Finimize - 🇺🇸 US jobs get worse and worse

Today's big stories

A meeting between the world’s major oil producers about curbing production might not have the desired effect on the oil price
Our analysts look into a fund that made a 4,144% return last quarter, as well as a few long-term strategies you might prefer – Read Now
Fresh US unemployment data and the Federal Reserve’s new loan program suggest the country isn’t past the worst of its coronavirus disruptions

1/3

Swing And A Miss

What’s Going On Here?

The world’s biggest oil-producing nations met on Thursday to discuss lowering their output before G20 oil ministers do the same on Friday – but all of them seem to be struggling to keep their eyes on the ball.

What Does This Mean?

Thursday’s meeting was a long time coming: Russia and Saudi Arabia have been embroiled (nailed it) in a price war for a few weeks now, producing more oil than anyone needed. So with supply massively outweighing demand, the slippery elixir’s price took a tumble. And when the oil price is this low, several oil-producing countries spend more money extracting it than they make selling it – which puts pressure on their national budgets.

The mooted agreement between the 14-nation coalition known as OPEC and its allies like Russia – collectively called OPEC+ – would strike a better balance between supply and demand, and that might push oil’s price up. That is, as long as everyone keeps up their end of the bargain – which hasn’t always been the case...

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Free shrugs.
Cynical investors aren’t all that fussed whether a deal’s actually ratified given that oil’s price already jumped up last week and again on Thursday. Likewise, oil companies’ stocks have been the US’s best performing this month after early reports of an agreement. That suggests the deal's already “priced in”, even if there are no production cuts until May. Those same investors might also question whether – with demand cratering alongside the global economic outlook – any agreed-upon cuts would actually boost oil’s price.

For you personally: Plastic fantastic.
Economists have cautioned that the unprecedented economic support from the world’s central banks and governments could eventually cause too-high inflation, but that might not happen if the oil price stays low. Oil’s a key constituent of plastic, which means you might see the lower production costs reflected in the lower prices of everything from sneakers to toys. That would, in turn, help keep a lid on overall price hikes.

Spot opportunity: How to profit from oil’s price moves via the stock market.

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2/3 Premium

Where To Invest, Part 1

Investors are still taking stock of a wild start to 2020. But with some big winners emerging from the carnage – including the fund that enjoyed a 4,144% return – thoughts are turning to where long-term opportunities may lie in the second quarter of the year.

Get the full story in the Finimize app

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3/3

Job Nopening

What’s Going On Here?

Hard worker? Fast learner? Team player? Join the club: even more Americans newly filed for unemployment last week according to data out on Thursday, while the Federal Reserve (the Fed) announced even more economic support.

What Does This Mean?

Economists were, in hindsight, too optimistic: they predicted 5.25 million new people would file for unemployment benefits last week compared to the 6.6 million who actually did. The number of unemployed has risen rapidly ever since the coronavirus pandemic struck American shores: it jumped from almost 300,000 – a two-and-a-half-year high at the time – to a then-historic 3 million and, last week, to a record-shattering near-7 million.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: On the pulse.
Jobless claims reports are different from typical economic data in that they give a picture of the here and now rather than the been and gone. Economists, then, have been able to use them to estimate the current rate of unemployment at around 13-14%, with some 17 million people losing their jobs since the pandemic-induced shutdown began (tweet this). That’s likely to rise to at least 15% (or 20 million jobs lost) by the end of this month – a level of unemployment not seen since the Great Depression. And since economic growth tends to reflect unemployment data, the US economy as a whole is expected to shrink by 12-15%.

For markets: Fed up.
Half of the Fed’s “dual mandate” is to ensure maximum employment, so it probably saw Thursday’s data as a vindication of its own decision to announce $2.3 trillion of new loans. They’ll be targeted at almost every corner of the US economy, including small and medium-sized businesses, states and municipalities, and – through an increase in bond-buying (including some “risky” ones) – major corporations. The Fed’s support will come with conditions, though – like keeping workers employed wherever possible.

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💬 Quote of the day

“A smile is the beginning of peace.”

– Mother Teresa (an Albanian-Indian Roman Catholic nun and missionary)

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💎 Lead a life of luxury

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📈 All’s well that trends well

Here’s some of our most popular content this week…

Premium Insights:
🔮 Two possible futures for the post-pandemic economy
🚗 Why coronavirus-hit Tesla just had its best first quarter ever
👻 The “coronabond” crisis could be bigger than Brexit

Packs:
🤓 How technical analysis can help you find the market bottom
📉 How to build a recession-proof portfolio
👨‍💻 How your job – or lack of one – impacts the economy

📚 What we're reading

So the machines can read your mind now (BBC)
“Ah f***, it’s the plague” (Interesting Engineering)
Live the restaurant life in your apartment (Eater)

👋 A message from Max, our founder

“Hey guys. There’s a lot of news out there at the moment, and you ought to feel informed right now, not overwhelmed. So we’re here to keep things simple: we’ll bring you the stories, insights, and deep-dives you need to follow exactly what’s going on without getting lost in the coronavirus weeds. You can find it all in the Finimize app.”

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Finimize - 🇺🇸 US jobs get worse and worse

Today's big stories

Swing And A Miss

What’s Going On Here?

What Does This Mean?

Why Should I Care?

Where To Invest, Part 1

👜 Stay-at-home style inspiration

Job Nopening

What’s Going On Here?

What Does This Mean?

Why Should I Care?

💎 Lead a life of luxury

📈 All’s well that trends well

👋 A message from Max, our founder

Older messages

💰 Airbnb's 1 billion richer

☠️ Dividends are doomed

📉 Stocks break records

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