Good morning! India’s GDP grew by 8.4% in the last quarter of 2023, beating analysts’ and economists’ forecasts. Read between the lines though, and you notice the divergence between GDP and GVA (gross value added), and feeble consumption growth. On a related note, household savings are shrinking, perhaps since stable employment is increasingly hard to find. Today’s story is about the last. Economic growth matters little when people are going to the extent of seeking jobs in conflict zones because there are few at home. What can we do to fix this? Read on to find out. Bonus: our picks of the week’s best longreads.

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Santosh Mehrotra 

Israel plans to bring in 70,000 workers from abroad, including 10,000 from India, to boost its construction sector. A labour shortage has emerged after 80,000 Palestinian workers were barred from entering the country after the October 7 Hamas-led attacks.

Figures suggest that India is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Between July and September of 2023, it grew at a pace of 7.6%. If it continues along this current growth trajectory, India will become the world’s third-largest economy by 2027.

The fact that thousands of Indian workers are nonetheless queuing up to secure a job in a conflict zone abroad is a consequence of a jobs crisis at home. Despite the country’s apparent economic growth, many Indians – even those with a university degree – are struggling to secure stable employment.

Casual work makes up 25% of the workforce, while only 23% of workers are paid a regular salary. The remainder are self-employed, and quite vulnerable to irregular and insecure income too.

But India has a large working-age population (people between 15 and 64 years of age), so the demand for jobs is immense. India needs to create an estimated 10 million to 12 million jobs each year for the unemployed, new workforce entrants, and surplus agricultural workers to be able to secure non-farm work.

How can India provide jobs for its increasingly educated young? It needs even faster economic growth and for this growth to be labour intensive. This will, in turn, generate demand in the economy from all sections of society (not just the middle class and above).

Structural change

Between 2004 and 2014, India’s economy grew at a rate of nearly 8% per year (despite the global financial crisis in 2008). This rapid growth was accompanied by a hastening of structural change in employment.

During that period, the economy created on average 7.5 million new non-farm jobs every year. The number of manufacturing jobs in India rose from 53 million in 2004 to 60 million by 2012.

However, ₹500 ($6) and ₹1,000 ($12) notes were taken out of circulation in 2016, making 86% of India’s currency illegal. The cash recall was intended to accelerate the country’s transition towards a formal economy. But it led to acute shortages of cash, destroying jobs in the construction and manufacturing sectors.

Growth slowed to 2020 when, at the beginning of the COVID pandemic, the Indian government imposed a nationwide lockdown at four hours’ notice. The lockdown caused India’s gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 5.8% – more than twice the rate at which the global economy shrank.

Employment in manufacturing jobs fell again, especially in labour-intensive manufacturing where employment had already been in decline for five years following the botched implementation of demonetisation. Around 60 million workers returned to jobs in agriculture, reversing the structural change in employment that had been underway for 15 years.

To take advantage of its bulging working-age population, India needs to create more non-farm jobs. In his new book, Breaking the Mould, the former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Raghuram Rajan, says that India needs to focus on exports of services, drawing on the country’s new digital infrastructure and IT-based services growth for the domestic (and export) market.

But a focus on services alone will not suffice. This “New India” economy currently constitutes less than 15% of the country’s economy and a fraction of that in employment. Such a strategy will generate jobs mainly for highly skilled people, rather than the millions of Indian workers that are searching for non-farm jobs.

What India needs is a manufacturing strategy akin to China’s that focuses on labour-intensive manufacturing. China has pursued an industrial policy since the 1950s, which has become even more evolved since the 1980s, helping the country establish dominance in global high-tech manufacturing.

Creating jobs in India

In India, the demand for jobs will only be met if several different factors come together. Construction activity needs to continue at its current brisk pace. But, for the next year or two, it must be led by public sector investment as private investment remains sluggish.

India’s investment-to-GDP ratio is still below 30%, and has remained below the 31% inherited by the current government when it came to power ten years ago. The potential for a twofold increase in construction employment (a trend that was observed between 2004 and 2012) over the next five years hinges on the revival of private investment.

Labour-intensive manufacturing by micro, small, and medium enterprises also needs a sustained fillip. The government’s focus is currently on large companies – so-called “national champions” like industrial conglomerates Tata and Mahindra – which are being encouraged through subsidies.

If these subsidies were instead redirected towards smaller enterprises, they might do more for employment generation. Large corporations typically use highly capital-intensive methods of production, whereas smaller ones tend to absorb more labour. Historically, it is the latter that has generated most of the non-farm jobs in developing countries.

The third area where employment can be generated is, indeed, services. Public expenditure should prioritise public health, education, vocational training and universities.

These sectors are labour-intensive, contribute to the creation of public goods, and will build the human capital needed by both manufacturing and modern export-oriented services. That is the only way India’s health and education services can reach the levels observed in east Asia and attract more foreign investment.

A renewed focus on smaller enterprises across these sectors is needed. Inclusive growth requires providing jobs rapidly at the bottom of the pyramid, not only at the top of the wage – and skill – distribution.

Santosh Mehrotra is Visiting Professor at the Centre for Development Studies, University of Bath.

