Morning Brew - ☕ Vibing

Americans are finally happy about the economy...
January 20, 2024 View Online | Sign Up | Shop

Morning Brew

Good morning. Why do so many Americans think they live in the Midwest when they don’t actually live in the Midwest?

According to data from Emerson College Polling and the Middle West Review…

  • More than 30% of people from Montana, 42% from Colorado, 54% from Wyoming, and 27% from Arkansas say they live in the Midwest.
  • Those people are wrong, says the US Census Bureau, which generally considers the Midwest to include 12 states: the Dakotas, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio.

This was inevitable after the Big Ten decided to accept Rutgers…

—Sam Klebanov, Matty Merritt, Molly Liebergall, Abby Rubenstein, Neal Freyman

MARKETS

Nasdaq

15,310.97

S&P

4,839.81

Dow

37,863.80

10-Year

4.146%

Bitcoin

$41,594.89

Spirit

$6.68

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Investors will probably go extra hard this weekend after the S&P 500 and the Dow finished yesterday at all-time highs. Soaring tech stocks helped the S&P blow past both intraday and closing records set in January 2022.
  • Stock spotlight: Spirit Airlines had a bumpy ride this week. After falling for days, the budget carrier took off yesterday when it raised its forecast and said it still believes in the deal for JetBlue to buy it that a judge has blocked. Spirit and JetBlue also filed an appeal to try to save the merger.
 

ECONOMY

Americans no longer hate the economy

We got vibes going on Peloton via Giphy

The Ministry of Economic Enthusiasm has proclaimed that the Great Vibecession is officially over. Okay, that’s not a real government body, but the economic vibes really have improved: US consumer sentiment just made its biggest two-month jump since 1991, the University of Michigan said yesterday.

The university’s consumer sentiment index offers a monthly snapshot of how Americans feel about their finances, business conditions, and what the future holds. And with the job market going strong and inflation on the decline, Americans haven’t felt this good about the economy since summer 2021…

  • In the first half of this month, the consumer sentiment reading jumped 13.1% from December, putting it 29% above where it was in November.
  • Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the coming year dropped to 2.9% from 3.1% in December, the lowest since late 2020.

Analysts say lower gas prices and mortgage rates and a stock market rebound helped boost the mood.

Vibes matter

Since consumer spending is such a large chunk of the US GDP, Americans’ gut feelings are closely watched by experts who consider them an important gauge of overall economic health. And they’re now more in line with the relatively strong economy on paper after months of headlines about how everyone still felt gloomy.

It’s possible no one wants to know how you feel about this more than the Fed. Inflation expectations factor majorly into the central bank’s interest rate decisions, and this month’s improved inflation outlook makes it more likely that they’ll start cutting soon.

Getting consumers smiling is also a big priority for the White House—especially since the president is running for reelection. The vast majority of Americans consider economic issues among their top concerns when voting, according to a recent Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey.

But don’t cue the confetti yet…consumer sentiment remains below pre-pandemic levels.—SK

     

FROM THE CREW

Meet your new favorite co-worker: artificial intelligence

The Crew

Join Marketing Brew for a half-day event focused on the endless possibilities AI offers. Industry leaders from Microsoft, Plus Company, GoCharlie.AI, and many more will share how they use AI in their day-to-day operations. Grab your ticket now before they’re gone!

WORLD

Tour de headlines

A Ford Lightning F-1 factory JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images

🛻 Ford cut production of its electric truck. Adjusting to lower-than-expected customer demand, Ford said yesterday it was scaling back the output for its all-electric F-150 Lightning and moving ~66% of the 2,100 workers from the factory that makes them to facilities that make gas-powered engines. It’s the latest automaker to hit the brakes on EV plans in the face of slow sales even as the government tries to nudge drivers toward them. Meanwhile, the CEO of rival automaker Stellantis cautioned against cutting EV prices too fast—which he said Tesla has already done—warning of an industry “bloodbath.”

