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Morning Brew

The Ascent

Good morning. Office holiday party season has arrived, and our thoughts are with all the heads of HR who have to remind everyone that the events are not international waters where you can do anything without repercussions. Have fun and keep it classy.

Neal Freyman, Dave Lozo

MARKETS: YEAR-TO-DATE

Nasdaq

14,403.97

S&P

4,604.37

Dow

36,247.87

10-Year

4.230%

Bitcoin

$43,828.77

Spotify

$198.05

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 12:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: The S&P 500 heads into the week at its highest level of the year after Friday’s solid jobs report suggested that the Fed could be all clear for a “soft landing”—bringing inflation back to normal without sending the economy into a recession. The S&P and Dow have posted gains for six straight weeks, their longest streak since 2019.
 

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Next frontier in healthcare: Nervous system treatments are a ~$100b global market. Invest in Autonomix before their planned Nasdaq listing.

STARTUPS

Startup winter is upon us

Jon Snow being cold in the snow Game of Thrones/HBO via Giphy

Companies that hyped themselves as the “disruptors” are now self-destructing at the fastest rate in a decade.

SmileDirectClub is the latest casualty of what some have dubbed a startup Mass Extinction Event. The telehealth company that attempted to revolutionize traditional orthodontics announced on Friday that it was winding down operations less than three months after it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. At its peak, SmileDirectClub was valued at $8.9 billion and had raised $427 million as a private company before going public in 2019.

High-flying startups are dropping like flies

Here are just a few recent collapses, per the NYT:

  • WeWork, which raised over $11 billion as a private startup, went bankrupt earlier this fall.
  • Hopin, the virtual events startup that rode a Covid wave to a $7.6 billion valuation, sold its primary business units for $15 million.
  • The e-scooter company Bird, which became the fastest startup ever to land a $1 billion valuation, was delisted from the NYSE and is now worth $7 million. That’s less than a third of the $22 million its founder paid for a Miami mansion in 2021.

Overall, more than 3,200 private venture-backed US startups that have collectively raised $27.2 billion have gone out of business this year, according to the NYT and PitchBook.

What changed?

Interest rates, that’s what. With the Fed jacking up rates to a 22-year high, the cost of capital has become far more expensive, and investments that are less risky than writing a check to a 20-year-old Stanford dropout have gotten more attractive. This year has been particularly ugly, as startups that had been hanging on for dear life have not found investors willing to throw them a life raft.

It’s an abrupt end to the golden VC years fueled by low interest rates and the growth of the mobile internet: Investment in US startups jumped by 8x between 2012 and 2022 to $344 billion.

Zoom out: If you’re a founder looking to raise money in this tough environment, consider building a chatbot. As of August, more than 25% of all dollars invested in US startups this year went to AI companies, while funding of AI startups has more than doubled from 2022 to 2023, per Crunchbase.—NF

     

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WORLD

Tour de headlines

University of Pennsylvania President Liz Magill testifies during a House Education and Workforce Committee Hearing on holding campus leaders accountable and confronting antisemitism on Capitol Hill Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

UPenn president resigns. Liz Magill, the president of the University of Pennsylvania, resigned following withering criticism of her failure to unequivocally state that calling for the genocide of Jews would violate the school’s code of conduct at a congressional hearing on antisemitism last week. Scott Bok, the chairman of the university’s board of trustees and the CEO of investment firm Greenhill & Co., also stepped down from his role at Penn. Penn has faced a revolt from donors who accused it of letting antisemitism spread unchecked on campus, with one financier threatening to withdraw a $100 million donation. The other two university presidents who were also criticized for their testimony, Claudine Gay of Harvard and Sally Kornbluth of MIT, remain at their posts.

State Dept. will sell tank ammo to Israel. The State Department sidestepped Congress to approve the emergency sale of $106 million worth of tank ammunition to Israel, a sign of commitment to the US' ally amid growing international calls for a cease-fire in Gaza as the humanitarian crisis worsens. The sale comes as some Democratic lawmakers want US military assistance for Israel tied to certain conditions and President Biden’s $106 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and other national security interests stalls in Congress. Emergency arms sales are unusual but not unprecedented, according to the AP, which noted the $8.1 billion in weapons sold under an emergency determination to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan in 2019 during the war in Yemen.

