Finimize - 📈 Oil's runaway price

Oil prices landed above $90 for the first time in months | The US went all-out on jobs |
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Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for April 6th in 3:09 minutes.

👽 Pick one: a peek inside Area 51, or a look into the minds of thousands of savvy retail investors. Well, security blocked us from the first, but here's the second: where modern investors are putting their money this quarter, and why.

Today's big stories

  1. Rising tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices above $90
  2. These opportunities are being overlooked by most income investors – Read Now
  3. The US added 303,000 jobs in March, way above economists’ expectations

The Brent Ascent

The Brent Ascent

What’s going on here?

The benchmark oil price landed above $90 for the first time since October.

What does this mean?

Oil prices have been driven 18% higher this year, beating the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, a result of supply being capped while demand is anything but. OPEC+, the group of the world’s biggest oil-producing nations, has played its part by limiting the number of barrels it sends into the market. The biggest factor has been rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, though. The region supplies around a third of the world’s oil, a bounty that could be compromised if the current conflict spreads into other countries. And with serious escalation between Israel and Iran looking increasingly likely, some banks have raised their forecasts recently, with JPMorgan saying benchmark-setting Brent crude oil could reach $100 a barrel.

Why should I care?

For markets: It’s high stakes for stocks.

High energy prices tend to make everything more expensive, meaning oil’s price could be the catalyst that sparks inflation back to life. So if higher prices last, it could become harder for the Federal Reserve to justify interest rate cuts, and in that case, higher-for-longer rates would keep weighing on stocks. Now, investors have been expecting rates to fall, so they’ve been buying stocks and riskier assets in anticipation. But if they’re wrong, they’ll need to readjust – and that could shake up the stock market big time.

The bigger picture: Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.

This could serve as a lesson to never put all your eggs in one basket – especially when the economy, the chief egg-cracker, is this volatile. An “all-weather” portfolio could be a better option, then. That involves blending global stocks, safe-haven treasury bonds, store-of-value gold, and commodities that could benefit from inflation, a collection designed to give you a better chance of benefiting in any economic climate.

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Analyst Take

You Might Be Looking In The Wrong Place For Dividends

You Might Be Looking In The Wrong Place For Dividends

When most folk think about income investing, they think of mature companies, legacy industries, developed markets, and limited growth.

That makes sense: the go-to developed market income strategy certainly has its place in portfolios.

But, look, there’s also a highly compelling case to be made for diversifying into emerging markets.

That’s today’s Insight: why dividend investors should take a fresh look at emerging markets.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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A Full-Climb Job

A Full-Climb Job

What’s going on here?

The US went into overdrive, adding 303,000 jobs in March – the most in ten months.

What does this mean?

The monthly “nonfarm payrolls” report tracks the number of paid workers in the US, excluding those in a couple of sectors like farming. In March, the US added 303,000 jobs, way more than the 200,000 economists expected and even stronger than February’s 275,000. That’s a sign of strength from the US job market, indicating that companies have enough cash to hire and workers are getting money in their pockets.

Why should I care?

For markets: Money, money, money.

The average hourly wage rose by 0.3% between February and March. That’s something of a sweet spot: wages are picking up slightly faster than inflation, but not enough to encourage rampant spending that could provoke another price spiral. That tends to happen when there’s a shortage of available workers, forcing employers to bid against each other by upping their salaries. Now, there could be a risk of that over the long term, since lower birth rates and an aging population look set to reduce the pool of workers. But the US can count on its reputation as the Land of Opportunity to bring in reinforcements: based on last year, around 18% of the country’s workforce was born overseas.

The bigger picture: The bets are off.

Inflation might be moving toward the 2% target, but since the economy is holding up just fine, the central bank won’t have much incentive to cut interest rates. (Remember, higher interest rates make it more expensive for individuals and businesses to borrow and spend money, a combination that can send an economy south.) The jury’s still out: one Federal Reserve official predicted zero cuts this year, while another said they expected three, but traders reduced their bets on any early rate cuts after those hardy job numbers did the rounds.

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💬 Quote of the day

"Worry never robs tomorrow of its sorrow, it only saps today of its joy."

– Leo Buscaglia (an American author and motivational speaker)
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Thousands of retail investors from our million-strong global community told us how they’re planning to invest this quarter.

In the finance circle, that's gossip as juicy as news of Taylor Swift's romantic getaway.

Here's the teaser of our exclusive data:

  • 42% of retail investors use social media significantly less than they used to for investing.
  • 65% are more interested in getting financial advice and information than ever before.
  • 74% of retail investors think global stock markets will be higher in 12 months.
Check The Pulse

🎯 On Our Radar

1. Bring back the “bend and snap”. Legally Blonde is becoming a TV show.

2. New crypto projects are spawned every day. Here's your guide to investing in bitcoin.*

3. Like Game Boy consoles, but for adult tech-heads. AI hardware is rolling out at some speed.

4. Time to take your first steps. Here's how to get started on your investment journey.**

5. The universe works in mysterious ways. Here’s how to take the invisible string theory into your own hands.

**Your capital is at risk. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

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💪 Building Wealthy Women: Investing in Your Future: 5pm, April 11th
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