SUPPLY CHAIN

Lockdowns Here Send Shockwaves Everywhere

While China’s factory activity hit an all-time low in February, numbers released yesterday showed the country’s manufacturing sector started growing again in March. For all of us asking, “When will this end?” it’s a light at the end of the tunnel.

A faint, flickering light—like the sign outside an old video store. 

China may be getting back to work, but the rest of the world is reading this in PJs. As major economies from the U.S. to India go into hibernation to slow the coronavirus pandemic, there’s very little interest in widgets made from Chinese assembly lines. 

• “The biggest problem facing China’s economy in the second quarter is the slumping foreign demand,” economist Nie Wen told Reuters.
• Orders for new Chinese exports, including steel, are being canceled as the world waits out the outbreak.

We’ve come full circle: A couple months ago, global supply chains were thrown into chaos when Chinese factories closed because of the coronavirus. Now that they’re back online, few companies are buying parts.   

The situation might be worse in Bangladesh

The South Asian country is a global hub for the garment industry—garment exports accounted for 84% of the country’s total exports last fiscal year. Now, as apparel retailers shut their doors to observe social distancing policies, the market for those goods has evaporated.

• The VP of a Bangladeshi trade association said all orders have been canceled or suspended until July. So far, that’s more than $3 billion lost. 
• Canceled orders will likely force more factories to close. The country’s 4,600 garment factories support more than 4.1 million jobs, and industry leaders think the government’s $588 million relief package won’t be enough to help those workers.

Bottom line: The coronavirus pandemic will cause a rethink of globalized supply chains, where right now a stay-at-home order in one country can affect millions of lives on the other side of the world.

WORKFORCE

Essential Workers Don't Feel So Essential

Walmart and Amazon were the No. 1 and 2 private U.S. employers before the pandemic and, with 250,000 open spots between them, will likely keep those titles. But being top purveyors of “essential” items is taking a toll on workers. 

Yesterday, Whole Foods employees organized a “sick out” to pressure Amazon into providing improved workplace safety, benefits like hazard pay, and more sick pay—one day after dozens of Amazon’s NYC workers walked out. 

The problem? Consumers are shopping like it’s Dec. 23, but instead of Baby Yoda plushies they want TP and Lysol. But some warehouses are reportedly operating with half staff, and many employees working in close conditions don't have access to masks or gloves. 

• Employees of at least 15 U.S. Amazon facilities have been quarantined or tested positive for COVID-19.

Hoping to avoid that, Walmart is taking additional steps to protect workers, including measuring temperatures before shifts and offering face masks. 

Big picture: Amazon workers have complained for years about harsh working conditions. With the pandemic, they’ve had more leverage to secure additional time off, paid sick leave, and higher wages. 

ECONOMY

We Like Our Recessions Like We Like Our Vendettas

The bad news: The global economy is headed for a recession, if we’re not in one already. 

The less bad news: Economists are still debating the trajectory of that recession. 

Best-case scenario: like our favorite necklines—shaped like a V.

• If coronavirus cases decline and health authorities allow businesses to reopen, cooped-up consumers could embark on a spending spree that catapults output back up. 
• Economists don’t think this is likely. 

Worst-case scenario: An L-shaped recession, where output plummets to the floor and stays there. 

• It brings us no joy to tell you, but this could happen. Scientists at Imperial College London said containment measures may be necessary for 18 months.

Medium-est case scenario: a “Nike swoosh”-shaped recession, to borrow Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi’s term. That means a sharp drop, followed by a bounce in Q3 and a plateau in Q4. Another possibility is a W shape like the U.S. experienced in the early 1980s, where the economy contracts, then recovers, then repeats. 

Bottom line: A W on this is actually a V. 

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TECH

Dark Skies Over Cupertino

Yesterday, Apple bought the popular weather app Dark Sky in an effort to contain the coronavirus a regular business transaction. 

Why Dark Sky caught Tim Cook’s eye: The $3.99 app employs hyperlocal weather data, so its forecasts are tailored for users’ specific locations rather than a general estimate for an entire zip code. 

• Apple's tight embrace means Google users are getting the boot. In July, Apple will shut down the Android version of the app. 

Dark Sky also said it will cut off new signups to its API service, a database of historical weather data and forecasts that outside developers can use for their own projects. Apple said it’ll keep the API alive for existing users, like the Carrot Weather app, until the end of 2021.

Looking ahead...Apple says there will be “no changes” to the Dark Sky app on iOS. The question is, what's in store for Apple's Weather app? 

INNOVATION

When Andy Won't Stop Zooming With His Real Friends

Allan from Montgomery

Thanks to Brew reader Allan who spotted this work of art and sent it along. For more goodies, follow us on Twitter. 

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

• Xerox is ending its hostile takeover bid for HP.
• Sony Pictures pushed back the majority of its 2020 movie slate to 2021.
• Headline of the week: “Liquor Brands Stir Up Support for a Shaken Bartending Community.”
• M&A deal volume hit a seven-year low in Q1.
• The Trump administration eased mileage standards for automakers put in place by the Obama administration to incentivize electric vehicle production.
• The NFL will stream some of its postseason games on NBCUniversal’s Peacock and...Nickelodeon. Not April Fools.

CALENDAR

Your Daily Quarantine Planner: April 1

Brew writer Alex Hickey won't tell you she has impeccable taste, but...she has impeccable taste. 

 Morning workout 

Time for a high school throwback. Blogilates is free and quick and has a decade’s worth of videos to choose from. 

 Events happening in cyberspace

• Today at noon ET, Politico’s Pulitzer Prize-winning cartoonist Matt Wuerker is running a free online workshop. 
• At 6pm ET, our Head of People Ops Kate Noel is going live on Instagram to answer all your HR questions during this crazy time.

 Work playlist

• Forget the four walls you’re stuck in with the soothing sounds of U.S. National Parks. 
• Cigarettes After Sex is great for chill and soothing background music. 
• TED’s excellent WorkLife podcast with business organization guru Adam Grant. Tune in here.

Lunch, but make it productive

Level up: There are hundreds of Ivy League courses you can take online for free, like Harvard’s class on the science of cooking or Yale's exploration of the moralities of everyday life. 

Do good: Resurfacing the Brew’s ways to help and donate to pandemic response efforts.

Stay up-to-date: Did you forget there’s an election happening? UVA politics Prof. Larry Sabato has a weekly newsletter, the Crystal Ball, that tracks all the races underway.

Dinner options

For something easy, pumpkin or butternut squash risotto is my chicken soup. For something fancy, Cornish game hens canzanese (you can easily swap the hens with chicken thighs and the currants for pomegranate). For dessert, these salted tahini chocolate chip cookies will get you through anything. 

Evening activity

• No screen: We started a book recommendation series, Brew’s Bookshelf. Pick one of the great options and start your own quarantine book club. 
• Screen: Work through the classics with these 100 movies to watch while you’re stuck inside. Also, The Great British Baking Show has all the heartwarming content and bread inspiration you need.

GUESS THE LOGO

Many brands have introduced special social distancing logos, because that's clearly going to help. Can you identify the company represented by this socially distant logo? 

Source: Can't tell you that here

GUESS THE LOGO ANSWER

Audi

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