Morning Brew - ☕️ Slow but steady

When can we restart the economy?
April 08, 2020 Read in Browser

Daily Brew

The Motley Fool

Good morning and Happy Passover. When we first watched videos of Europeans clapping on their balconies for healthcare workers, it seemed like a nice gesture...but we didn’t really think much of it.

Now, every day at 7pm New Yorkers are throwing open their windows, breaking out the pots and pans, and saluting medical professionals for their lifesaving work. It’s extremely powerful.

And now we know our wok is tuned to a B-flat. 

MARKETS

NASDAQ

7,887.26

- 0.33%

S&P

2,659.41

- 0.16%

DJIA

22,653.86

- 0.12%

GOLD

1,681.50

- 0.73%

10-YR

0.730%

+ 5.20 bps

OIL

24.39

- 6.48%

*As of market close

  • Stimulus: PPP, or Paycheck Protection Program when it gets in trouble with the parents, could be expanding. The Treasury Department requested an additional $250 billion for the small business loan initiative, citing high demand.
  • U.S. markets: Stocks were up the equivalent of 28–3 most of the day but lost all of those gains before the close. U.S. crude prices nosedived more than 9%.

ECONOMY

World Leaders Sick of Working in PJs

Economy restart

Francis Scialabba

In the middle of a global public health crisis, a leader’s No. 1 goal is to stop the spread of the disease. But as grisly economic numbers stack up and new data indicates infection rates may be leveling off, some governments are also looking for ways to safely restart the economic car. 

  • Keep in mind, this is like starting a 12-year-old Jag—you have to be very, very careful. 

First, in the U.S. 

On Saturday, President Trump said he may convene a second coronavirus task force that focuses on how to restart the economy. Then yesterday, top economic advisor Larry Kudlow told Politico the administration may reopen the economy in the next four to eight weeks. 

  • On Fox News, Kudlow pointed to New York, the U.S. epicenter, where some numbers show the outbreak may be turning a corner.  
  • New deaths in the state had their largest single-day increase yesterday. But infection rates and hospitalizations are hovering around the same level.

Hoping to leave his PowerPoint days behind, Gov. Andrew Cuomo has gathered a group of confidants who are reportedly consulting with medical and economic experts to determine how to get New York's rusty gears turning again. 

Across the Atlantic 

Some Vitamin D-deprived governments in Europe are already cracking the door open. 

Western Europe's biggest petroleum-producing nation, Norway, will reopen schools and universities on April 27. Service businesses that require personal contact will resume gradually. 

  • Norway reacted to the threat of coronavirus early on, and got results. Its new infection rate peaked at 425/day, and that’s been wrestled down to just over 100.

Across the North Sea, Germany is planning a slow economic revival that would work in tandem with measures to keep the virus from spreading. 

Bottom line: All of this hinges on one key variable: widely available testing, which the U.S. is still behind on. As they get people back to work, governments need the ability to ensure it’s the economy that gets restarted, not the outbreak.

+ While we're here: Wuhan, the Chinese city where the coronavirus originated, is now officially out of lockdown

        

REAL ESTATE

SoftBank-WeWork Is the New Wilder-Fury

Fury-Wilder getting in each other's grills

Giphy

A special committee of the WeWork board is suing SoftBank for backing out of its agreement to buy up to $3 billion of WeWork stock. 

The backstory: It feels like the 1830s, but in fact it was just last October when SoftBank swooped in to rescue WeWork after its spectacularly botched IPO attempt. As part of a larger rescue package, the Japanese conglomerate pledged to buy up to $3 billion in stock from existing employees and investors—including former CEO Adam Neumann. 

But SoftBank did not follow through on that pledge, claiming last week that WeWork failed to meet five conditions the deal was premised on. Board rumblings of legal retaliation followed soon after.

Looking ahead...WeWork’s in a tough spot. Its short-term lease system means tenants can walk away at the drop of a tequila shot. And as the coronavirus strikes the economy, thousands reportedly are, by withholding rent or ending leases.

        

HEALTHCARE

Trust Me, I'm Not a Doctor

Here's a tongue twister: Say "hydroxychloroquine" three times. 

Now a brain twister: President Trump and other high-ranking U.S. officials are encouraging doctors to use the anti-malaria drug to treat patients with COVID-19...despite warnings from medical leaders. 

The drug reportedly hit the president's radar several weeks ago after a Fox News segment detailed its effectiveness in a French trial. Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison and Rudy Giuliani both pushed the president to advocate for hydroxychloroquine, and Giuliani has aggressively championed the drug. 

Many are skeptical. Infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci said it's only supported by anecdotal findings. The American Medical Association’s president said she wouldn't prescribe it over concerns of severe side effects.

