BANKING

Because Someone's Gotta Go First...

The biggest U.S. banks are kicking earnings season into gear this week, but what's typically a routine financial checkup now feels like a corporate colonoscopy. 

Bank stocks have dropped about 35% year-to-date, nearly wiping out last year's gains. Options traders are betting the pandemic-induced crisis will send shares swinging wildly, with implied volatility nearly triple what it was heading into January's earnings calls. 

KBW analysts lowered earnings estimates by 58% for 2020 and 50% next year. But "whether a bank 'beats' or 'misses' first-quarter earnings estimates will be meaningless," MarketWatch reports, because results will be affected by banks beefing up reserves ahead of a wave of expected defaults on existing loans. 

Other forces turning Jamie Dimon’s hair from gray to white: 

• The Fed cutting interest rates near zero last quarter (reducing the profits banks can make off loans) 
• Hits to corporate advisory arms as companies freeze M&A
• Four straight weeks of declining home purchase applications

Two reasons why the sky isn’t totally falling: Trading arms probably got a boost when the stock market tanked in March. And businesses whose revenue suddenly dried up have been tapping credit lines like a cold brew keg. Banks have extended $223 billion so far this year, nearly two-thirds of which took place from March 17–19. 

• Congress's $2.2 trillion relief package and new Fed programs to lend to small businesses might siphon off some of that business in the coming weeks. 

Looking ahead

JPMorgan’s Dimon, who’s up first this morning along with Wells Fargo, already conceded “earnings will be down meaningfully in 2020” in last week’s letter to shareholders. Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs report tomorrow, and Morgan Stanley will follow up on Thursday. 

Investors will be listening closely for banks to give details on any relief they're offering to affected customers and workers, as well as when execs think things will return to "normal," whatever that means anymore.

INTERNATIONAL

How Israel Plans to Restart Its Economy

Listen, we're like you—we'll read anything that provides a blueprint for getting life back to 10% of normal. One interesting guide comes from Israel, where the country's National Security Council has reportedly finalized a plan to slowly lift stay-at-home restrictions.

The plan consists of four phases and focuses on opening more lucrative sectors first, Haaretz reports:

Phase 1: Tech and finance, plus slices of trade-oriented industries. These sectors employ more than 10% of the population. 

Phase 2: Commerce and retail stores. 

Phase 3: Restaurants and hotels. The NSC expects most of the education system will be back at this point, too.

Phase 4: Recreational sectors like sports, air travel, and entertainment.

If that seems like a straightforward process, consider these caveats:

• Each phase will have a two-week buffer to review whether the next can proceed.
• All of the public health guidelines we've been subject to (social distancing, face masks, etc.) will be required for reopening industries.
• None of these phases applies to people over 60 and other at-risk populations.

Bottom line: Coronavirus restrictions will almost definitely extend into the summer.

+ While we're here: NY, NJ, and a few other northeastern states have formed a task force to coordinate reopening their economies. So have some West Coast states.

E-COMMERCE

Amazon Keeps Going...and Going...

You may be practicing TikTok dances for five hours a day, but things have never been busier in Bezosland. 

After prioritizing shipments of medical supplies and other high-demand products for the last month, Amazon has given third-party sellers the green light to once again ship limited quantities of "non-essential" items to warehouses, signaling a renewed focus on getting customers the indoor putting green they’ve been waiting on for weeks. 

As for your eclairs, you might need to keep waiting. Despite heavy competition from Walmart, demand for Amazon's expanded grocery pick up and delivery service is sky-high...

• So high, that starting yesterday, customers who signed up for the service were automatically added to a waitlist.

Keep in mind, the worker packing your box will most likely be a noobie. After filling the 100,000 new positions it opened in March, Amazon said yesterday it's hiring 75,000 more warehouse and distribution workers this month. 

Along with increasing hourly wages and offering two weeks of paid sick leave, Amazon has focused on making safety upgrades to protect new employees from the coronavirus following criticism.

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We Finally Got Around to Starting a Hobby

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Their classes on drawing, writing, and journaling are also useful to manage stress, practice mindfulness, and feel connected to one another in inspiring new ways. 

