Last night, Nikki Haley continued her streak of easily winning the Republican debate and wiping the stage with Ron DeSantis — the walking embodiment of an awkward encounter with an ex. Beating Ron DeSantis is not exactly impressive (Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie did it too), but it has led to another raft of stories about Haley’s “surge” to become the alternative to Trump.

The media was hoping for a competitive GOP primary to drive ratings and traffic next month. And the idea of a quasi-normal Republican like Haley getting the nomination can seem quite appealing. But it’s time to stop wish-casting and face the reality that Nikki Haley will not be the nominee. Here’s what the data says:...