The sudden spike in demand is raising supply concerns, especially among patients who take it for autoimmune conditions like lupus and arthritis. Yesterday, India eased a ban on foreign exports of the drug after President Trump threatened to retaliate. 

Looking ahead…some doctors are already prescribing COVID-19 patients hydroxychloroquine after the FDA authorized emergency use of the drug last week. Desperate for anything to reduce America's 380,000+ cases, Trump mused Sunday, "What do you have to lose?"

        

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JOBS

Stats That Make You Go "Wow"

Dr Phil making a face

Giphy

The coronavirus crisis will eliminate 6.7% of working hours globally this quarter, the UN's International Labour Organization (ILO) projects. That’s equivalent to 195 million full-time workers.

Go behind the numbers:

  • Working hour losses in upper-middle income countries will top the effects of the 2008 financial crisis.
  • 81% of the global workforce is currently affected by full or partial workplace closures.
  • The most at-risk sectors: Accommodation and food services, retail, manufacturing, and business and administrative services.

We realize we just leveled a sledgehammer of bad news. Let’s finish this off with ILO Director-General Guy Ryder doing his best Coach Brooks: “The choices we make today will directly affect the way this crisis unfolds and so the lives of billions of people...with the right measures we can limit its impact and the scars it leaves.” 

Bottom line: “This is the greatest test for international cooperation in more than 75 years,” Ryder said.

        

SOCIAL MEDIA

Social Network for Two, Please

FB's Tuned app

Tuned

We thought Snapchat began with raunchy intentions, but yesterday Facebook said “hold my eggplant emoji” and quietly launched Tuned, a messaging app for couples to privately send each other messages, music, photos, and moods. 

The app, available in the U.S. and Canada, was a project of the New Product Experimentation team Facebook cobbled together to professionally throw spaghetti at a wall. In less than a year, NPE has released apps including a chat platform to help users make friends, social music listening, a meme-maker, and a dating service for students. 

  • Last fall, Facebook proper also launched a dating service. Tuned comes just in time for the wave of new FB official couples in long-social-distance relationships. 
  • It also syncs with the company's plans to strengthen user connections with close friends and family. 

Zoom out: While Facebook is branding the new app as "a private space" for couples, like the company's main platform Tuned allows for the collection of behavior and communication data to inform ad targeting.

        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • President Trump removed the Pentagon's acting inspector general, who had been selected to oversee the disbursement of the $2.2 trillion relief package.
  • Exxon Mobil is cutting 30% of its planned capital spending this year.
  • Lufthansa will shut down its Germanwings budget airline as part of a major restructuring. Global demand could take "years" to reach pre-crisis levels, it said.
  • Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey is donating his $1 billion worth of equity in Square (which he also leads) to COVID-19 relief. He said the stake represents 28% of his total wealth.
  • English soccer leagues warned that coronavirus-related losses could top $1 billion.
  • Walgreens is opening 15 drive-thru coronavirus testing locations across seven U.S. states.

BREW'S BETS

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  • Just for fun: The most popular Uber Eats orders during this pandemic, by state, are...
    • New York: Jerk chicken
    • California: Chicken tikka masala
    • Maine: Cheese pazzo bread
    • Kentucky: Pad Thai 

*This is sponsored advertising content

FROM THE CREW

Elbow Bump of the Day

Every day, we are highlighting a different group of essential workers who form the glue holding everything together. Today, we want to show appreciation for the grocery store employees who make sure the shelves are stocked despite dealing with customers who may be a little stressed out.

Thank you for all that you do.

THREE COMMA TRIVIA

In Forbes’s new ranking of global billionaires, six of the top 15 billionaires are founders or cofounders of large tech companies. Can you name the six people and the companies they started?

PSA

A few weeks ago we wrote the headline “Add @Steve-Mnuchin-7 on Venmo Now” in this newsletter and published an accompanying Instagram post as a joke in reference to the federal government handing out direct payments as part of its stimulus package. We have been informed that a now-deactivated Venmo account was created using that username and the Morning Brew name and logo. It apparently charged accounts for “Coronavirus donations” as part of a fraud scheme. 

We were completely unaware this account was created and want to make sure our readers know this was not a Morning Brew account or donation drive of any kind. Thanks for understanding.

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THREE COMMA ANSWERS

1. Jeff Bezos—Amazon
2. Bill Gates—Microsoft
5. Larry Ellison—Oracle 
7. Mark Zuckerberg—Facebook
13. Larry Page—Google
14. Sergey Brin—Google

Steve Ballmer checks in at #11 but he was the CEO, not founder, of Microsoft. 

              

Written by Jamie Wilde, Alex Hickey, Eliza Carter, and Neal Freyman

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