In some ways, the 2024 campaign has felt like performance art. The candidates are campaigning — or at the least the one candidate not stuck in the courthouse for a criminal trial. The campaigns and Super PACs are running tens of millions of dollars of ads. The media is covering every twist and turn, and political junkies on both sides are posting online at a fevered pace. Yet, the race seems stuck in the mud. Maybe the polls move a point here or there, but public perception of the candidates the economy, and the election's stakes have been mostly static for a year now.

This dynamic is particularly present on the abortion issue. Recent moments have demonstrated the impact of the Dobbs ruling and the danger a second Trump term poses, including:

• The Alabama Supreme Court decision on IVF;

• An extreme ban going into effect in Florida;

• A Supreme Court hearing about whether hospitals in states with total abortion bans are required to perform an abortion if it’s required to save a woman’s life;

• Trump announcing that he would support even the most extreme ban; and

• The since repealed Arizona ban based on an 1864 law written before women could vote or Arizona was a state.

The Biden Campaign is massively outspending Trump on TV and digital ads; and 90% of those ads mention abortion. Given the central role that abortion played in the 2022 and 2023 elections, it’s fair to ask why these momentous events haven’t shifted the race. Polling, however, is often like a duck on water — still on the surface, but with frenetic motion underneath.

A new poll from Navigator Research shows that the Biden Campaign’s abortion messaging is changing people’s perceptions of Trump in really important ways. Here’s what it says:

1. More Voters See Trump as Anti-Abortion

Because he is a known philanderer from Manhattan currently on trial for crimes related to an affair with an adult film star, Trump doesn’t exactly code as your typical “Moral Majority” anti-abortion crusader...