This article is republished from https://theconversation.com under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article at https://theconversation.com/indians-are-fleeing-their-growing-economy-to-work-abroad-even-in-conflict-zones-heres-how-to-create-more-jobs-at-home-222092 

ICYMI

Skin in the game: You may not be a gamer, but chances are you’ve heard of Counter-Strike if you’ve ever owned a PC. One of the most famous first-person multiplayer shooter games of all time, its offshoot CS:GO (short for Counter-Strike: Global Offensive) alone has been downloaded by an estimated 205 million people since 2012. Counter-Strike’s developer-publisher Valve accounts for 50-70% of all PC game downloads. It also owns Steam, which distributes Valve and third-party games and hosts a thriving user-generated forum. Consider the scale of it all when you read this Barron’s investigation into Counter-Strike’s skin gambling economy. Highly-prized in-game items, such as cosmetic changes to weapons, are converted into digital currency on gambling sites. Game streamers on Twitch and YouTube sponsored by such skin gambling sites are reeling in underage players, and worse, Barron’s found that Valve was pulled up in 2016 for not addressing this menace… only to have seemingly gotten away with less than a rap on the knuckles.

Testing times: When students had no test centres to take the SAT in, colleges in the US began waiving the requirement or at least, making it optional. Now, four years later, they’re finding it hard to close the proverbial Pandora's box. Prestigious American colleges are unsure whether to continue keeping SAT scores—a long-standing requirement—or reinstate it. This story in Intelligencer explores the impact of going test-optional on both students and colleges. The SAT has been fraught with controversies as studies increasingly show a higher score is correlated with being rich and racially privileged than with intelligence. Universities that don’t require the test are using the ambiguity to admit students who tend to score less on standardised tests, such as people of colour and students from poorer homes. They’re also earning more as students, unsure whether they’ll get admitted to the college of their choice, apply to many more places. However, some top colleges are concerned that admitting students who don’t disclose their scores (assuming they were low) will be unable to keep up with their rigorous coursework. At the heart of it is an age-old debate raging in the US and in India: do tests reflect merit or privilege? 

How David Zaslav survived Avada Kedavra: If you’re a fan of Harry Potter, you’ll know the story of The Boy Who Lived starts with him surviving the killing curse Avada Kedavra as a baby. Yet, the Harry Potter franchise and its creator, author JK Rowling, came dangerously close to squandering their place in literary history. Rowling’s contracts have allowed her tight control over how her characters are used, ensuring Warner Bros Discovery cannot churn out Harry Potter adaptations in the manner of Marvel or DC. But Rowling has very nearly killed her own standing with her young fan base worldwide with her staunch opposition to the rights of trans women, who she says cannot be the same as ‘real’ (read: cisgendered) women. But business > politics, which is why Warner Bros. Discovery boss David Zaslav spent months flying to the UK to placate the author. This story in The Wall Street Journal traces the history of Harry Potter from the 1990s, when Warner Bros first acquired it, to today, as the studio tries to loosen Rowling’s control and create a new TV series on the original books costing hundreds of millions of dollars for the streaming service Max. This is a story of how the studio, the author, and The Boy, survived the business equivalent of the killing curse.  

Moving targets: You know about the digital ad industrial complex. But do you know about its scale? If you don’t, here’s a mind-boggling explainer in WIRED, detailed through the profile of one man: Mike Yeagley. A defence contractor with a background in location data scouting, Yeagley worked with companies such as PlaceIQ and PlanetRisk. The former has the CIA as an investor. The US intelligence agency has a venture capital arm called In-Q-Tel that pours money into “social media monitoring services”. And geolocation-based ad data is a big part of it. Every individual who uses a smartphone has an anonymised advertising ID that’s bidden for on ad exchanges. One data broking company, UberMedia, collected 200,000 bid requests per second on mobiles worldwide at its peak. But such data isn’t just used by advertisers. It’s purchased by federal agencies to spy on refugees, inner circles of heads of state, and people like you and us in a giant effort called ADINT, or ad intelligence.

Solitary on Mars: “A human mission to a planet so distant that a cry for help would have to travel through the solar system for 22 minutes before it was heard.” That takes some time to sink in. It’s not easy to fathom the isolation that a human would face far away from Earth. Even on terra firma, humans devised isolation as a method of torture precisely because of what it can do to the psyche. Mars Dune Alpha is a Mars habitat Nasa built in a warehouse at the Johnson Space Center in Houston to study the psychological effects of isolation. Under the project called CHAPEA (Crew Health and Performance Exploration Analog) for slightly more than a year, four people would live as if they were on the red planet, complete with astronaut food, experiments, surveys and innumerable directions from mission control. All that is in preparation for human landing on Mars, which Nasa expects would be no later than 2040. This story in The New York Times Magazine is about keeping sane in isolation and monotony for months and maybe years. 

No country for women: An ageing South Korea has been trying to get its citizens to have babies. The country has the lowest—and falling—birth rate in the world. If it continues, its population will halve by the turn of the century. Korea has spent $286 billion in the past 20 years trying to incentivise couples to have babies. It pays cash, subsidised housing, cab services, and even exemption from conscription for young dads of three children. Throwing money has not helped because the underlying cause is women do not want to have children. In fact, no one consulted them in the first place. Korea’s work culture and social norms, as in many other countries, treat women and men differently. Women end up working and taking care of home and family with barely any help from their partners. It is pushing women to stay single and find everyday contentment, if not happiness, in workplace success. This BBC story paints a stark picture of a broken society.