Assassinations and escalations in the Middle East

Monday, January 8, 2024

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UP FIRST: An assassination in Lebanon

CATCH UP: Defense Secretary Austin's hospital scandal

—Ellen Ioanes, reporter

A Hezbollah commander's assassination in Lebanon escalates Middle East conflict 

Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty Images

On Monday, Wissam al-Tawil — a commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan unit — and an associate were killed in a strike in southern Lebanon. Israel has not taken credit for the strike, nor for one last week that killed a Hamas leader in the same region, but reporting by Reuters, the Associated Press, and others indicates the country was responsible for the attack that killed al-Tawil. Israel, for its part, admitted to an attack on a Hezbollah installation, and Hezbollah claimed it bombarded an Israeli observation post on Saturday. 

The attacks have only increased fears that Israel’s war in Gaza will broaden into a regional conflict involving not just Israel and Hamas, but each side’s allies and adversaries, from Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Shia militia group based in southern Lebanon, to the United States.

Israel and Hezbollah — who usually have some kind of tit-for-tat dynamic even without an active war — have been escalating attacks since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. But matters seemed to intensify after a Hamas leader was killed in Beirut last week, and after Hezbollah’s leader promised retaliation for that attack in a speech Wednesday.

“How can we avoid a larger regional war?” was a major question from the very beginning of Israel’s Gaza operation. Increasingly, paths to avoiding a wider conflict seem limited. 

Over the weekend, I reported on increasing attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels — like Hamas and Hezbollah, they are supported by Iran — against cargo ships in the Red Sea, despite a coalition led by the US military warning them to stop. And in Iraq, the US killed a leader of one of that country’s Iran-linked militias, causing the prime minister to announce his intention to push US coalition troops out of the country.

The combination of all of these events, as Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow in the American statecraft program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told me this weekend, shows that while we’re not yet in a regional war, dangerous escalation is already happening. 

“People think about escalation in the region as like a switch was flipped,” but escalation isn’t binary, Kavanagh said. “You actually see [regional escalation] happening already, which is just sort of a steady increase of violence, and tit-for-tat strikes get gradually more, and suddenly, you’re at [an] intolerable level.”

This week's provocations in the region suggest we’re getting close to that “intolerable” level.

Lloyd Austin's hospitalization scandal, explained

Alberto Pizzoli/AFP via Getty Images

Pentagon reporters raised the alarm last week that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has been in the hospital for days — and that the the president and other key members of the defense chain of command had no idea until recently. 

“I recognize I could have done a better job ensuring the public was appropriately informed. I commit to doing better,” Austin said in a Saturday statement. “But this is important to say: this was my medical procedure, and I take full responsibility for my decisions about disclosure.”

The lack of disclosure of Austin’s illness and hospitalization raised some key concerns:

• Austin was admitted to the intensive care unit at Walter Reed Army Medical Center on January 1, after undergoing elective surgery on December 22. Thus far, the Pentagon hasn’t disclosed what the original procedure was, or why Austin entered the hospital on New Year’s Day.
• The Pentagon kept Austin's hospitalization from President Joe Biden and other senior government officials for days. The National Security Council and the deputy secretary of defense weren’t notified of Austin’s hospitalization until January 4, apparently because his chief of  staff was sick and unable to notify other officials until then.
• While Austin resumed his duties Friday, the Pentagon hasn’t yet given a release date for him. Biden says Austin has his full confidence, but the hospitalization has raised questions about Austin’s ability to perform his duties. 
• This is not normal. Typically when Cabinet-level personnel, and even below, are hospitalized or otherwise incapacitated, the appropriate agency announces that information as soon as possible to ensure the government continues functioning as it should. 
• Austin is not known for being particularly receptive to the press; this incident could only deepen that division. 
• There are multiple ongoing national security and defense issues, not least of which is the US decision Thursday to assassinate a leader of an Iran-backed militia in Iraq. If Lloyd was incapacitated at the time, it’s not clear who made that decision. 

White House spokesperson John Kirby assured reporters that Austin would stay in his job. "The president respects the fact that Secretary Austin took ownership for the lack of transparency. He also respects the amazing job he's done,” Kirby told reporters. "There is no plan for anything other than for Secretary Austin to stay in the job."

• The Golden Globes came back — kind of. After a brief hiatus, the Hollywood awards ceremony aired last night, featuring new categories. [Vox]
  
• The International Court of Justice will hold hearings in South Africa’s genocide case against Israel. South Africa filed the complaint in late December, and has asked the court to demand an immediate ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza. [Reuters]
  
• UK elections are on track for this fall. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak this week indicated national elections will happen in the second half of the year; his Tory party is unlikely to maintain the leadership after years of scandal. [Guardian]

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