Finimize - ✨ Europe is winning

What’s going on here?

European inflation landed on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target in November – if you squint a little, that is.

What does this mean?

Prices in Europe were 2.4% higher this November than last, and if you generously round down, that’s pretty much the ECB’s target. What’s more, core inflation – which takes changeable food and energy prices out of the equation – came in well below expectations at 3.6%. But the central bank can’t put its feet up yet: high interest rates squashed inflation, and they could do the same to the economy if left unchecked. So now that prices are roughly where the ECB wants them, investors are expecting interest rates to be cut sooner rather than later.

Why should I care?

For markets: Move over, ‘Murica.

The US tends to hog the limelight, but Europe deserves to have a moment. The region’s put the shackles on inflation while keeping unemployment down at 6% – about as low as it’s ever been. And while the US government is only adding to its intimidating debts, Europe’s books are relatively in order: US debt is worth over 100% of the country’s economy, while Europe’s ratio is a much more conservative 83%.

Zooming out: Europe’s ready for winter.

Inflation has a habit of finding its second, third, or fourth wind, so Europe isn’t in the clear completely. That said, the region’s covered itself for winter – and not by buying a heated comforter. Europe has weaned itself off Russian gas: just 12% of the region’s imported gas was Russian last quarter, down from 40% before the war in Ukraine. That should make it less vulnerable to supply kinks and, in turn, price flare-ups – a major inflation catalyst. Europe’s gas storage tanks are fuller than the same time last year, too, which will buy it time if any unexpected events put a block on imports.

What’s going on here?

The latest Chinese economic data was underwhelming, so the government may need to stay late to work on a better solution.

What does this mean?

China’s economy is used to making the world jealous: the country overtook Italy, France, the UK, Germany and Japan’s economies between 2000 and 2010, and it’s held the silver spot behind the US ever since. So it’s understandable that after building up quite the reputation, the Chinese government is less than delighted about the economy’s current pause. November’s data showed that the manufacturing sector was even quieter than the month before, as tentative shoppers – conscious of the economy’s shaky ground – held back from ordering anything they didn’t actually need. And with the services sector also clocking in lower-than-expected numbers, the government may need to bring in more drastic measures to avoid being left red-faced on the world stage.

Why should I care?

For markets: If you can’t beat ‘em, deny ‘em.

China might not have solved its economic problems, but it can do the second-best thing: pretend they don’t exist. China International Capital – one of the country’s biggest investment banks – has warned its analysts against publishing negative outlooks for the Chinese economy. The bank’s workers have apparently also been asked not to flash their luxury lifestyles, rendering those logo-heavy sunglasses useless without the chance to grace social media.

The bigger picture: An Apple a day...

When China sneezes, you’d expect the rest of the world to catch a cold. But ditch the vitamin C: the US stock market seems immune so far. That’s partly because industrial and commodity firms that are most affected by the state of global economies only make up a small part of key indexes like the S&P 500 these days. But even big names that count China as a major market, like Apple, have held steady, mainly because the country’s wobble seems to be already accounted for in share prices.