Narciso Contreras/Anadolu via Getty Images

This weekend will mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

And while Ukraine’s resistance has undoubtedly outperformed expectations — at the outset of the conflict, many expected Kyiv to fall in days — it’s clear that the war is not going well for Ukraine now. 

The latest setback came over the weekend, when Russian forces took the small eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, ending a brutal battle that has been raging since October and giving Russia its most significant breakthrough since taking the city of Bakhmut nine months ago. But as with that previous breakthrough, the victory came at a heavy cost — likely tens of thousands of Russian soldiers killed or injured. 

In both Bakhmut and Avdiivka, the Russians demonstrated that with enough time, artillery ammunition, and human lives, they can take a small Ukrainian city, almost entirely demolishing it in the process. Is this really a sustainable strategy for victory over the second-largest country, in terms of land area, in Europe? 

“I do not think it's sustainable, but it is what I think that they'll do,” retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe, told Vox. 

So what does the fall of one eastern Ukrainian city tell us about the shape the war is likely to take in the months to come?

Arguably, the battle of Avdiivka was lost as much on Capitol Hill as it was in the fields surrounding the city itself.

Experts have been warning for months that unless the US Congress allocates new military aid to Ukraine — the last aid package was sent in December — Ukraine would start to lose the ability to defend the 1,500-kilometer frontline. 

The biggest problem is artillery ammunition: Last summer, Ukraine was firing more artillery shells than Russia per month. Now with supply shortages, it is firing less than a fifth of what the Russians can put out, according to Britain’s Royal United Services Institute. 

“The loss of Avdiivka is the result of a significant reduction in Western military assistance and a shortage of ammunition,” said Yehor Cherniev, a member of the Ukrainian Parliament and deputy chair of its national security committee. “If you don’t have shells, then courage alone will not be enough to win.” 

But ammunition is not the only factor. Ukraine’s forces also face significant manpower shortages, and the government has been reluctant to pass controversial legislation that would expand conscription and crack down on draft dodging.  

“They have failed to make the necessary political decisions to do this,” said Hodges. “I think not only is that a problem for them on the battlefield, but it also will begin to undermine some Western support.” In other words, foreign governments may be reluctant to continue to equip Ukraine if they don’t believe Ukrainians are willing to fight. 

3rd Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images

In the short term, Ukraine’s challenge will be to prevent the Russians from pushing any further. In recent days, the Russians have been concentrating forces for what appears to be an attempt to retake territory around the southern city of Robotyne, one of the rare successes of Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive. 

Franz-Stefan Gady, an analyst with the Center for a New American Security, said it’s likely there could be “more tactical withdrawals in the coming weeks,” as Ukrainian commanders work to stabilize the situation. He saw a complete collapse of the front line as unlikely but not out of the question.

“With no US aid in [the] next four to five months, Ukraine’s ability to keep a continuous frontline while arresting [Russian] advances will be limited,” said Mykola Bielieskov , an analyst with the Kyiv-based National Institute for Strategic Studies.

Assuming nothing goes disastrously wrong in the next few weeks, 2024 is likely to be a rebuilding year for Ukraine.

European ammunition production is finally starting to ramp up, though at a much slower rate than Ukrainians hoped last year. The US reportedly has artillery systems and ammunition ready to send to Ukraine immediately if and when Congress approves funding, and is also leaning toward supplying long-range ATACMS missiles, which it has so far declined to send, and which the Ukrainians say will give them a better ability to disrupt Russian supplies and logistics. 

As bleak as the picture has often been on land in recent months, the Ukrainians have been having better luck on the Black Sea, where the bulk of the Russian fleet has been pushed back by Ukrainian missile and drone strikes, and where grain exports by ship back to near prewar levels.

But this is ultimately a war over territory that comes down to Ukraine’s ability to defend it. 

It’s clear that this will be a much longer war, and a contest of industrial capacity and political will as much as military maneuvers, but even getting to that marathon will require Ukraine getting past a very difficult period in the coming months. 

—Joshua Keating, senior correspondent

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