Late Saturday, Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel, marking the first time Tehran directly attacked its adversary from its own territory. The attack significantly raised the temperature in the Middle East and could put more upward pressure on oil prices, which have already been rising steadily this year.

What happened: Iran said it sent the aerial barrage to retaliate for a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus. Iran’s attack caused little damage. Israel said it, along with the US, Western allies, and Arab partners, shot down 99% of the projectiles fired by Iran.

What Israel will do next—the retaliation to the retaliation—is now the central question. To avoid a full-blown regional war that drags in the US, President Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US wouldn’t provide support for an Israeli counterattack on Iran.

What this could mean for energy markets

A direct confrontation involving Israel, Iran, and the US that disrupts oil supplies was the worst-case scenario for investors following Hamas’s attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Those concerns have grown in recent months, sending oil prices nearly 20% higher in 2024.

Elevated oil prices filter through the economy in numerous ways:

• The most obvious: Average US gas prices have jumped about 50 cents per gallon since early January to ~$3.70…and that’s before the summer travel season gets underway.
• Higher oil prices are broadly inflationary because they raise costs for any company moving goods (Target, say) or people (Delta).

That’s why spiking oil prices reflect “the most serious threat to the economy,” Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi told CNN about the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

But rising oil prices are about more than Middle East tensions. The OPEC+ group of producers has cut output, demand for fuel has been greater than expected due to the strong economy, and Ukraine is launching drone attacks against Russian oil refineries, curtailing supply.

+ Further reading: What the Israel–Iran conflict means for the global economy.—NF

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Trump’s hush money trial begins today. The GOP’s presidential nominee will become the first former commander in chief to stand trial in a criminal case when he faces 34 counts of first-degree falsification of business records. Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg alleges that Trump concealed a $130,000 payment to buy the silence of adult film star Stormy Daniels, who claimed to have a sexual relationship with Trump, ahead of the 2016 election. The payment rises to a felony offense because Trump reimbursed personal lawyer Michael Cohen with checks from the Trump Organization “for legal services rendered,” which Bragg contends is false. Trump faces a maximum of four years in prison, although experts believe that even if found guilty, he’s unlikely to see the inside of a cell.

Seven killed in stabbing spree at a mall near Sydney. Police, as of Sunday, said they had not identified the motive of the 40-year-old man who is suspected of killing five women and a male security guard at a shopping center before being shot dead by a female police officer, who has been called a “hero” by Australia’s prime minister. Eleven others—nine women and two men—were taken to a hospital after suffering stab wounds, including a nine-month-old girl whose mother was killed in the attack. Whether the suspect intentionally targeted women would be “an obvious line of inquiry,” according to New South Wales Police Commissioner Karen Webb.

It’s Tax Day. If it snuck up on you and you require a reprieve to prevent the government from raiding your bank account, you’re not alone—the IRS expects 19 million people to file for an extension this year. The agency will automatically grant you a six-month extension, although it’s recommended you remit a payment today if you expect to owe money to avoid interest and penalties. The good news is you probably won’t have to fork over as much as Mark Cuban, who said he is sending the IRS $288 million today and is proud to pay his share.

A long-vacant, 44-story office tower in St. Louis sold last week for $3.6 million, a 98% plunge from when it changed hands for $205 million in 2006. The cratering value of the former One AT&T Center is the latest example of how commercial real estate in the Midwest has been ravaged by remote work.

Six of the 10 office districts in the US that had the biggest decline in foot traffic from 2019 to the middle of 2023 are in the Midwest, according to a University of Toronto study. St. Louis had the steepest drop of all.

The challenge for St. Louis is one faced by many major cities since the pandemic: Avoid a “doom loop,” the phenomenon of people fleeing a city when conditions worsen, followed by the conditions becoming even worse because people moved away, which causes more people to move away. St. Louis may already be trapped in one, the WSJ reports.

Can a city break free of it? Coastal cities like New York and San Francisco have rebounded faster than expected, and St. Louis is showing signs of life…just not in the office district. Neighborhoods near downtown are attracting people with a new soccer stadium, restaurants, bars, residential buildings, and a train station that’s been converted into an amusement park.—DL

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The 128th Boston Marathon is today: This morning, ~30,000 people will run, at varying speeds, 26.2 miles from Hopkinton, MA, to Boylston Street in one of the most famous races in the world. Productivity in your firm’s Boston office will be low as 500k spectators spill out to the streets to cheer on the racers and sneak in a few Monday morning beers. There is a bit of controversy this year, since the corporate sponsor, Bank of America, will get its logo on the famous medals.

The WNBA is about to have Caitlin Clark Fever: The Iowa superstar is expected to be the first overall pick by the Indiana Fever in tonight’s WNBA draft in New York, where she made a guest appearance on Saturday Night Live. The league is aiming to capitalize on Clark’s ability to draw record viewership to the college game: Thirty-six of the Fever’s 40 games are scheduled to air on national TV this season, the most of any WNBA team. As for archrival and fellow ratings juggernaut Angel Reese, mock drafts have the LSU double-double machine being selected inside the Top 10.

Taylor Swift drops her new album: First announced at the Grammys, The Tortured Poets Department arrives on Friday, sans apostrophe but full of hype. If it’s anything like Beyoncé’s new record, Swift’s 11th studio album could have a major impact beyond music: Cowboy Carter is linked to a rise in Western boot sales and denim.

Everything else…

• Earnings season rolls on with heavy hitters Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Netflix.
• Bitcoin’s once-every-four-years “halvening” event is coming this week. Here’s what that means.
• The NBA playoffs begin with the play-in tournament on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday.
• The long-awaited travel show Conan O’Brien Must Go will premiere on Thursday on Max. Conan will head to foreign lands to connect with fans he met through his podcast.

Stat: Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney apparently knew what they were doing when they bought a struggling Welsh soccer club for $2.5 million in 2021. Wrexham was promoted for the second straight season on Saturday, which means they’ll play in League One next season and are now only two more promotions away from reaching the pinnacle of English soccer, the Premier League. Ryan and Rob are perhaps the most famous American owners of English soccer teams, but they’re far from alone: More than one-third of the 92 teams in England’s top four leagues have some form of US ownership, per Bloomberg.

Quote: “It was a major disappointment.”

For many Americans, last week’s total solar eclipse was a moment they’ll remember forever. But for others aboard a special “path of totality” Delta flight from Dallas to Detroit, it was a major letdown—because the flight had to veer away from the path of totality. Thanks to heavy congestion in the sky, the plane was rerouted by air traffic controllers, who denied the pilot permission to show passengers (some of whom paid more than $1,000 for a seat) a clear view of the celestial resplendence. Despite their FOMO fears coming true, many passengers told WaPo they still enjoyed the experience.

Read: New York Times bosses seek to quash rebellion in the newsroom. (Wall Street Journal)