Popular Information - The biggest political deception of 2024
A handful of billionaires are tightening their grip on the information ecosystem.
Popular Information takes on the powerful, and we've proven this approach can have a real impact. The billionaires consolidating their power are increasingly hostile to our work. That's why we need your help. Popular Information has 320,000 readers, but only a small percentage are paid subscribers. If more readers upgrade to paid, Popular Information can invest in alternative growth strategies, reach more people, and produce more groundbreaking accountability journalism. Support from readers like you keeps Popular Information paywall-free and available to everyone — whether or not they can afford to pay for news. So, if you can, please upgrade your subscription. It's $6 per month or $50 for a year. Thanks, Judd In the 2024 presidential election, one of the central attacks that Trump and his political allies are levying against Biden is that Biden is responsible for a "migrant crime" wave. The argument was summarized by Trump in a March 22 video:
The Republican National Committee (RNC) has launched a website dedicated to the issue, BidenBloodbath.com. "History will remember Biden for his destruction, chaos, and failure. Lives of everyday Americans have been shattered as a direct result of Biden’s open border policies — and he doesn’t care," the RNC claims on the homepage. "We have to stand up and stop Biden before he destroys our nation. The cost of doing nothing is measured in the lives lost to the… crime wave washing across America." This message has been amplified by the right-wing media. Fox News' Jesse Watters, who hosts the network's top-rated primetime show, offered this commentary on April 12:
There are violent crimes committed by undocumented migrants, which are traumatic for the victims, their families, and their communities. That is why the accusation that Biden is responsible for a surge in violent crime by undocumented migrants is so politically potent. There are disturbing anecdotes of crimes that make powerful fodder for attacks during a political campaign. People, understandably, want to feel safe. But is there evidence that, since Biden took office, there has been a surge in violent crime by undocumented migrants? The most straightforward answer would be to look at crimes committed by undocumented migrants over time. Unfortunately, this data is unavailable because law enforcement agencies do not typically collect or report information about immigration status, analyst Jeff Asher notes. In his newsletter, Jeff-alytics, Asher came up with the next best alternative. He looked at trends for "violent crime across the 14 counties along the Texas border with Mexico." If there is, in fact, a violent crime wave fueled by migrants, it would show up in these counties before anywhere else. The Texas Department of Public Safety maintains up-to-date, reliable crime data at the county level. Asher found "no evidence of increasing violent crime along the US border with Mexico." In fact, these border counties "have seen a relatively steady violent crime rate below that of the rest of their state and the nation as a whole." The same trends hold when you look at murder alone. The murder rate in border counties is consistently lower than the country as a whole, with little change over the last four years. In other words, the best available data does not support the claim that Republicans have made a central issue in the 2024 campaign. There is no "bloodbath" at the border. These areas, in fact, have less crime than the nation as a whole. The national crime declineIf there is no migrant crime wave at the border, perhaps it will show up in other areas of the country. The data does not support that claim either. Nationwide, homicide and violent crime dramatically declined in 2023. According to the latest FBI’s Quarterly Uniform Crime report, which was released in March, homicides were down 13% in 2023 compared to 2022. Meanwhile, violent crime and property crime dipped 6% and 4% respectively. This data is preliminary and based on reports submitted by 15,199 of 19,152 law enforcement agencies across the country, reflecting “about 82% of the U.S. population.” (The FBI will release a more complete analysis for 2023 in the fall.) Based on initial findings, Asher said “[t]he decline in murder in 2023 is likely the largest one year decline ever recorded.” The last time that happened was in 1996 when murder dropped 9.1%. In 163 of the 232 cities that submitted data, murder “was down or even,” Asher wrote. These findings were also mirrored in a survey by the Council on Criminal Justice, “which found that homicides were down an average of 10%” across 32 cities. The preliminary data also “suggests 2023 likely had the lowest reported violent crime rate nationally since the late 1960s,” Asher said. A few cities, including Chicago and DC, bucked the trend and saw an increase in violent crime in 2023. But there is no evidence this increase was attributable to migrants. Asher said early data from 2024 shows that “murder is down around 20 percent in 2024 in more than 180 cities” compared to the same time period last year. In some cities, like DC, Las Vegas, and New Orleans, murder