Cheers for the Fed’s successful pillow-soft landing might’ve been premature. New GDP numbers out yesterday show a worrying combo of stubborn inflation + waning growth that dampens hopes for a potential interest rate cut.

Per the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the first quarter of 2024 was a confounding one:

• GDP increased at a 1.6% annualized rate, far below projections of 2.4% and notably down from 3.4% at the end of 2023.
• While slow growth would typically signal that the Fed could cut rates, another metric complicates matters: Consumer prices (excluding volatile categories), a solid indicator of inflation, shot up to a much higher than anticipated 3.7%.

So, things are bad? Not quite. Compared to the rest of the world, the US economy is still ripping. The US will account for 26.3% of global GDP this year, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund, and outperforms its competitors on additional measures. Plus, applications for unemployment benefits fell to their lowest level in two months, and consumers continue to spend despite increasing debt.

Proceed with caution. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon summed up the situation by warning against a “false sense of security.” Dimon, who puts the odds of a successful soft landing at less than 50%, specifically cited geopolitical challenges and the $2 trillion fiscal deficit (2% of GDP) as reasons he’s cautious about the health of the economy over the next few years.

Looking ahead…the Fed is stuck in “monetary policy purgatory,” said KPMG’s chief economist, as it deliberates if and when it will cut rates. All options are on the table, including a dreaded rate hike.—CC

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Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape conviction was overturned. In a 4–3 decision, the New York Court of Appeals ruled that the disgraced Hollywood producer did not receive a fair trial when he was convicted of felony sex crimes in 2020. The court determined that the judge improperly allowed several accusers who were not part of the charges in the case to testify against him. Weinstein will remain in jail but could be transferred to California, where he was sentenced to 16 years in a separate rape conviction. More than 100 women have accused Weinstein of sexual abuse dating back to the 1970s.

SCOTUS is skeptical of Trump’s immunity claim, but might still delay his DC trial. That was pundits’ takeaway from oral arguments at the Supreme Court yesterday, where lawyers for Trump argued that the former president should be completely immune from prosecution in his federal election interference case. Justices did not seem convinced that presidents are above the law, though some on the court’s conservative wing signaled that the case needs to iron out some kinks in the lower courts before it can go to trial. That would be a win for Trump, as it almost certainly would mean the trial would be delayed until after November’s presidential election. The court is expected to issue its ruling by July.

Big Tech earnings roundup. Alphabet, Microsoft, and Snap reported Q1 earnings yesterday, and the vibes were generally good. Alphabet issued its first-ever dividend and authorized $70 billion in stock buybacks, after it beat Wall Street’s revenue expectations. Microsoft also beat revenue forecasts on the strength of its cloud services. And Snap shares soared after it topped estimates and impressed investors with its 422 million global daily active users. It was a much-needed boost for the sector after Meta spooked the market with how much it’s spending on AI gizmos.

Even with myriad hacks to trick employees into boosting the barbacoa in your burrito, Chipotle still crushed Q1. The fast-casual restaurant chain reported higher-than-expected revenue and a 5.4% increase in location traffic compared to the same time last year, despite charging diners more.

Don’t believe everything you see on TikTok. While the vocal frustration over perceived quality decline amid the price hikes has ratcheted up, customers keep coming back.

• Defying industry trends, Chipotle has raised prices six times in the last three years and has still managed to see traffic and sales go up. Meanwhile, companies like McDonald’s have seen their customer base skip the drive-thru because of price hikes.
• Chipotle made $2.7 billion in revenue last quarter, even more than the $2.68 billion Wall Street expected.

Chipotle’s chicken al pastor is so popular, in fact, that supply is running dry. A top exec sent a message to store managers asking them and their staff to choose a different protein option for their meals so there’s enough chicken for customers, but rescinded the request yesterday.

Big picture: The chain’s continued success lies in its loyal fans: higher-income, health-conscious young professionals who still think a quick $14 al pastor bowl is worth it.—MM

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Currently the No. 1 English-language Netflix show in the world, Baby Reindeer is a new limited series based on the true story of how Scottish actor Richard Gadd survived abuse and shed his stalker. But it’s not like other true-crime dramas—Gadd wrote, produced, and starred in the show himself, and now he’s asking fans to stop obsessing over it.

Why? Despite getting the story straight from the reindeer’s mouth, some internet sleuths are trying hard to find Gadd’s real-life abusers (renamed Martha and Darrien in the show) that you’d think they didn’t just watch a series about the horrors of stalking.

• The global number of Google searches for “martha baby reindeer” and “real martha” spiked this week, while some X users are circulating decade-old tweets from an account they claim belongs to the real stalker.
• Gadd’s friend Sean Foley, a fellow filmmaker, said this week that police are investigating “all defamatory abusive and threatening posts” made about him after social media users speculated that he’s the real-life abuser portrayed as Darrien, seemingly because he and the character both…have beards?

Zoom out: As true-crime shows skyrocket in popularity, “armchair detectives” have come out of the woodwork to sling half-baked theories that can snowball into dangerous doxxing.—ML

Stat: Mother Nature apparently has a thing for the cinematography in Blade Runner 2049. Athens experienced its worst dust storm since 2018 this week as hot air blew north from the Sahara Desert, blanketing the ancient Greek city in an orange mist that at one point was so thick it concealed the Acropolis. And it was about as hot as it looked: Several countries in the Mediterranean are hitting record temps. Nearby Cyprus, for instance, reached nearly 103 degrees Fahrenheit on Wednesday—the hottest April day in its history. The Sahara releases 60 million to 200 million metric tons of dust per year, the BBC reported, so this probably won’t be the last time Athens looks like a creamsicle.

Quote: “Europe could die.”

Speaking like someone who just saw the above photo of Athens, French President Emmanuel Macron argued in a speech yesterday that the European Union faces an existential risk if it doesn’t strengthen its economies, build up its militaries, and rely less on the United States. Macron has long been a proponent of “strategic autonomy,” arguing yesterday that the EU must not become a “vassal” of the US. While the speech was warmly received by other leaders, Reuters pointed out that it came as Macron tries to show his critics that he’s not a lame duck.

Read: Why universities refuse to divest from companies doing business with Israel. (WSJ)

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