Explore your creativity and get 2 free months of Premium Membership when you sign up. Because who knows—you might actually have a knack for making zines. The offer is limited to the first 1,000 Brew readers, so don’t miss out.

FOOD

BLT, but Hold the B

Over the weekend, one of the U.S.’ largest pork processing plants halted operations after hundreds of employees contracted COVID-19, the latest closure by a major meat producer. 

• The plant’s operator, Smithfield Foods, accounts for nearly 18 million daily servings of meat. Its president warned that the U.S.’ meat supply is “perilously close to the edge.” 

Food shortage fears have bounced around for weeks as shoppers stare down empty shelves. But short supplies are more a byproduct of demand spikes from frenzied customers and supply chain disruptions, Vice reports. 

Many farmers are actually trying to send more food to grocery stores as commercial customers like hotels, schools, and restaurants cancel orders. But reworking your supply chain is a logistical nightmare even in a good economy.

Some producers have nowhere to send supplies. Farmers have left veggies rotting in fields and dumped millions of gallons of milk. The seafood industry is practically throwing fresh lobster at customers as fishery sales capsize as much as 95%. 

Looking ahead…the pandemic could accelerate direct-to-consumer sales of groceries, fresh meat, and other supplies.  

CONSUMER GOODS

Forgotten Brands Enjoy a Renaissance With a Side of Mac

14th–17th century Renaissance: A period of flowering artistic expression giving rise to timeless works of art, calculus, and the printing press.

2020 Renaissance: A period of quarantine giving rise to timeless days, junk food, and jigsaw puzzles. 

As COVID-19 jolted people from their daily routines, industries and pastimes once tossed aside are making a surprising comeback.

• Processed food: A struggling Kraft Heinz enjoyed a 3% increase in sales in the first quarter of 2020 as a nation that shunned processed food in recent years returned to the comfort of a steaming bowl of boxed mac and cheese.
• Jigsaw puzzles: 136-year-old puzzle maker Ravensburger sold an average of seven puzzles per minute in North America. Since the beginning of April, the company’s been selling puzzles at a rate of nearly 20 per minute—a nearly 286% increase.
• Houseparty: While Zoom has cornered boardroom communication, Houseparty has reemerged as a go-to place for spontaneous video hangouts among friends. The app, first released in 2016, saw 17 million downloads in March. 

Looking ahead...the Enlightenment.

COMMUNITY

The Secrets Behind 2 Million Subscribers

If you hit 2 million subscribers and don't write a blog post...does it make a sound? 

We're not going to find out. If you want a peek behind the scenes at Morning Brew, cofounder and COO Austin Rief wrote a fascinating blog post about how we got here and where we’re going next. . 

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

• Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed Joe Biden for president.
• SoftBank expects an operating loss of $12.5 billion for the fiscal year ended March 31, driven by losses from its WeWork and OneWeb investments.
• Quibi, the new mobile streaming service, had 1.7 million downloads its first week, CEO Meg Whitman told CNBC.
• In other streaming news, Netflix stock hit a 52-week high.
• The WHO said there are currently 70 COVID-19 vaccines in development.

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PODCAST

How COVID-19 Impacts Your Personal Finance

Life may be tough right now...but you might be about to get a check in the mail from the government.

So what should you do with that money? Once your necessities are covered, is it best to splurge or save? And what kind of impact—if any—will these payouts have on the U.S. economy?

This week on Morning Brew’s Business Casual podcast, we’re diving into personal finance in the COVID-19 age with money expert and I Will Teach You to Be Rich author Ramit Sethi. 

Listen here: Apple / Spotify /

MORE OR LESS?

Like just about everything else, our music listening habits have changed in the past month. This quiz is simple: We’ll give you an artist with a significant change in streaming in the U.S. during March. You have to determine whether that change is up or down. 

1. Bob Marley & The Wailers
2. Maren Morris
3. 50 Cent
4. Simon & Garfunkel
5. The Chainsmokers 
6. Kidz Bop Kids

MORE OR LESS? ANSWERS

1. Bob Marley & The Wailers = UP
2. Maren Morris = DOWN
3. 50 Cent = DOWN
4. Simon & Garfunkel = UP
5. The Chainsmokers = DOWN
6. Kidz Bop Kids = UP

Source: Quartz