has declined by “more than 30 percent.” In Chicago, murder has declined 12%. But Asher concluded that the data, though incomplete, is encouraging overall. “A murder decline of even half the magnitude suggested by the early 2024 data would place the US murder rate this year largely on par with or below where it was from 2015 to 2019,” Asher noted. The fact that we are not seeing evidence of a migrant crime surge is consistent with historical data that shows migrants, even undocumented migrants, are less likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans. A peer-reviewed 2020 study, which used data from the Texas Department of Public Safety from 2012 to 2018, "found a lower felony arrest rate for immigrants in the U.S. illegally compared to legal immigrants and native-born U.S. citizens and no evidence of increasing criminality among immigrants." An upcoming study by a researcher at the libertarian Cato Institute similarly found that "undocumented migrants in Texas were about 26% less likely to be convicted of homicide than native-born Americans over the decade of 2013-22." It appears, however, that Republican messaging around the issue is having an impact. Despite the data, most people believe crime is up. A Gallup poll in November 2023 found that 77% of Americans “believe there is more crime in the U.S. than a year ago.” |
Older messages
Why millions of Americans may lose internet access tomorrow
Monday, April 29, 2024
In 2024, reliable access to high-speed internet is no longer a luxury; it is a basic necessity. From job applications to managing personal finances and completing school work, internet access is an
The largest for-profit hospital chain is putting pregnant women at risk. Shareholders are fighting back.
Thursday, April 25, 2024
After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, 14 states have imposed near-total abortion bans. (Arizona may soon join them.) While all of these states include exemptions to save the life
Money talks
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Some publications treat the 2024 election like a horserace — it's all about who is up and who is down. Popular Information follows the money. Here are a few highlights from our reporting over the
A historic victory for unions
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
On April 19, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) announced that workers at a Volkswagen auto plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee, voted to join the United Auto Workers (UAW) union. The union won by a
Columbia University protests and the lessons of "Gym Crow"
Monday, April 22, 2024
In the early morning hours of April 30, 1968, then-Columbia University President Grayson Kirk summoned the NYPD to arrest hundreds of student protestors. About 1000 police officers arrived on campus
You Might Also Like
A Toy Tester’s FAO Schwarz Wish List
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Strategist senior writer Liza Corsillo on testing toys, and her hunt for a solid-gold Snoopy. The Strategist Every product is independently selected by editors. If you buy something through our links,
Have your cake and indicted too
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Rudy Giuliani was served with indictment papers at his own birthday party. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Will Miriam Adelman Spend Her Billions on Trump Again?
Monday, May 20, 2024
Columns and commentary on news, politics, business, and technology from the Intelligencer team. Intelligencer vision 2024 Miriam Adelson's Unfinished Business The billionaire casino mogul could
A hot, steamy iron we love
Monday, May 20, 2024
Plus: The best stain removers ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Tuesday Briefing: What’s next for Iran
Monday, May 20, 2024
Also, an international prosecutor's request for arrest warrants for leaders of Israel and Hamas. View in browser|nytimes.com Ad Morning Briefing: Asia Pacific Edition May 21, 2024 Author Headshot
FW:👂Eavesdrop on Retail's Future with Us
Monday, May 20, 2024
Join us virtually on 5/22. Hi there, Sending you a reminder to signup for our FREE virtual event tomorrow. We will be getting the scoop on everything from services vs. physical goods to migration
What We’re Buying From the Tatcha Friends & Family Sale
Monday, May 20, 2024
From a pricey skin mist to a nourishing cream. Every product is independently selected by editors. If you buy something through our links, New York may earn an affiliate commission. If you're
Lobster in the Red
Monday, May 20, 2024
Shrimp Isn't Endless, Damaging Hail ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
🗓️ Mark Your Calendars: NYC's Can't-Miss Influencer Marketing Event!
Monday, May 20, 2024
Join us on June 25th. Marketing Brew Perfecting Your Influencer IQ Event Image Hi Marketing Brew reader, Are you ready to delve into the dynamic world of influencer marketing and discover strategies
Inside Microsoft’s Build developer conference | Off-road autonomous driving startup lands $10M
Monday, May 20, 2024
Former Expedia CTO issues statement following ouster | WeWork to keep more space in Seattle ADVERTISEMENT GeekWire SPONSOR MESSAGE: Register now for AWS re:Inforce: Hear from AWS experts on all things