Finimize - 🇮🇳 India has voted

What’s going on here?

India’s wild ride to new market highs hit a stomach-dropping pothole on Tuesday, as election tallies pointed to something well shy of a landslide victory for the ruling party.

What does this mean?

Indian stocks had been rallying hard, with the sitting prime minister expected to easily pull off a historic hat trick – securing a third term that would promise more infrastructure-led economic growth and investor-pleasing market reforms. Stellar economic news helped sweeten the mood, with India’s output expanding faster than any major rival. And the cherry on top: S&P Global Ratings took its first step toward an upgrade for the country’s credit rating, which would make India’s government bonds more attractive to global investors and lower its borrowing costs.

Why should I care?

Zooming out: Indi-yeah.

India’s got plenty of bright spots. It’s a core beneficiary of the global supply chain’s pivot away from China: analysts estimate that its exports will nearly double by 2030, which could be very good for the country’s stocks. But those shares already are among the priciest in Asia, and that’s got some people feeling cautious. What’s more, it was never going to be easy for the government to push through big reforms in property and labor laws – the changes investors view as crucial to India’s growth. And without a resounding win, those battles could become even harder.

The bigger picture: Political rallies.

India isn’t the only country heading to the polls this year: at least 40 national elections are on the calendar, impacting over 40% of the world’s population and economy. And, of course, that includes the US. But if ballot-year investing has you on edge, relax. History shows that stocks usually perform better post-vote than during the uncertain lead-up. Plus, US markets have a knack for bouncing back strong, no matter who wins. So while the political drama may have folks twisted in knots, your investments might just keep on thriving.

What’s going on here?

Billionaire Bill Ackman sold a 10% slice of his Pershing Square hedge fund to a group of investment houses and family offices as he prepared the firm for a stock debut.

What does this mean?

That piece of the firm, which sold for $1.05 billion, puts Pershing’s overall value at over $10 billion – a pretty penny when you consider the fact that it manages just $16 billion. But what sets this hedge fund apart is that almost all its assets are “permanent capital” – in other words, it doesn’t allow for withdrawals. And because of that, Pershing’s annual fee income is a lot easier to predict. The stake sale sets the stage for the hedge fund to go public, with an initial public offering (IPO) likely to happen in 2025 or 2026.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: Big plans.

Pershing Square already has a publicly listed fund in London and Amsterdam, and now it’s looking to launch two in the US, aiming to raise a combined $30 billion. The bigger of the two – known as Pershing Square USA – is expected to attract interest from US retail investors. The move would nearly triple the fee-generating assets the firm manages. And that could, in turn, help to justify its curiously high valuation, smoothing the road to an IPO.

The bigger picture: Bucking trends.

Passive funds have been beating active funds – hands down – in recent years, providing better returns and at much lower fees. Mind you, Ackman’s Pershing Square has been an exception: it’s managed to produce high returns, even after its chunky fees. That performance, along with the firm’s strong name recognition and big social media presence, could bode well for its planned new suite of offerings.