Sports Illustrated’s future is unclear after mass layoffs. Most of the storied sports magazine’s staff was laid off yesterday. The terminations came after the Arena Group, which had been licensing the rights to publish SI from owner Authentic Brands Group, lost the license for failing to make a payment. As for what’s next, ABG put out a statement saying the SI brand would continue “to evolve and grow,” so . In other layoff news, Wayfair axed 13% of its workforce, or about 1,650 employees, in the wake of a viral memo from its CEO last month telling staff to work more and abnegate work-life balance. And Anna Wintour reportedly didn’t remove her trademark sunglasses while letting Pitchfork staffers go this week as Condé Nast merged the music publication with GQ.

Alec Baldwin indicted for involuntary manslaughter…again. A New Mexico grand jury indicted the actor over the fatal shooting of cinematographer Halyna Hutchins on the set of the movie Rust in 2021. This is prosecutors’ second attempt to hold the actor responsible for the shooting, which involved a gun Baldwin was rehearsing with that was not supposed to be loaded, after dropping earlier charges. Baldwin has publicly insisted that he did not pull the trigger, and his lawyers told news outlets, “We look forward to our day in court.” If convicted, the actor may face up to 18 months in prison.

APPLE

The Vision Pro is available for preorder, sans hype

The new Apple Vision Pro headset is displayed during the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference on June 05, 2023 in Cupertino, California. Apple CEO Tim Cook kicked off the annual WWDC23 developer conference with the announcement of the new Apple Vision Pro mixed reality headset. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Preorders opened for Apple’s newest wearable device, the Vision Pro, yesterday, and the world is preparing for another piece of smart tech that will look corny in wedding photos.

The $3,499+ headset is Apple’s first major product category launch since 2015, when it made everyone think they needed a watch that told them to stand up. But unlike when it debuted the Apple Watch, the company’s rollout of the Vision Pro has the vibe of “No worries if not!”:

  • There won’t be any official product launch events, and there’s a lot less hype from celebs.
  • Analysts only expect the company to sell about 400,000 units this year. In comparison, Apple sold 12 million (significantly cheaper) Apple Watches the year they were first offered.

Some third-party apps also seem pretty meh about it. Spotify, Netflix, and YouTube said they won’t be making apps specifically for the device as of its launch. However, Slack, TikTok, and Candy Crush will be available.

Still, consumers seem ready to strap it to their faces. Most stores offering the Vision Pro sold out for in-store pickup already, and the delivery date for online preorders has been pushed back from February 2 to at least March 8, suggesting they’ve been selling fast or don’t have enough to meet demand. And that’s despite the multistep buying process of having to scan your head and submit your vision prescription.—MM

     

FROM THE CREW

The Crew

The financial podcast you need. With The Money with Katie Show, finance bros are out and #RichGirls are in. This weekly podcast breaks down topics relevant to millennial money. You’ll walk with actionable insights to help you hit your financial goalsand learn about broader economic and cultural issues along the way.

RETAIL

Walmart managers can now make $128k

Walmart employee adjusts a sign Joe Raedle/Getty Images

In hopes of winning over workers in a competitive labor market, America’s largest one-stop-shop for tires and eggs is ramping up store managers’ average pay for the first time in more than a decade, the company told CNN.

Walmart announced this week that, effective February 1 in the US…

  • The average manager’s salary will get a 9% boost to $128k, while the low end of the range will jump from $65k to $90k. Their maximum bonuses will also increase from 150% of their base pay to 200%.
  • The retail chain, which employs 1.6 million people in the US, will raise frontline hourly workers’ average wages from $17.50 to $18.

Why the raise? It’s likely another attempt to boost retention, recruiting, and maybe—with unionization efforts happening at other big-box stores—employee satisfaction. Walmart job perks include healthcare and free college tuition, and the company already increased its minimum hourly pay by $2 to nearly double the federal minimum wage last year when the labor market was red-hot.

