Finimize - 🇨🇳 China's moving again

British inflation hit its lowest pace in two years | China's shoppers hit the streets again |


Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for November 16th in 3:15 minutes.

🍳 Finimized over baked eggs at The Hardware Societe in Melbourne, Australia (22°C/72°F 🌤)

Today's big stories

  1. UK inflation finally fell below 5%, its slowest pace in two years
  2. Here’s what you need to know now to invest in China and India – Read Now
  3. China's retail sales and production numbers beat expectations in October, offering a distraction from the country’s troublesome property sector

Work Of Smarts

Work Of Smarts

What’s going on here?

UK prices rose at their slowest pace in two years, so the writing on the wall may finally be optimistic.

What does this mean?

British prices were 4.6% higher this October than last, which plots inflation at twice the Bank of England’s (BoE) target. But Brits will take that: October’s uptick looks tame compared to September’s 6.7%, and marks the slowest pace of increases this year. What’s more, lower energy prices aren’t the only catalyst, with both core – excluding volatile food and energy prices – and services inflation landing lower than economists expected. And the British government will be celebrating, too, finally fulfilling the promise it made in January to halve inflation before the end of the year.

Why should I care?

For markets: Stocks are ready and waiting.

That slowdown didn’t come easily: the BoE pulled interest rates to extreme heights in an effort to curb inflation. So now that prices seem to be letting up, the central bank could consider cutting those rates – or at least leaving them where they are – to support the economy. Investors already believe the BoE will trim rates three times next year, starting from June. And that could help stocks dust themselves off: lower rates plump up the present value of stocks’ future cash flows, giving their valuations a leg up, while also making it cheaper for companies to borrow money and invest in themselves.

The bigger picture: It’ll be a bumpy ride.

Thing is, worldwide events like supply chain kinks and war were partly behind Britain’s price bumps. While that impact has mostly leveled out, the remaining inflation could be harder to budge. And even if prices stop climbing, their current level is enough to pinch workers without inflation-related pay rises. Mix in heating geopolitical tensions and transforming technology, and the takeaway is clear: the end of inflation doesn’t mean the end of volatility.

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Analyst Take

India vs China: The Long-Term Investment Case For Emerging Market Nations

India vs China: The Long-Term Investment Case For Emerging Market Nations

Two emerging markets look like the future.

India has the world’s biggest population, and China’s an engine that can drive global growth.

Indian stocks are up 3.8% this year. And the country’s long-term investment story is difficult to ignore, although rising oil prices could derail the run.

Chinese stocks, meanwhile, are down 12%. But this economy’s troubles are a story for right now: over the longer term, its prospects look strong.

So that’s today’s Insight: the long-term investment cases for India and China, and low- and high-octane ways to bet on both these markets.

Read or listen to the Insight here


Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you are unlikely to be protected if something goes wrong. Take 2 minutes to learn more.

Experts have run the game for too long

Pro investors can get their hands on pretty much any opportunity that tickles their fancy.

But for most modern investors, limited funds and roped-off entry points mean you have to make the most of a limited batch.

Unless, that is, you catch onto the occasional chance to level the playing field: Crowdcube and Haatch are making it easier to invest in SEIS funds, essentially a portal to early-stage firms.

These opportunities would usually run you about £10,000, but this partnership means you can buy in for a fifth of that price.

You’ll get some sweet tax breaks on these investments too. The fund just launched this week, and has already attracted roughly £280,000 from 90 investors.

Find out More

Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you are unlikely to be protected if something goes wrong. Take 2 minutes to learn more.
Information is for guidance only and is dependent on individual circumstances. It is always recommended that you take professional advice regarding tax reliefs for your individual circumstances.

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Golden Touch

Golden Touch

What’s going on here?

Chinese retail sales finally ticked up in October, so maybe the country ought to make its lucrative Golden Week public holiday a more frequent affair.

What does this mean?

China’s shoppers haven’t been generous lately, not least because falling property prices have undermined folks’ confidence in their biggest asset. But cheaper prices seemed to convince the country to spend last month: retail sales were over 7% higher in October than at the same time last year. (Mind you, those older figures were lower than usual, partly because the country skipped its money-making Golden Week holiday last year.) Industrial sectors – think mining, manufacturing, and energy – picked up too, making a better-than-expected 4.6% more of their goodies than the same time last year. That said, the ailing country’s far from recovered. Investment in fixed assets – physical items that businesses use in their operations – slipped below forecasts this year, pulled down by lackluster interest in the property industry. The central bank’s taking that seriously, pumping the banking system up with the most cash since 2016 to support the economy.

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: All problems are not made equal.

The Chinese real estate sector – with its debt-laden companies and empty apartments – could weigh on the country for up to a decade. But don’t count the whole country out for that long. Certain sectors are already recovering, and the companies within them could shake off their slump within a year. Tech giants Tencent and Alibaba will soon reveal whether they’re on track for that: they announce quarterly results later this week.

For markets: Everyone loves an underdog.

Analysts at UBS certainly seem to believe in China’s potential, predicting that the country’s stocks will beat Indian ones next year. That take goes against the grain, but since Chinese stocks are trading for way less than Indian equivalents, investors may well take the opportunity to lock in longer-term prospects at a discount.

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Despite this economic downturn, retail investors are optimistic.

Yup, 84% of the hardy bunch we surveyed are planning to invest more or the same as last quarter, with 67% predicting that global stock markets will be higher a year.

And women are bringing out the big guns: 42% of female investors have between $5,000 and 100,000 to invest in the next year, and more than a third plan to invest over 11% of their monthly income.

See, despite being painted as less confident than male investors, the women we surveyed said that wasn't the case. In fact, more than three-quarters are fully confident in managing their investments themselves.

If you want the rest of the scoop on how retail investors are trading, you can grab the full report here.

Read The Report
💬 Quote of the day

"The trouble with super heroes is what to do between phone booths."

– Ken Kesey (an American novelist)
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Swap drama for data

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AAII is not a registered investment adviser or a broker/dealer. Readers are advised that articles are provided solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities. The opinions and analyses included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness. Continue reading disclaimer here.

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🎯 On Our Radar

1. Emotions are complicated. Turns out each individual one behaves in its own unique way.

2. You should take crypto protection seriously. Here’s what makes the OG blockchain safer than Fort Knox.*

3. The new classic. Netflix's stop-motion Pokémon show is arriving just in time for the holidays.

4. Gyms, restaurants, car dealerships. Celebrities and the ultra-wealthy have been investing in franchises for years, and now you can too.*

5. It's the end of the world. Microsoft is rolling out a deep-fake creator.

When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that.

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