Finimize - ⚡️ Walmart's coming for Amazon

What’s going on here?

Walmart announced better-than-expected quarterly sales and profit on Wednesday, as Americans tried to make their grocery bills Get Low.

What does this mean?

Walmart’s “comparable sales” – measured only in the stores open this time last year – were 3.9% higher last quarter than a year ago, beating the 3.4% that analysts had predicted. And the company didn’t just have its regular customers to thank, although they did pay more visits to their favorite retailer. Walmart also won over new shoppers, including high-income earners exploring their thrifty sides. That helps explain why the grocery giant upped its expectations for the entire year. Investors felt the call to go shopping, sending the stock up after the results.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: Seeing double.

Ecommerce rival Amazon is a triple threat, aiming to deliver quality at manageable prices, and fast. That playbook has been working well for Walmart, too. After adding more products to its website and trimming down delivery times, its ecommerce businesses made 22% more quarterly revenue than the same time last year. Walmart has even built up a high-margin advertising business, similar to Amazon’s moneymaker, which picked up 24% last quarter from a year ago.

The bigger picture: The canaries in the coal mine are singing different songs.

Huge companies like Walmart are known as “bellwethers” for the US economy: their success or failure tends to indicate the general spending patterns of millions of Americans. Thing is, Walmart’s good news was canceled out by another bellwether. Deere & Co slashed its annual profit forecast for the second time this year on Wednesday. The world’s biggest farm equipment manufacturer blamed dwindling demand for tractors, a knock-on effect of falling crop prices. That suggests parts of the US economy are slowing down, which could encourage the Federal Reserve to cut rates to prop them up.

What’s going on here?

Data out on Thursday showed that Japan’s economy shrank by more than expected last quarter, as the yen slipped against the US dollar once again.

What does this mean?

Japan’s economy was 2% smaller last quarter than at the same time a year ago – a worse outcome than the 1.5% decline economists had predicted. That has a lot to do with the fact that consumer spending – which makes up more than half of Japan’s economy – has fallen into its longest downturn since 2009, with folk shelling out a lot less than expected last quarter.

Why should I care?

For markets: Retail isn’t therapeutic right now.

The yen has weakened against the dollar, hitting a 34-year low earlier this year. That means the country’s shoppers get less value for their money in international markets, so buying the same amount of food and energy from abroad hurts their bank balances a little more. On top of that, the Bank of Japan pulled interest rates out of the negatives in March, increasing them for the first time since 2007 and making it more expensive to borrow money. And at the same time, inflation-adjusted Japanese wages have been falling for two years straight. No wonder the country’s slimming shopping lists.

The bigger picture: A weak yen isn’t all bad.

Analysts estimate that Japan’s finance ministry has spent around $59 billion to prop up the currency. And after this week’s US inflation data made a stateside rate cut look more likely, the yen picked up a little against the dollar. (Lower interest rates tend to mean a lower currency, remember.) Mind you, not everyone will want to see the end of the lull. Japan’s tourism industry should benefit from overseas vacationers jumping at the chance to get more bang for their buck with every bullet train trip, anime café meal, and cup of matcha. Plus, the country’s exporters might be more popular since their wares will look cheaper to buyers abroad.