Milei takes office in Argentina. Javier Milei was sworn into office as president of Argentina on Sunday. The far-right libertarian in the mold of former US President Trump has made cooling inflation his top priority, since price growth in Argentina ballooned as high as 142% in October, crushing purchasing power. Argentina’s markets have rallied since Milei won a runoff election three weeks ago, as he seems to be distancing himself from some of his more radical campaign promises, like replacing the peso with the US dollar. Getting anything done after his inauguration will be a challenge—his party holds just 39 of 257 seats in the lower house and seven of 72 in the Senate.

SPORTS

Shohei Ohtani gets $700 million to move 30 miles

Shohei Ohtani Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

Japanese MLB superstar and two-time MVP Shohei Ohtani will receive $700 million over the next 10 years from the Los Angeles Dodgers, the largest contract in the history of North American sports, and perhaps across global sports.

  • The contract’s value is nearly $275 million higher (64%) than baseball’s previous record contract and more than the 2023 Opening Day payroll of two teams.

Is he worth it? On the field, Ohtani dazzles with his ability to pitch and hit at an elite level that has drawn comparisons to Babe Ruth. But off the field, his superstardom in his native Japan also makes the Dodgers’ investment even more compelling.

  • Ohtani’s move to the Dodgers will have a ~$444 million economic impact next year, according to a report from professor Katsuhiro Miyamoto at Kansai University.
  • According to the same report, Japanese visitors coming to watch Ohtani in the US spent ~$8 million last year, while Japanese firms spent about the same amount to advertise at Angel Stadium, Ohtani’s home for the previous six seasons.

It’s a win for all teams. Revenue from international broadcast deals is split evenly between all 30 MLB owners. The 2023 regular season average ratings on NHK, the league’s primary rightsholder in Japan, were the highest since Ohtani joined the league, with four games drawing more viewers than this year’s Super Bowl.—DL

     

CALENDAR

The week ahead

John Kerry (L), U.S. special presidential envoy for climate, and Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, President of the COP28 UNFCCC Climate Conference, speak with one another John Kerry and Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Climate summit wraps up. COP28 comes to a conclusion on Tuesday with the role of fossil fuels in the spotlight. COP28 leaders released a draft containing five options for how to proceed with fossil fuels (what many consider the most important part of the summit), ranging from phasing them out to not addressing them at all. OPEC, the cartel of major oil-producing countries, caused an uproar when it wrote a letter urging its member states to reject any mention of a fossil-fuel phaseout in the final text of the agreement.

Funding for Ukraine hangs in the balance. A looming Christmas break deadline in the Senate at the end of this week is ratcheting up the pressure for lawmakers to reach a deal on an emergency aid package for Ukraine. Republicans insist on sweeping changes to US immigration policy in exchange for approving the $110.5 billion proposal, and President Biden told GOP leaders he is willing to discuss major concessions to curb access to asylum. In a sign of how critical these funds are to Ukraine’s war effort, Ukrainian President Zelensky will visit the White House on Tuesday to make his pitch.

Fed meeting: The final Fed meeting of the year will take place this week, and like most work meetings in mid-December, not a whole lot is going to happen. Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged as inflation continues its descent to a 2% target. But 2024 planning is in full swing, and investors are desperate to learn when the Fed thinks it will need to cut rates next year.

Everything else…

  • Taylor Swift turns 34 on Wednesday. Happy birthday to a pillar of the American economy.
  • The final four episodes of Netflix’s The Crown will drop Thursday.
  • Thursday is Free Shipping Day, a chance to shop at participating online stores and not pay a dime to ship your package, which will be guaranteed to arrive before Christmas.
  • Wonka, the film that provides the backstory to the titular character now played by Timothée Chalamet, hits theaters Friday.