Hiring is still competitive, but…employers may be gaining back some leverage as the Fed’s parade of rate hikes starts to cool the labor market. Walmart also cut the starting hourly pay for new personal shoppers and shelf-stockers by $1 in the fall.—ML

     

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

Flags on the moon Illustration: Cameron Abbas, Photo: Getty Images

Stat: Japan’s lunar robot explorer, known by the perfect superhero nickname “Moon Sniper,” made it to the moon yesterday. That makes Japan the fifth nation to touch down there after the US, the Soviet Union (now Russia), China, and India. Like most snipers, it was going for precision aim: While most previous moon visitors have had ~10-kilometer-wide (six-mile-wide) landing zones, Moon Sniper was trying to hit a spot within just 100 meters (330 feet). But it might turn out to be more about the journey than the destination, since the lander ended up unexpectedly low on power and may have its mission cut short.

Quote: “The new edition does not include a ban on humor or pop culture references on changeable message signs.”

The Federal Highway Administration wants you to know it’s not totally humorless. The agency recently sparked disappointment from anyone who’s ever chuckled while on a road trip at a sign that read “I’m just a sign asking a driver to use turn signals” by discouraging states from using jokes or cultural nods in highway signs in its latest guidelines. But it clarified to the Washington Post yesterday that it didn’t intend an outright prohibition on being funny and was only seeking to rein in signs that “may confuse or distract drivers.”

Read: Last year’s best short-selling call came from a doctor with a blog named for a SpongeBob SquarePants character. (Bloomberg)

NEWS

What else is brewing

  • A Boeing 747 cargo plane had to make an emergency landing in Miami after flames were seen shooting out of it. Preliminary findings showed a “softball-sized hole” above one of its engines.
  • Home sales fell to their lowest since 1995 last year as high mortgage rates scared off buyers. But this year may be different: Mortgage demand spiked last week after rates fell some.
  • Microsoft said state-backed Russian hackers breached its email systems and entered accounts of executives and legal and cybersecurity staff.
  • Mark Zuckerberg is leaning into AI. The Meta CEO said his company will build its own artificial general intelligence—the kind that rivals human brains—and share it with developers.
  • A Uvalde grand jury will reportedly consider whether any law enforcement officers should face criminal charges over the response to the shooting at Robb Elementary School.
  • Prince Harry dropped his libel suit against the Daily Mail following a pretrial ruling that suggested it might not go his way. He’s still got other suits pending against British tabloids.

RECS

Saturday To-Do List graphic

From y’all to dudes: Where US accents and dialects come from.

Take a tour: The world inside a Gummi Bear factory.

Because you made it this far: Mocktail recipes to get you through the rest of Dry January.

Watch: The real (and fake) story of the invention of potato chips.

Level up: Join Miss Excel’s free 60-minute live workshop on Wednesday, Jan. 24, to learn shortcuts and Lookup functions that can save you hours each week.

Go clear: Get unparalleled clarity with hear.com’s IX hearing aids. These game-changing devices’ unique dual-processing technology doubles the power and conversation clarity. Try ’em risk-free for 45 days.*

*A message from our sponsor.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Brew crossword: Do you enjoy trivia? Get tickled by wordplay? Then solve our crossword.

Open House

Welcome to Open House, the only newsletter section that’s ready to open up the freakin’ pit. We’ll give you a few facts about a listing and you try to guess the price.

Pointy-roofed, 70s home in Buffalo, NY. The 9-acre property includes a home, deck, above-ground pool, and large workspace barn.Zillow

Today’s home is in Buffalo, NY, and is probably completely buried in snow right now. The 3,035-square-foot home in a hot housing market comes with nine acres of land and a funky little roof. Amenities include:

  • 4 beds, 3 baths
  • Living room conversation pit
  • Bonus workshop building

How much to live close enough to shovel Highmark’s field?

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ANSWER

$650,000

Word of the Day

Today’s Word of the Day is: abnegate, meaning “renounce or relinquish.” Thanks to Jan from San Antonio, Texas, for not denying us and sending a suggestion. Submit another Word of the Day here.

         
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