤑 Amazon and Shopify are joining forces in a weird twist. Shopify will allow its merchants to display the “Buy with Prime” button, making it super easy for shoppers to use their Amazon wallets at checkout.​

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🖥️ The Extras

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♦︎ Ghostfolio is an open-source, lightweight wealth management app for individuals to keep track of stocks, ETFs or cryptocurrencies and make solid, data-driven investment decisions.

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♦︎ Data privacy concerns raised by the EU could force Meta to offer a paid premium version of Facebook and Instagram, which would be ... gulp ... ad free!

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♦︎ Almost 70% of online shoppers load up their carts but ghost before paying. Imagine 10 people in line at your store, and 7 just dropped their bags and left. Consumers leave $18B in abandoned carts every year - here's how to avoid.

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Charlie Light @charliewrich And is this "passive income" in the room with us right now? 5:28 PM • Aug 31, 2023 39 Retweets 410 Likes Read 16 replies

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🤝 DEAL CORNER

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MEMBERS ONLY👇

Not a member? Fix that and join the waitlist here.​

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If you're not a member click the link above☝️and get on the waitlist now, as we'll be opening to new members within a few weeks! If you're on the waitlist already - keep an eye on your inbox!

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Great chats and threads from the Discord you may have missed…

• ​Bond ETFs vs direct ownership? A great conversation here.
• Travis still has crypto hedgefunds trapped in the universe for two years.
• Mark looking for bank options with reasonable wire transfer fees.
• Rob gets recommendations on supplements for liver detox.
• Steve saw a familiar face as the sponsor of Morning Brew.
• Matthew shares a platform for exchanging crypto for fiat.

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In the forum...

• The Marketplace is updated every week with new curated online business acquisition deals - Saas, Websites, Apps, Agencies, & Ecom businesses.
• Periodically Travis will host a guest in a 'Fireside' chat - Members can access recordings of all our Fireside Chats anytime here.​

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Disclaimer: Not financial, investing or tax advice. This newsletter is strictly for information, entertainment and education purposes. Nothing in here is investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This newsletter is not tax advice. Talk to your professional advisors. Do your own research. There will also be affiliate links in here from time to time because we like free money.