TOGETHER WITH FIDELITY INVESTMENTS

Fidelity Investments

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GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

Alex Jones Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Quote: “The people have spoken and so it shall be.”

Elon Musk restored the X account of conspiracy theorist Alex Jones after putting his reinstatement to a vote on the platform and 70% of respondents saying yes. Jones, who was banned from then-Twitter in 2018, owes Sandy Hook families more than $1 billion after he repeatedly spread the false claim that the school shooting was a hoax. It’s unclear whether Musk consulted CEO Linda Yaccarino on the move as she tries to win back advertisers who’ve ditched the platform following reports their ads were showing up next to neo-Nazi content. To those advertisers, Musk has already said, “Go f*** yourself.”

Stat: A tomato mystery that had baffled the geniuses at NASA for eight months has finally been solved. Back in March, Frank Rubio grew the first tomato in space on the ISS, but when the tomato went missing, Rubio was accused of eating it. Rubio returned home in September (after spending a US record 371 days in space) and defended himself against the scurrilous allegations: “I wanted to find it mostly so I could prove like, ‘I did not eat the tomato,’” he said. Justice for Rubio came this week when the tomato was finally located, although the specifics as to where the fruit or vegetable was hiding are not known.

Read: A cultural critique of the Tesla Cybertruck. (Road & Track)

NEWS

What else is brewing

  • An investor group has reportedly launched a $5.8 billion bid to take Macy’s private.
  • The Texas Supreme Court temporarily blocked a ruling by a lower court that would have allowed a pregnant woman to obtain an emergency abortion. Her unborn baby has a fatal genetic condition.
  • The Boy and the Heron, the latest movie from Japanese anime legend Hayao Miyazaki, became the first original anime title to top the North American box office with a $12.8 million debut.
  • LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels won the Heisman Trophy, becoming the fifth QB in the last seven seasons to win the trophy after transferring schools.
  • The Lakers won the championship in the NBA’s first in-season tournament with LeBron James snagging MVP honors, adding to a pretty good sports weekend in Los Angeles.

RECS

Monday to-do list image

Listen…forever: Find your favorite song on Spotify and this app will generate a never-ending version of the song.

Serve and golly: A recipe for a snowy tennis cake that you will love-love.

Machine learning: Cleo Abram gets to know and competes against a Boston Dynamics robot.

Watch: Every episode of Friends played at the same time.

A fair point: Proposed legislation could disrupt the future of credit card points, such as cash back and travel rewards. Wanna speak out? Learn more with The Points Guy.*

Your perfect pour: What’s your vino vibe? We teamed up with Decoy to build a personality quiz that matches you with your perfect pairing. Take the quiz.*

*A message from our sponsor.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Turntable: Becoming elite at Turntable won’t earn you a $700m contract, but it can keep your mind sharp. Play it here.

Mountain trivia

It’s International Mountain Day (sure!), so let’s see if you can summit this hilly trivia.

We’ll give you a mountain that’s the highest peak in its country, and you have to name the country it’s located in.

  1. Denali
  2. Kilimanjaro
  3. K2
  4. Mont Blanc (two countries)
  5. Hvannadalshnúkur
  6. Mount Elbrus
  7. Aconcagua

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ANSWER

  1. United States
  2. Tanzania
  3. Pakistan
  4. Italy and France
  5. Iceland
  6. Russia
  7. Argentina

Word of the Day

Today’s Word of the Day is: scurrilous, meaning “making or spreading scandalous claims about someone with the intention of damaging their reputation.” Thanks to Scott from Culpeper, Virginia, for the suggestion.

Submit another Word of the Day here.

✷ A Note From Autonomix

This is a paid advertisement for Autonomix’s Regulation A+ Offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.autonomix.com

✳︎ A Note From Fidelity Investments

ETFs are subject to market fluctuation and the risks of their underlying investments. ETFs are subject to management fees and other expenses.

Before investing in any mutual fund or exchange-traded fund, you should consider its investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus, an offering circular, or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC, 900 Salem Street, Smithfield, RI 02917

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