Why Russia Could Win the Ukraine War Next November

While the war in Ukraine may have faded from American public consciousness — supplanted in large part by the Israel-Hamas war — the conflict on the ground hasn’t changed much in recent months, as Ukraine’s counteroffensive has fizzled out. An endless war of attrition would appear to favor Russia, whose sheer manpower gives it an advantage against a depleted Ukrainian army, and whose economy is primed for a long conflict. But Russia continues to have plenty of battlefield problems of its own and seems far from any significant breakthrough. The big question about the war at this point may be a political one. In both the United States and Europe, once-unshakeable support for the Ukraine war effort is looking notably shakier, with an enormous supplemental funding bill currently stalled in Congress. (On Monday, the White House warnedthat it was close to running out of available funds.) Counterinsurgency expert John Nagl, a former lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army, who is now a professor of war-fighting studies in the U.S. Army War College, believes that next year’s likely Biden-Trump rematch will be key. I spoke with him about best- and worst-case scenarios for Ukraine in 2024 and beyond. (Nagl made clear that his views on the war did not reflect those of the army, or the Department of Defense.)

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