Finimize - 💸 BP's big buyback

What’s going on here?

China appeared to plan a major intervention to rediscover the stock market’s former glory, but the world’s second-biggest economy will need to learn from its mistakes.

What does this mean?

China’s president has some to-do list: remedy rising unemployment, sell more exports, fix the crumbling property market – not to mention taking a lunch break. But this week, the small issue of supporting the disastrous stock market landed on his desk, too. Stock market regulators have already emptied their bags of tricks to no avail, including stopping investors from betting against the market. So when word spread that the president was set to meet with regulators on Tuesday, many wondered whether the country might throw it back to 2015. Back then, the government bought shares in around 1,000 firms to make the lackluster market look a little more, well, lustrous.

Why should I care?

For markets: Déjà boo!

If that is China’s plan, it’s a risky one. Naturally, investors will cast an eye over any stock that’s suddenly pulling ahead – but they’ll quickly move their gaze to the company’s books. Potential investors will steer clear unless the firm’s profit and projections justify the new higher price, and existing investors may well sell their shares and pocket the profit. That’s why the thought of returning to 2015 could make many investors feel more nauseous than nostalgic: China’s market collapsed soon after the government poked its nose in, only reaching its lowest level in February 2016.

The bigger picture: You’re not guaranteed tomorrow.

Thing is, China’s stock market could take a turn for the worse no matter the government’s tactic. So for investors who still believe in the country’s long-term potential, or for those who just can’t resist a bargain, it’s tempting to hold out for even cheaper prices. That’s a precarious place to be, though: you can only see the market’s lowest point once it’s gone.

What’s going on here?

BP made like a magician on Tuesday, distracting investors from fumbled profit with a jazzed-up buyback schedule.

What does this mean?

Oil and gas are BP’s bread and butter, but major industries have been trying out the energy equivalents of sweet potato wraps and vegan spreads lately. So with barrels of oil left on the shelves and weighing on the slippery stuff’s price, BP made half as much profit last year as it did the year before. The oil giant made that up to investors, though, announcing that it’ll buy back $14 billion worth of stock – nearly 15% of the company’s total value – by the end of next year. That’ll massively reduce the number of shares out there, potentially increasing the value of the remaining ones. The prospect of souped-up stock prices seems to have won investors over, at least for now: BP’s shares picked up by 5% after the announcement.

Why should I care?

For markets: Snakes and ladders.

Businesses tend to buy their own stock when they’re feeling confident about the future. After all, they don’t want to spend money on a falling investment, either. But buybacks can be seen as an admission of defeat, indicating that a company has no better opportunities to spend its money on. Investors tend to see through those cases, eventually sending the stock right back to where it started, or worse.

The bigger picture: Hey, big spender.

BP has, up to now, had no shortage of expensive side projects. The British firm has been investing billions into clean energy initiatives, a bid to keep a seat at the table for decades to come. That’s a punt that will take years to pay off, and the firm’s traditionally minded shareholders seem to need some convincing in the meantime. They believe BP is spending too much too soon, a stark contrast to the slow-and-steady approach that US firms have been rewarded for taking.