Finimize - 💼 China got back to business

China beat the odds – and the expectations | The UK job market was a head scratcher |
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Today's big stories

  1. China’s economy beat expectations, no thanks to that pesky property market
  2. Today’s retail investors are loading up on optimism, along with these assets – Read Now
  3. The UK job market sent mixed signals, making any rate cut predictions even muddier than before

Blossom Season

Blossom Season

What’s going on here?

China’s economy bloomed by 5.3% last quarter from the same time last year, beating the expectations of 4.6%.

What does this mean?

It seems the Chinese government’s efforts to push cash around the country have finally had an impact. Hefty stimulus packages injected some life back into the industrial sector, not least because the government is pushing for more goods to be made on the country’s own soil instead of abroad. A decent dose of orders from foreign countries and a chunk of investment didn’t hurt, either. Still, it looks like it'll take more than that to convince investors that China’s back on track: the CSI 300 and Hang Seng, two of the country’s major indexes, fell by 1.1% and 2.1% respectively on Tuesday.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: No wonder investors have doubts.

The infamous property market – which has sent ripples through the economy, in part by impacting homeowners’ financial confidence and spending habits – has still been flashing red. Cement production was down 22% in March versus the same time last year, the biggest drop since records started in 1995, indicating a stall in the number of homes being built. Plus, China invested 9.5% less into the property sector last quarter than the same time last year, enough to dampen the impact of better spending in the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors. So if China doesn’t put its money where its mishaps are, there’s little chance of the economy-bruising property market sorting itself out.

The bigger picture: You can’t beat a sale.

China’s manufacturing industry has gone a little too hard on renewables, producing more solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles than the local market knows what to do with. The country’s now selling them abroad at impossibly low prices, and European and US companies can’t compete. Tesla, for example, had to delay the launch of its low-cost model and fire staff because sales have suffered.

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Analyst Take

Retail Investors Are More Optimistic Than Ever – And Betting Big

Retail Investors Are More Optimistic Than Ever – And Betting Big
Photo of Carl Hazeley

Carl Hazeley, Analyst

If you’re feeling pretty positive about your portfolio, you’re not the only one.

We just caught up with thousands of you savvy retail investing types and found that a record number are viewing the market through rose-tinted glass.

And that’s despite some pesky fears about a potential bubble in AI and crypto assets.

That’s today’s Insight: what our latest modern investor survey says about how to invest now.

Read or listen to the Insight here

SPONSORED BY GRAYSCALE

Crypto’s big boss

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The digital asset specialist manages the biggest batch of crypto assets in the world*, and has done so since 2013. That makes them pretty old as well as big – at least in crypto years.

Grayscale is a pioneer of crypto investments, working to bring investors exposure to this emerging asset class in innovative ways. Its mantra: crypto investing begins with Grayscale.

It could be a good time to get to know your crypto options, after all: bitcoin reached a new all-time high in March 2024.

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Find Out More

Disclosures
*Based on AUM as of 3/31/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. Visit Grayscale.com for important risk disclosures.

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Raised And Confused

Raised And Confused

What’s going on here?

The UK unemployment rate crept up – but because wages did too, the Bank of England (BoE) has some head-scratching to do.

What does this mean?

British companies have axed more jobs than expected recently, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.2% between December and February. That’s the highest level in six months, signaling that the heady job market might be taking a breather and potentially encouraging the BoE to consider interest rate cuts. Mind you, wages are still increasing more than economists would like, only slowing their pace to 6% from the previous reading of 6.1% – and that could push the central bank away from rate trims. Now, that disconnect might be down to unreliable data: the survey that underpins those numbers has previously had its results paused due to low response rates. Either way, the contradictory statistics will make it hard for economists to accurately assess the UK job market – and even harder for the BoE to take action.

Why should I care?

For markets: More money, more problems.

Higher wages can feed into consumer prices, potentially stalling or undoing the central bank’s progress with inflation. After all, that may already be happening in the US. But so long as unemployment is increasing, employers will have more power to keep wages capped without losing applicants to a competitor. If that trend keeps up and slows the rate of wage growth, the BoE might be able to revisit rate cuts this summer.

The bigger picture: Take your economics with a pinch of salt.

Economic statistics will turn out widely different depending on how the data is collected and processed. Time lags, the type of methodology used, seasonal adjustments, and one-off factors all have an impact. Case in point: data’s been less reliable since the pandemic, when it became harder to collect in the usual ways, leading to unrepresentative samples, more frequent updates, and a lot of guesstimates to fill the gaps.

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💬 Quote of the day

"Falling in love consists merely in uncorking the imagination and bottling the common sense."

– Helen Rowland (an American journalist and humorist)
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SPONSORED BY GRAYSCALE

When it comes to crypto, you need a specialist

Crypto has been grabbing more than its fair share of attention this year.

No wonder: bitcoin hit its highest price ever – above $73,000 per coin – this March.

Grayscale is the world’s biggest crypto asset manager*, with over a decade of experience operating crypto-focused funds.

The company is on a mission to “transform disruptive technologies of the future into investment opportunities today.” So far, so good: Grayscale manages a suite of different crypto investment products spanning single-asset, multi-asset, and thematic exposures.

Discover the specialist when it comes to crypto investments.

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*Based on AUM as of 3/31/2024
Disclosures
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. Visit Grayscale.com for important risk disclosures.

When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that.

If you want your brand featured here, get in touch.

🎯 On Our Radar

1. Nothing can beat a generic crunch. Momofuku has a lot to say about the chili trademark war.

2. Back to the futures. Get to the root of trading futures and (why you’d want to) with this free guide.*

3. Silicon Valley is all talk. Somewhere between Clubhouse and Twitter, Airchat is the new social media that has everyone, ahem, talking.

4. Time to take your first steps. Here's how to get started on your investment journey.**

5. The British health system is launching a world first. An “artificial pancreas” could help manage diabetes.

**Your capital is at risk. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that.

🌍 Finimize Live

🤩 Coming Up Soon...

All events are in UK time.

💸 Increase Your Wealth With Blockchain And Bitcoin: 5pm April 24th
💥 A Beginners Guide To Impact Investing: 5pm, May 14th
🤖 How To Leverage AI In Investing: 5pm, June 4th
🚀 2024 Modern Investor Summit: 2pm, December 3rd

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