When Trump sides with Putin over NATO or cynically torpedoes a bipartisan border deal to help his campaign, highly partisan political junkies like me (and probably you) get very worked up. However, most people pay little to no attention to the daily ins and outs of the campaign. They are either blithely unaware or dismissive of politics more broadly. Most voters feel disconnected from politics, politicians, and the government. This is why things that should be huge, disqualifying events often have so little impact.

What breaks through and captures the imagination of the broader, politically disengaged public are the things that directly affect people’s lives. The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade may be the most consequential political event in decades. One day, people had a constitutional right, and the next day, they didn’t. Similarly, efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act have been so politically damaging because they aim to take away something personal and necessary.

And this is why the Alabama Supreme Court decision that essentially banned in vitro fertilization could be a huge issue in the 2024 campaign. Anecdotally, people who rarely post about politics on social media have reacted to the decision with outrage. I received questions about it from friends and family who don’t follow politics super closely.

Some have dismissed this Alabama ruling as a narrow one in a very Republican state with a history of this kind of stuff. But the court cases that led to the overturning of Roe also started as the picayune causes of far-right extremists working at the state level. Even though Republicans aim to distance themselves from the ban on IVF, the threat is real — especially given the report earlier this week that allies to Trump are planning a sophisticated effort to implement a Christian Nationalist agenda. If Trump wins in November — no matter what he says now — the Republicans will try to implement a national ban on IVF. Here’s why.

Here’s why:

Terrible Politics for the GOP

Within days of the Alabama decision, at least three providers in the state stopped offering IVF. The politics of this decision are abjectly terrible.

This one hits home for many people. Unlike much of what happens in politics, many people have used IVF, contemplated using it, or know someone who used it. According to research from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD), about one in ten American women and 15% of heterosexual couples deal with infertility. In a 2023 Pew Research poll, 42% of Americans say they or someone they know has used fertility treatments...