Finimize - ⚔️ Oil giant vs. green energy

What’s going on here?

Kering predicted worse-than-expected first-quarter sales on Wednesday, blaming its Gucci brand for having a bad influence on the luxury retailer.

What does this mean?

Kering wasn’t due to bring its sales to show and tell until later next month. But aware that the reveal was looking more gauche than luxe, Kering divulged that sales will likely fall by 10% this quarter from the same time last year, worse than the 3% analysts expect. So all eyes were on Gucci – and not thanks to fine leather craftsmanship. Despite a new management team, creative director, and product revamp, Gucci expects quarterly sales to come in 34% lower in Asia and 20% lower worldwide than at the same time last year, while investors had predicted a 4% global dip. That’s a big deal: the brand usually makes up around 60% of Kering’s profit, so it’s no wonder investors pushed the stock down 11% after the news.

Why should I care?

For markets: Investors went off brands.

That’s not to say that fashionistas have suddenly lost their interest in maximalist Italian fashion. China’s usually a major shopping district for luxury brands, but the country’s economic wobbles have encouraged folk to stick to window shopping instead. So wary that Kering’s results will be echoed by fellow luxury brands, investors dropped the stocks of LVMH, Burberry, and Cartier-owner Richemont, too.

Zooming out: This isn’t a high-end problem.

Just like their products, luxury stocks tend to be more expensive than the wider market, so investors aren’t shy to drop them at the first sign of trouble. Bear in mind, though, that China’s shoppers aren’t just leaving luxury wares on the rack: overall retail sales in the country only increased by 5.5% in the first two months of this year versus last – the smallest uptick in a year. Even tech companies seem to be feeling the effects, with Tencent – China’s biggest internet company – releasing unremarkable fourth-quarter results on Wednesday.

What’s going on here?

Kuwait Petroleum took issue with predictions that global oil demand will tail off, on-brand for a giant black gold producer.

What does this mean?

The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes oil will fall out of favor after 2030, as governments embrace cleaner alternatives. Kuwait Petroleum thinks the agency’s missed a trick, though. The world’s population is expected to increase by a quarter before 2050, putting a strain on developing countries where millions already have no access to electricity. So while the world tackles that inequality, Kuwait Petroleum's CEO estimates that we’ll burn through more energy per person over the next two and a half decades. Oil would be a popular pick: it’s a lot cheaper than many alternative energies. That’s why Kuwait Petroleum plans to produce one million more barrels of oil a day by 2035, bringing its daily roll-out to a weighty four million barrels.

Why should I care?

Zooming out: You can’t trust anyone.

The IEA and OPEC – the group of the world’s biggest oil-producing nations – have more than one million barrels of oil a day between their forecasts for demand this year, the biggest difference in opinion for 16 years. See, the organizations aren’t working off the same assumptions: in fact, OPEC believes the IEA’s predictions are skewed by the agency’s optimism around green energy. Now, it’s fine if they don’t see eye to eye. Problem is, those biased outlooks could start influencing where investors put their money.

The bigger picture: Fuel the future – literally.

AI might have the potential to dream up perfectly sustainable energy solutions, but for now, it’ll need to fuel those imaginations with dirtier fuel. A lot of it, too: Boston Consulting Group believes that technologies related to AI products – from smartphones to household appliances – will devour 7.5% of the US’s electricity by 2030, triple the share from only two years ago.