Insider Today: Fallout from Treasury crash

October 24, 2023 • 5 min read

with Dan DeFrancesco

Hello! If you’re a fan of celebrity gossip, you’re in luck. The divorce playbook for celebs has changed, and we can all expect more leaks.

In today’s big story, we’re looking at how the meltdown in Treasurys is impacting you, whether you think so or not.

What’s on deck:

But first, there's more pain to come.

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The big story

Treasury trouble

If you’ve paid even a bit of attention to the market over the past few months, chances are you’ve heard the commotion over US Treasury yields.

Specifically, the 10-year Treasury yield has gotten lots of attention. On Monday, it briefly surpassed 5% for the first time since 2007 as the sell-off in the bond market continues. (Prices and yields are inversely related; the more people sell Treasurys, the higher their yields go, and vice versa.)

That’s caused lots of pain for stocks, as the returns offered by bonds look better by comparison. But even if you have zero interest in the market, Treasury volatility impacts you. Insider’s Jennifer Sor highlighted four different charts showing how soaring bond yields affect US consumers.

From mortgage rates to personal loans and credit card debt, there are lots of ways consumers are feeling the pain.

Federal Reserve

Treasury yields climbing means the cost of getting cash for everyone else increases.

Since Treasurys are a debt obligation to the US government, they are considered one of the safest investments. 

And while you might think you’re a better debtor than Uncle Sam, good luck finding an investor not related to you who will lend you money for less than what the Federal government is offering to pay. 

As a result, Treasurys serve as the de-facto benchmark for lenders. The riskier the debt, the higher it’ll be compared to the 10-year Treasury yield. (Insider’s Alistair Barr has a fantastic explainer on this dynamic.) 

So with that in mind, are we all screwed?

At least one high-profile investor has already closed out his bet that Treasury prices would fall. That would be billionaire Bill Ackman, who said he closed a profitable short position against 30-year Treasury bonds. 

That sounds promising, right? 

Not quite.

Ackman said there are “too many risks in the world” to keep betting against US government bonds. Treasurys are widely considered to be among the safest investments in the world, and investors tend to flock to them during times of heightened uncertainty. “The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggest,” Ackman said in a post on X. 

So yes, Treasury yields could fall. But it’d likely result from an economic slump that comes with its own set of headaches.

3 things in

Markets

🔔 Before the opening bell: US stock futures rise early Tuesday as investors await economic data about services and manufacturing sectors

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1. Jeremy Siegel makes the case for stocks. The famous Wharton professor isn’t worried about inflation or interest rates. Even geopolitical risks pose an opportunity for stock investors because “stocks climb the wall of worry,” he said in an interview.

2. The state of the housing market in all 50 states. Market research firm Moody’s estimates that US home prices are 15.7% above their fundamental value. But on a state-by-state basis, real-estate varies from being undervalued (Maryland) to overvalued (North Carolina).

3. A recession still looms despite strong economic growth. Investment firm Raymond James warned an economic downturn could come despite data indicating strong GDP growth. These are the key warning signs, from consumer headwinds to high borrowing costs.

3 things in

Tech

Arantza Pena Popo/Insider

1. Inside a culture of absolute fealty to an erratic and vindictive CEO. Former employees say Carta has been fraught with discrimination and harassment. The unicorn startup is embroiled in legal battles with former employees — many alleging retaliation.

2. Leaked email: Nvidia is paying its Israel-based employees a bonus. Plus, the company is planning to raise at least $10 million in humanitarian aid by matching donations. Meanwhile, Microsoft shut down internal employee discussions on the Israel-Hamas war.

3. Flexport layoffs came as a relief for some employees. Former Deliverr and Shopify employees said the job cuts capped the end of a multiyear rollercoaster: multiple complicated acquisitions and integrations, compensation issues, and culture clashes.

3 things in

Business

Joanne Joo for Insider

1. The sad, lonely secret behind America’s never-ending wave of Marvel movies. Nostalgia is a strong, powerful emotion that motivates making so many reboots. But the rise of nostalgia masks an even greater feeling that’s permeating younger generations: loneliness.

2. The $3 billion edtech darling that threw lavish parties, struggled to vet tutors, and laid off hundreds of staffers. GoStudent was a point of pride for the European tech scene, including landing a $340 million funding round. But less than two weeks after throwing a massive party, an entire office was shuttered and the first round of layoffs hit.

3. Most of the world’s largest advertisers have stopped buying ads on Elon Musk’s X. Exclusive new data revealed that an overwhelming majority of the world's biggest-spending advertisers have pulled away after Musk’s acquisition.

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The Insider Today team

Dan DeFrancesco, senior editor and anchor, in New York City. Diamond Naga Siu, senior reporter, in San Diego. Hallam Bullock, editor, in London. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York.

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