Vox Sentences - The GOP primary, explained

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

Good afternoon,

Li Zhou here as your Sentences host for the first few editions of 2024. (And yes, we’ve officially made it to another presidential election year.) 

Here’s the agenda today:

UP FIRST: The GOP primary calendar, explained

CATCH UP: A big judicial decision in Israel

—Li Zhou, senior reporter

The GOP primary is underway

Jabin Botsford/Washington Post/Getty Images

After months of debates, stump speeches, and speculation, the first wave of Republican primary voters will head to the polls in less than two weeks. The Iowa caucuses, which take place on Monday, January 15, mark the first test of just how enduring former President Donald Trump’s hold on the party is and whether any of his rivals has even a glimmer of hope. 

Currently, Trump remains far ahead of the other candidates in national polling and early state polls. According to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, Trump has 61 percent Republican support nationally, putting him nearly 50 points ahead of his two closest competitors: former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Things are a bit closer in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina — three of the early states — though not by much. Per FiveThirtyEight, Trump is ahead by roughly 30 points in Iowa, approximately 20 points in New Hampshire, and about 30 points in South Carolina. (Nevada, the fourth early state, has seen less polling, so there isn’t yet a reliable average.) 

These primaries will reveal the degree of Trump’s dominance ahead of the general election and indicate how much support Haley or DeSantis have captured. All signs suggest it’s unlikely that either poses a real threat to the former president, but we won’t know for sure until the votes are cast.

Here’s a look at the upcoming primary calendar and what we’re watching in each state:

• Monday, January 15, Iowa caucuses: As the first contest, Iowa is known for setting the tone for the GOP primary, though a win here hasn’t always guaranteed the party’s nomination. Interestingly, Iowa is the only early state Trump did not win when he first ran in 2016: At the time, he came in a close second to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). This year, given how far ahead Trump is, it will be a major upset if anyone else is able to take the state. 
  
• Tuesday, January 23, New Hampshire primary: According to polls, New Hampshire appears to be the closest of the early states, with Haley trailing Trump there by about 20 points. As a result, the Granite State could be her best (and maybe final) chance to pick up any momentum.
  
• Thursday, February 8, Nevada caucuses: Due to the state Republican Party’s issues with a state law, Nevada will hold two nominating contests this year, with a primary taking place on February 6 and caucuses occurring on February 8. The state GOP has already said it will only use the outcome of the February 8 caucuses to allocate delegates, and that’s likely to benefit Trump. Haley will be the only major candidate on the primary ballot, while Trump and DeSantis chose to be on the caucus ballot. 
• Saturday, February 24, South Carolina primary: Things may already be fully wrapped up by this final early state, though if the race remains competitive, South Carolina could see a last-ditch attempt by Haley to pick up some delegates. As a former governor in the state, if she isn’t able to perform well here, it’s a sure indicator that her campaign doesn’t have a shot elsewhere either. 

The Israeli Supreme Court’s big decision

Menahem Kahana/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

As Israel continues its war in Gaza against Hamas, it’s also facing a major judicial decision that threatens to reopen domestic divides. 

Monday, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled 8-7 against a law that would have stripped the judiciary of significant powers. That law, which was approved by the Knesset last year and backed by embattled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, would have taken away the Supreme Court’s ability to deem government actions “unreasonable,” a legal standard similar to declaring a law “unconstitutional” in the US. 

The policy was viewed by critics as effectively removing a check on the executive branch that the judiciary helped provide, and its passage sparked months of protests in Israel. The Supreme Court’s decision has the potential to foster dissent in an Israeli government previously unified  in its response to the October 7 Hamas attack. 

• The cabinet guiding Israel’s war on Gaza is split on the ruling: Yoav Gallant, Israel’s defense minister, is among the top officials who have criticized Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul. Another member of the war cabinet who has protested these changes is Benny Gantz, the head of the opposition National Unity Party.
• The landmark judicial decision comes as Israel withdraws some troops in Gaza: On Monday, Israel announced that it is withdrawing thousands of troops from Gaza, where more than 22,000 Palestinians have been killed by its military incursion, per the Gaza Health Ministry. 
• The decision raises the scrutiny on Netanyahu: The prime minister has been the subject of domestic ire for his pursuit of these reforms, with some arguing that his focus on these policies distracted the government from anticipating the October 7 attack. Questions remain about whether Netanyahu will abide by the Court’s decision or attempt to move forward with the judicial reforms regardless of the ruling. 

Read more about the protests in response to Israel’s judicial reforms here.

• A plane crash in Japan. In Tokyo, a passenger plane collided with a coast guard plane delivering aid to those affected by the country’s recent earthquake. Those on the passenger plane escaped before it burst into flames, while five coast guard workers were killed. [AP] 
• A stabbing of a South Korean opposition leader. Lee Jae-myung, the head of South Korea’s Liberal Democratic Party, was attacked in Busan. Lee is recovering from surgery and the motives of the stabbing have yet to be disclosed. [NYT]
• Trump legal drama continues. Over the holiday break, Maine joined Colorado in removing Trump from the state’s Republican primary ballot. Trump is now set to appeal both of those decisions. [ABC]

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