Donald Trump thinks he just pulled a fast one on the media and the electorate. On Monday morning, Trump put out a video articulating his “position” on abortion:

The states will determine by vote, or legislation, or perhaps both, and whatever they decide must be the law of the land – in this case, the law of the state. Many states will be different. Many states will have a different number of weeks… at the end of the day it is all about the will of the people.

For weeks, Trump signaled he was planning on proposing a 15- or 16-week national abortion ban. The media are already interpreting his announcement as a shift towards moderation on the contentious issue that has impacted Republicans in multiple elections following the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Due to his background as a (formerly?) wealthy figure from Manhattan, Trump doesn’t fit the stereotype of a far-right extremist on social issues such as abortion. As Sarah Longwell has previously noted, some participants in focus groups find it laughable to consider Trump personally opposed to abortion and instead suggest that he may have financed abortions in the past.

It was always going to take more work to make voters view Trump as a dire threat to abortion access. On the surface, this announcement will make that task even more challenging. I have no doubt that the press will portray Trump’s stance of leaving abortion decisions to the states as a political masterstroke, potentially seen as more bad news for Joe Biden. I’m not so sure. 

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1. Don’t Believe Him

I wouldn’t take Donald Trump’s word on the weather, let alone on an issue of such consequence as reproductive freedom. In 2016, Trump tried to avoid the political attacks that defeated Mitt Romney by declaring he was opposed to cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Just like the coverage of today’s announcement, that proclamation was portrayed as triangulating from the more conservative elements of his party. Once Trump got into office, he tried to gut Medicaid and included cuts to Social Security and Medicare in his budget every single year. Donald Trump brags all of the time about the role he played in overturning Roe v. Wade. If he wins the White House, the most likely scenario is that the GOP will also control the House and the Senate. 

The current Speaker of the House is a far right ideologue with some of the most retrograde views on abortion in the country. We don’t know who will lead the Senate Republicans, but almost certainly that person will advocate for a national stance on abortion. Under that scenario, a national abortion ban will be headed to Trump’s desk and, if you think he won’t sign it, I have some stock in a fledgling social media site to sell you.

2. Trump Just Came Out in Support of the Most Aggressive Bans

While Trump said in his less than articulate video that he supported exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother, the logical extension of his position is that he is fine with states passing bans with zero exceptions. If you leave it up to the states and a state passes an extreme ban with little to no exceptions—like the one that recently went into effect in Florida—you are de facto supporting such a ban. His personal views on exceptions are irrelevant.

Therefore, no matter where you live, no matter who is in the White House or controls Congress, Donald Trump is fine with your state legislature passing the most extreme abortion ban possible.

3. How to Respond

• Don't Let Trump Get Away with It: We have to aggressively push back against any framing of Trump’s position as moderate. Trump once said, “I was proudly the person responsible” for the overturning of Roe v. Wade. He has suggested women be criminally prosecuted for seeking an abortion. He personally bears responsibility for the Supreme Court’s removal of rights and freedoms, resulting in bans being enforced in 20 states.

• Frame It as an Extreme: Trump’s message explicitly endorses the most extreme bans in effect in this country and allows more states to implement even more extreme bans. The ban in Florida is Trump’s position, not the verbal applesauce in that video.

• Run on a National Law Restoring Roe: The best response to Trump’s new abortion message (and it is a message, not a position), is to continue to aggressively promote a national law to restore Roe. As President Biden said in the State of the Union:

Clearly, those bragging about overturning Roe v. Wade have no clue about the power of women in America. They found out though when reproductive freedom was on the ballot and won in 2022, 2023, and they will find out again in 2024. If Americans send me a Congress that supports the right to choose, I promise you, I will restore Roe v. Wade as the law of the land again!” 

A national law restoring Roe presents the most stark contrast with the “leave it to the states” approach. President Biden will safeguard your rights and freedoms, while Trump will endorse any endeavor to strip them away.

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